Foreecon

2010: Year in Dave

2011-01-26T22:11:00.005-05:00

For those of you not in the know, this blog is now mostly the public face of my Spreadsheet Journal, the Excel spreadsheet in which I write down just about everything about my daily life that I can think of. Every place I go, every person I meet, how much I work, what I eat, how I spend my free time, and how I feel and what I think about things. And a lot of other stuff as well.

It's like a little girl's diary, but beefed up and made manly. Also I call it a journal.

Sounds exciting, right? Oh, it is. But what's even more exciting than tracking and entering all this mundane life data is reading about it. And that's my gift to you.

Just kidding, 99% of this will bore you to death. Or if not to death, then to not-reading-it-any-more. But perhaps you may find something interesting buried in here about someone else's life that makes you feel a little less weird about the things you do. Or, if you ate plain spaghetti more than 57 times last year, maybe a little more weird...

Mood

We'll start out with the subjective stuff.

Every day of 2010 I picked a number from 0 to 7 to describe my mood for the day.

Why a 0-7 scale? Well, how many obviously distinct moods does someone have? I guessed eight. Two extreme ends (0 = worst feeling of my life lasting all day long, 7=feeling better than ever before), two less extreme, two numbers for days that are noticeably worse or better than average, and numbers 3 & 4 for days that are just Average(-) or Average(+). But all integers, which forced me to avoid calling my mood for the day simply average, and to decide whether or not a day is subtly worse or better than my perception of average.

Or so I guessed. Here's how it turned out:

Average mood for the year was slightly above average, at 54.7%. That's 3.8 out of 7. I made a prediction in January that I would average out at 50%, since using the concept of "average mood" as the relative comparison of all moods, my mood should be "average" over a long enough time period.

But maybe not. In the graph above, you'll see that in mid-July there is a noticeable drop in mood that lasts until the end of the year, and there is a gradually downward sloping moving average (red line) throughout the year. It's pretty clear something (or lots of things) changed throughout the year, isn't it?

So what caused this?

Was it the weather? Perhaps I am happier when it's warmer, or when the temperature is prime for going out and enjoying the city...? Let's check. I crudely pasted on an inverse temperature (in DC) graph here:

If the following is correct: "My mood is highest when the temperature is 'just right'," then the lowest mood points should be at the ends and in the middle. But that's not the case.

So maybe it's something else... Maybe it's what I eat.

I went through a few comparisons of foods & moods before I came up with this one. Here's another graph including how often I stayed home and ate Chicken Bagel Sandwiches (see "Food" section) for dinner:

...Hmmmmm, compelling... But while there's no obvious positive or negative correlation, there is a volatility correlation. When I go through an Eating Chicken Bagel Sandwiches at Home phase (black line beneath the red one in the graph), it appears my mood swings pretty wildly. It's very often peaking at the top or the bottom (see September-November) during these phases. That's somewhat compelling, yeah?

While there's not a lot of evidence for this, I'm going to say it anyway: Perhaps eating Chicken Bagel Sandwiches makes me emotional.

Or alternatively, maybe being manic makes me crave the deliciousness that is the toasted bagel, the juicy chicken breast, and the wonderful, wonderful cream cheese combination. Ohhhh, yeah...

But there are two other explanations that make a bit more sense:

1) I didn't understand what my average mood was until I spent a few months plotting the upper and lower limits. Starting out higher than it should have been in January (by chance, or by a desire to blindly assume my mood was good each day) and ending closer to the "real" number.

2) Or perhaps this study about how vacations affect happiness is true, since we spent many months planning and looking forward to a 12 day trip in July. And notice that upon our return on July 14th, my mood numbers went clearly down to a new low level and lasted until the end of the year.

The article states that "...the largest boost in happiness comes from the simple act of planning a vacation" and "...After the vacation, happiness quickly dropped back to baseline levels."

If "baseline levels" for me were around 50%, perhaps a large part of my year's mood can be explained by just this one theory. Doubtful... but intriguing, yeah?

Or maybe, more likely, it's a combination of all that stuff and more. Weather and chicken bagel sandwiches included.

---

But what else can one do with a year-long daily mood data set?

One can find correlations between words used to describe the day and the mood of that day. So I made a list of of words I used throughout the year and their correlation with my mood.

And before you judge me, remember the sentence "I love a wonderful beer," and consider that nights in which I say that or its variations are nights in which I'm doing something I really enjoy. Now read on:

Most positively associated words:
0.240 Beer
0.221 Wonderful
0.179 Love
0.178 Great
0.176 Roof
0.169 We Left
0.131 Late
0.127 Arrived
0.120 Fun
0.117 Birthday (Other peoples birthdays are always good days...)
0.116 India (as in "Taste of India," see Restaurants section)
0.110 Mexican
0.110 Thai (It's strange that three food types [Indian, Mexican and Thai] are so similarly correlated, isn't it?)
0.108 Like
0.100 Wine
0.056 Spicy
0.054 Early
0.020 Sandwich
0.017 Happy (Unexpected neutrality here...)

Most negatively associated words:
-0.029 Chicken
-0.040 Cleaning
-0.042 Angry
-0.052 Hate
-0.054 Jog
-0.064 Day (When I talk about my 'day', I'm probably talking about a work day...)
-0.069 Bagel
-0.079 Sore
-0.083 Exercise
-0.092 Unhappy
-0.103 Bedtime (negativity expected)
-0.103 Vegetables (also expected, but only because I each vegetables more often on weeknights...)
-0.110 Couldn't Sleep
-0.113 Worked
-0.152 Tired
-0.157 Sick
-0.163 Hungover
-0.190 Laundry

Apparently doing laundry is worse than working, being tired, sick or hungover, going to bed and eating vegetables. That was unexpected. I must really like having clean clothes...

It's a good thing I try to space out my laundry nights:

Interestingly, you'll see that I did laundry more often in the last half of the year, when my overall average mood was lower...

---

And which day of the week was I the happiest, on average?

Friday, then Saturday, then Thursday. We all already that Fridays are best. But now I've got some hard(ish) data to prove it.

Travel

As with most things, this can be shown most efficiently with a graph:

1. Charlottesville, VA (March)
Laura and I spent the weekend celebrating two years of dating each other at a bed and breakfast by Monticello, Thomas Jefferson's old stompin' grounds. Took a tour of his house. Went to a few wine tastings (my first), ate at a few restaurants around town (Charlottesville has a nice mall, surprisingly), and had my first szechuan peppercorn experience. See March's blog post for more details.

2. New York, NY (March)
Later in March I met an old friend in New York and spent the long weekend drinking at many, many Irish bars, eating some interesting food (see Ninja New York) seeing all the necessary New York things, including the Broadway show Chicago (Verdict: Not that great, but fun), Grant's Tom, Tom's Restaurant and the usual others. Good times all around.

3. Tucson and Holbrook, Arizona (April)
Went back home for my dad's 60th birthday. Hung out with the whole family, ate birthday cake and drank birthday tequila. It was a pretty nice celebration, in fact.

4. Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming,
Montana and just a touch of Idaho (July)

Laura and I flew to Vegas, rented a convertible and drove 3,000+ miles all around the western half of the U.S. This was our annual trip, as Laura and I have decided to do one big one every year for the duration of our thing-we-gots-goin'-on. It was a wooooooonderful trip. See the post for the details.

5. Atlantic City, NJ (October)
Laura and I and a few friends spent the weekend eating, drinking, playing $0.05 Diamond Run slot machines, walking the boardwalk, riding a Ferris wheel, exploring their lighthouse and finally going skydiving (my first time). I have to say, skydiving was quite the thing. Highly recommended to anyone and everyone.

6. Ann Arbor, MI (November)
For Laura's birthday, we went back to her college town and spent a 3-day weekend. Saw a Michigan football game, went to Laura's favorite bar with 70 beers on tap (!), watched an amateur hockey game, toured the UofM campus (nice place) and downtown Ann Arbor, went to an art museum, ate at an amazing deli called Zingerman 's and even got to meet a large number of her college friends. Quite the trip.

7. Phoenix and Holbrook, AZ (December)
Went home for Christmas for another 6 day trip. It was the first time I'd gone back in many, many years, and it was nicer than ever. I usually head back for Thanksgiving, but this year I switched it up a bit. Details here.

Food

For those who wrote in requesting "A list of 75+ things which are almost completely unimportant to me," I present a ranking of all the restaurants that I visited over the past year, starting with the best and moving down.

Unless otherwise noted, the place is in DC:

1. Komi
2. Great Wall Szechuan
3. Ruth's Chris Steakhouse
4. Ninja New York - NY
5. Taste of China - Charlottesvilla, VA
6. Thaiphoon
7. Rosemary's Thyme
8. 2 Amys
9. Bizou - Charlottesvilla, VA
10. Mai Thai
11. Pho 75
12. Lindy's Red Lion
13. Angelico Pizza (Delivery Only)
14. Chinatown Express
15. Pokey's BBQ - Gillette, WY
16. Bistrot du Coin
17. Aria Buffet - Las Vegas
18. Dukem
19. Madjet
20. Himalayan Heritage
21. China Star - Fairfax, VA
22. Charlie Chiang's
23. Julia's Empanadas (Take out)
24. Zingerman's - Ann Arbor, MI
25. El Rancho - Holbrook, AZ
26. Etete
27. Zengo
28. Little India
29. Hard Times - Alexandria, VA
30. Sichuan Pavilion
31. Silver Spring Mining Co - Baltimore, MD
32. Congee Village - NY
33. Nam-Viet
34. The Local - Charlottesville, VA
35. Mandalay Restaurant
36. Mama Ayesha's
37. Taste of India
38. The Diner
39. Casa Oaxaca
40. Lincoln's Waffe Shop
41. Romos - Holbrook, AZ
42. Lebanese Taverna
43. Rosie's - Gardiner, MT
44. Inti
45. Selam
46. Pizza Paradiso
47. Tono Sushi
48. Kabob Palace, Arlington, VA
49. Alero
50. Humphrey's - Gillette, WY
51. Odeon
52. Wayside - Holbrook, AZ
53. Seva - Ann Arbor, MI
54. Ignight - Jackson, WY
55. Skewers
56. Wolfgang Puck Bar & Grill - Las Vegas
57. John's Pizzeria - NY
58. Dim Sum Ping Pong
59. Banana Leaves
60. Native New Yorker - Show Low, AZ
61. Rajaji
62. El Palacio - Kingman, AZ
63. Nando's Peri Peri
64. Thai Chef
65. Buca di Beppo
66. Angelo's Pizza - NY
67. El Rincon
68. Sbarro - NY
69. Geets Restaurant - Williamstown, NJ
70. Spaghetti Garden
71. Pier de Orleans - Mesa, AZ
72. BGR
73. Michie Tavern - Charlottesville, VA
74. Thai Roma
75. California Tortilla
76. Virginia City Restaurant - Atlantic City, NJ
77. Rainforest Cafe - Atlantic City, NJ

My apologies to Atlantic City's Rainforest Cafe. But seriously, I didn't get to eat a single endangered rainforest creature, which was very disappointing. I was mislead.

As for total number of restaurants visited (including repeats) in context of the last couple years, here's your graph:

Number of restaurants visited by year:

2008: 92
2009: 94
2010: 97

2010 wins. Next year I hope to get to a million.

The place I went to most? Thaiphoon (I was literally addicted to their Panang Curry for a large part of the year. And by literally, I mean I sought help and now attend meetings. Curry Panongnymous meetings.)

Also, Thaiphoon wins the Most Emotional Website Music Award - see the link.

Favorite restaurant that is not Komi: Great Wall Szechuan House

I am craving Great Wall food all the time. Now, for example. It is so spicy, so tasty, so unique, and so Szechuan-Peppercorn-y that I just cannot live without it. Which brings to mind an interesting question right now, as I type this blog post: Suicide, or call for delivery?

...Maybe both? That would be interesting... And it brings to mind another point: When I die, I would like to be buried in Ma La Wontons.

Related: In looking for a good link for this place, I found some informative reviews online:

"horrible horrible horrible - Racist...‎‎" (Link) And "Cast your dancing spell my way, I promise to go under it." (Link)

Not my experience there, but valuable information nonetheless.

Best DC Tourist Friendly Restaurant: 2 Amys Pizza

The pizza, drink list and atmosphere there are just tops. Runner up: Ray's Hellburger. Nowhere else (that I've been) offers both Cave Aged Chedder and Bone Marrow as potential toppings for burgers, nor tastes as good as Ray's Hellburger. Funny, I just realized I forgot to go to there this year...

And a special bonus: Frequency graph showing when I went to a restaurant in 2010.

Dead spots at the end of March, May, August and at the beginning of December. What could it all mean?!?!?!

-- Eating In --

While it would have been very possible to list what I ate every single day of 2010, I figure this is actually beyond the limit of boring data. I mean, the restaurant list above serves only the purpose of showing that I wasn't making crap up (and, at best, that someone may go to one of those restaurants toward the top and credit me, or avoid the ones at the bottom and be vaguely thankful). But listing 365 days of meals is over the top. Right? ...Yes... ...Right... I'll be honest: I had second thoughts there for a minute. But yes, no, no, there's no need for that...

So instead I'll just list the top three by frequency. So here they are, the three things I ate the most at home in 2010.

1. Spaghetti - Eaten at home 57 days in 2010.

57 days! Wow. Usually plain, too, with just a bit of butter and salt. Related: From ages 5 (or so) until about 13, I would eat a grilled cheese sandwich at Wayside restaurant in Holbrook, Arizona every single time we went there. And we went there a lot. Like dozens and dozens of times per year... For many, many years... Lots of grilled cheeses... Clearly there's something going on there.

2. Peanut Butter & Jelly Sandwich - Eaten for 54 days.

Related: See above story about how much of a weird damn kid I was, and how apparently weird I still am. But PB&Js have so much going for them: quick, cheap, tasty and peanut buttery. But really, it's the latter variable that's most important, in many aspects of life, not just this one.

3. Chicken Bagel Sandwich - Eaten 52 days in 2010.

Related: See above story.

But honestly, Chicken Bagel Sandwiches are reeeeeeally good. And it's not just chicken and bagel - it's got cream cheese too. What is a Chicken Bagel Sandwich, you ask? ...Did you ask that? ... ... No? All right then...

Drink

Let's do this in reverse. First up, frequency graph!

Here are nights I spent out at a bar(s) throughout 2010:

No obvious patterns. ...Except of course the most obvious of them all: Thanksgiving and Christmas were bar-free. Haulidays, am I right?

...Correct answer: "No, I don't know what that means."

Total number of bars visited by month in 2010:

Looks like more than usual. But in fact it is not, it's just less evenly distributed. July was quite the month...

Yearly totals:

2008: 46
2009: 76
2010: 68

---

Wine was mostly a new thing for me this year. Well, it really started in Italy back in 2009, but this year I kicked it into high gear following a wine tasting (my first) in Charlottesville, VA in March. After that I started ranking every bottle and taking pictures of the labels. Why? I don't know, why do people do anything?

I tell myself it's because I enjoy a challenge. That it's exciting to figure out the details of new wines and look for patterns within an endless number of variables, especially with senses (smell, taste, feel on the tongue) that I'm not used to using.

And because I tell myself this, I'm going to assume I'm not lying to myself, and that I'm not getting into wine just to impress people (present & future). And why would I lie to me? Of all the people who shouldn't be lying to me about stuff, it's me.

So there, now that that's settled, here are my wine rankings for the year, starting with my three least favorite wines I tried in 2010:

3. Villa Cerrina - Chardonnay / Pinot Grigio (blend) 2008
This was really not that terrible, but something had to be toward the bottom of the list, right? I mean, wine's generally pretty tasty, even the "bad" stuff. But if you're going to buy something with your moneys, don't buy this.

2. La Granja - Tempranillo 2008
This one reminded me of why I used to think wine was undrinkable. But of course it's hard to describe what that was. But I know it when I drink it. I think...

1. Gouder - Red Wine

Got this at an Ethiopian restaurant on U Street (Dukem) out of the desire to try an Ethiopian red wine (the whites - Honey Wine - are fairly interesting). I'll tell you: It's not that good. On the good wine scale, it's toward the bottom due to tasting like some sort of chemical spill. I had another glass at a different restaurant later on to double check, but nope. No good. But on the Interesting So You Should Try This Once Scale, it was actually at the top in 2010. So, actually, I highly recommend it.

And I included a a picture so you can go buy a bottle, try it once and then not drink the rest of it.

And here are the 2010 favorites:

3. Pinot Noir, Camelot 2007 - $8 (any store) -- Well worth $8.00, and you can buy this literally everywhere. Wherever you are, just look around. Where are you? Do you see it? If it's not there, keep looking, you'll find it.

2. Cabernet Sauvignon, Rock & Vine 2007 - $18 (online) -- Napa Valley, Bordeaux-style 76% Cabernet Sauvignon, 17% Merlot + friends. Damn good, especially when consumed at an outside table on 18th Street at Rosemary's Thyme in the fall in DC.

1. Haut-Medoc Bordeaux, Chateau Beaumont 2005 - $22 (online) -- This sealed the deal for Bordeaux wines for me... It's just great to drink. I will claim that it's not possible for a [casual] wine drinker to not like this one.

Top 5 Favorite Moments of 2010

- February 6th: Bundling up and walking down to Dupont Circle in a city almost completely shut down by snow due to Snowpocalypse II and watching hundreds of people participate in the largest snowball fight I've ever seen (video in this post)

- April 16th: In Holbrook for my dad's 60th birthday, staying up late with my dad and brother, talking for hours and hours about my dad's life and getting to know each other (it seemed like it had been a long, long time since we'd all had a good chat).

(No picture, sadly)

- June 12th: Drinking tequila and watching the sunset on the roof of our apartment building with friends to celebrate my 28th birthday. Man, that was a perfect day.

- July 8th: Laura and I driving with the convertible top down over Beartooth Pass in Montana. I knew at the time I'd be missing that experience later on, and boy was I right - the place is incredibly gorgeous. Having a snowball fight in July was a special bonus.

- October 17th: Jumping (well, being nudged by the guy strapped to my back) out of an airplane at 13,000 feet, seeing the ground way, way below me and thinking, "Oh shit, I'm falling!" It was about 10 seconds of the most unparalleled mix of fear and excitement that I've ever felt. Then terminal velocity kicked in...

(No picture. But I didn't want to pay the extra $100. Maybe next time...)

Exercise

2010 was a milestone for the Davis. I started jogging for the first time ever. While 2009 was the Year of the Situp (10,800 situps in 2009!) 2010 was the Year of the Jogging.

The last time I ran a mile or more was around age 13, about 15 years ago. And if I recall, it took me around 8 and a half minutes. Though I just made that number up.

And when I started running in March (if you could call it running), I was out of shape and constantly out of breath. Laura and I would jog for a bit, maybe 60 seconds at a time, then walk for a couple minutes. Then jog again, then walk. And so on. And we did that for months.

From our first jog-walk on Saturday, March 13th to the end of August six months later, we went from doing just under 3 miles in 45 minutes to doing just under 3 miles in 40 minutes. That's an improvement of just about nothing. But it felt like it was getting easier - We'd go two or three times a week, on average, and while we were constantly out of breath at first, by August it was a cakewalk, and we did not dread going jogging at all like we did when we started.

And the exercise felt really, really good. I hadn't felt that 'healthy' feeling for ... more than a decade, I think... The funny part, though, is that I wasn't losing weight - I was getting more chubsy:

But to be fair, I used the fact that I was getting more exercise as an excuse to drink more wine and eat more chocolate (and all food, for that matter). And boy did it all taste better without the guilt!

But once the weather cooled down a bit in September, we knocked it up a notch. I got a GPS tracker app on my iPhone and finally had the inspiration to push myself a little harder. It's surprising how much keeping track of data can help you want to create more data...

While the time it took Laura and I to get through a ~3 mile course did not change much from March to August, once we got serious in September we sped up quickly:

Also in September I started running extra, leaving Laura to run however fast she wanted while I went at my own pace. Which was something I couldn't (didn't want to) do before I kept track of my mileage and speed.

For comparison, I was going at about a 15 minute per mile pace in March-August, and by the end of September I was at about 10 minutes per mile.

And by October 6th I had run my first non-stop 5K. 3.1 miles, and I did it in 27 minutes (8:42 minutes per mile average), which I was pretty proud of. Surprisingly proud, actually. It's strange how we're often not aware of what we're really into until you look back. If someone had asked me what I was up to - what my major interests were - back in October, I wouldn't have said "running." But now I realize that was a primary focus for me at the end of 2010.

And from there I just slowly got better, working on increasing my average speed for 5K runs for the next few months.

And by the end of the year on December 29th, I ran it in just under 24 minutes, or a 7:40 minute/mile pace.

So from a 224-pound, somewhat lazy dude jogging 15-minute miles at the beginning of August, I became a less lazy dude running 7.7 minute miles, weighing 25 pounds less by December and feeling pretty damn good about it. I never expected to be the kind of person who would say this, but I should say it: Running is awesome.

Total miles jogged in 2010: 311.1

And here's the monthly breakdown:

I hope no 'real' runners are reading this. I'm sure these are totally n00b numbers. But give it time... Hopefully 2011 will continue the trend. Or perhaps I'll get into something new. One never knows.

Other 2010 Statistics

Number of haircuts: 6

Movies watched in theaters: 4
(Compared to 9 theater movies seen in 2009)

Up in the Air
Avatar
Lives of Others (favorite movie of the year, by the way)
Ghostbusters (yes, the original. Watched at midnight)

Movies watched at home: 38

Days in which I spent (any amount of) time with Laura: 331

The gaps were due to:

Laura trip to South Africa (January)
Laura trip to San Antonio, TX (February)
Dave trip to New York, NY (March)
Dave trip to Arizona (April)
Laura trip to Ithaca, NY (May)
Laura trip to Pittsburgh (July)
Laura trip to Chicago (August)
Laura trip to Michigan (October)
Dave trip to Arizona (December)

Relative daily spending (not including rent):

Pretty even pattern of major expenditures, isn't there? About once every 3 months...

Complete series watched: 2
Firefly
The Wire

Top 5 Favorite TV Shows of 2010:
House
Mad Men
Pawn Stars
Good Eats
Reruns of 3rd Rock from the Sun

Major Dave Activities of 2010 - One could call these hobbies:

Jan-Dec: Data Tracking (The greatest activity of them all...)
Jan-Feb: Building a Website (This is actually still technically in progress, but I finished it in Feb.)
March-Dec: Jogging
March-Dec: Wine
Sept-Dec: Learning French (future vacation planning)

And speaking of hobbies - the remains of an old one:

Total hours spent playing piano in 2010: 15
Well, it's a keyboard - I do live in an apartment after all... And for the record, that averages to more than 2 minutes a day. Go me.

Number of times I dislocated
my elbow in 2010: 1 One crappy, crappy time. It ended my reign of push-ups and took months to recover. Fourth time I dislocated it, too. The first was in the year 2000, second was in 2006, third in 2008 and fourth 2009. Clearly they are occurring closer and closer together... NOOOOOOO!

Worst month of the year (by average mood): September
Why? Probably just a lot of days staying home and jogging. There were some great days in there, though. But some pretty low-mood days too... averages count.

Best month of the year (by average mood): April
Why? Took a long-ish vacation, the weather was great and I was just getting into some new hobbies. Or perhaps it's a fluke (see 'Mood' section at top).

Worst day of the year (by mood & other circumstances): January 23rd.
It was a Saturday, but I spend the whole day working, followed by an entire evening of trying to install a video card driver on Ubuntu, and failed miserably. Then went to sleep and went back to work the next day (on Sunday!!)

Best day of the year (by mood & other circumstances): March 6th
Spend the day with Laura in Charlottesville, touring Thomas Jefferson's house, visiting multiple wineries and doing tastings, followed by an excellent dinner and an evening by the fireplace in a bed and breakfast by Monticello. Great mood, great day with great stuff happening. It's the winner.

Best Photos of 2010

January

Started off the year with this group - Good people, all.

The view of the crowd waiting for a burlesque show at Palace of Wonders on H Street, from the balcony above.

February

Snopocalypse II. Across the street from my apartment, a tree had fallen on top of the snow on top of a car, and it was cold on top of that. Triple whammy. Quite the scene in DC.
Bad picture, I know, but it's my favorite non-snow picture of the month. That's Laura on the balcony of the main stage of the Kennedy center during the intermission to Sleeping Beauty, the ballet. Kennedy's head in the background down there.

March

See "Best Day of the Year" in the Other Stats section above. This was the fireplace in our room at the bed & breakfast by Monticello, with a glass full of water for effect. Yes, it's water - we were out of wine by this point in the evening, but we still wanted to sit by the fire and drink out of wine glasses. Makes for a nice picture.

My good friend Stephen from Arizona during his first visit to New York City, looking out from the 102nd floor of the Empire State Building. It's one impressive city, you know

April

The Tidal Basin during the Cherry Blossom Festival in DC. Laura and I took a break by the water for a bit in between walking through the massive crowds underneath the pink trees.

My dad barbecuing for day three of his 60th birthday celebration back in Holbrook, AZ. Ah, summertime in Arizona (starts in March).

May

Hanging out on the back porch of my friend OtherDave's house on 17th Street. The feeling of summer in DC (starts in May) is so drastically different than the feeling of winter here. It's like two different cities. Something I never thought of in Arizona. I love it.

Laura took me kayaking on the Potomac for my first kayaking experience. It was actually a lot of fun. And extremely memorable. Good view of the Lincoln from here.

June

We went on a wine tour in Maryland, and decided to buy a bottle and sit in the front yard of the winery's tasting room (house) and chill. And chill we did. Good friends, good views, good wine, good weather. Good times.

Watched the US vs. England World Cup game with a large crowd of hooligans in Dupont Circle. Largest TV watching party I've ever been to.

July

That's me, the convertible and monument valley in the background. Laura and I drove through the valley at sunset with the top down, listening to music loudly and enjoying the hell out of existence.

Our usual Thursday summer happy hour tradition at Tom Tom during a rain storm. This picture really reminds me of drinking Sam Adams Summer Ale being wet and sticky - oh, the humidity during a summer rain storm in DC

August

The city reduced their fountain maintenance efforts this year for some reason, leaving the water to take it's mossy revenge against the Dupont Circle fountain. Still gorgeous, I'd say.

Thursday happy hour with the friends at Tom Tom in Adams Morgan, this time without the rain storm. We went here every Thursday for five months, with only one break for vacation in July. $3 drinks can really reinforce a traditions, it seems.

September

The view of the west Mall from the top of the Washington Monument. Laura has never been up to the top of it, and had to work this day when I went with some old friends. And she didn't want to see this picture when I offered to show her the view, so it wouldn't ruin it for her. So maybe she won't see it. But I suppose this will be a good test to see if she reads her boyfriend's very long year-end blog post, huh?

That's Firefly on the TV, oyster crackers on the plate, chocolate in the bowl (hand made by Laura, by the way) and four glasses of different red wine. There's really no better way to do wine comparisons.

October

It was cold outside, it was early in the morning and we were all extremely tired, and the six of us had no idea what to expect from this skydiving introduction video, nor from the flying in a plane and jumping out of it part of the experience either. I was a bit nervous by this point. But it was certainly exciting.

I killed it! It was no match for me.

November

This was the second best picture I took while jogging this month, or so my October post implies. View from the Taft Bridge down into Rock Creek Park.

Two of my favorite things: Laura and a table full of Szechuan food. That's Twice Cooked Pork and Eggplant in Garlic Sauce from Great Wall Szechuan House in DC, currently my favorite place in the universe.

December

State Christmas trees by the White House tree with the Monument in the background. My least favorite thing about this experience? The cold. Second least? The fact that all the state trees look pretty much the same.

My family at Christmas this year, except my brother (sorry to leave you out, brother) who was behind the camera. Love you guys!

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That's it. That, my friends, is what I did in 2010.

Decem4er 2010

2011-01-02T13:21:00.026-05:00

I promise this is the last time I'm going to put the number 4 in a post title.

Why? I received a written notice from the Stupid Police warning me to discontinue the practice, or else they'd have to resort to knife-juggling...

Well, since I know you're all waiting for the Davis 2010 Year End Update, I'll make this December month-end update short and sweet. Really, really sweet.

The Stats

Average Mood: 53% Positive

Restaurants: 9

Bars: 2
That's a two year record low!

Haircuts: 1
That's 2 in 30 days. Strange. The balder I get, the fussier I get.

Loads of Laundry: 4
There's a long term pattern developing.

Movies Watched at Home: 5
Three of them were Christmas movies.

Miles Jogged: 40.2
Average MPH: 6.93 mph
Speed Change from November: +14%

Weight at End of Month: 199 pounds
Weight Change from November 30: -6 pounds

The Highlights

Friday, December 4
Pearl Harbor Day / Birth-Remembrance Party for two of these three characters (it was not the bomber pilot's birthday):
I would describe the very memorable event, but I do not want to offend my sizable WWII veteran demographic. I will say this, however: we had a surprisingly, explosively, screamingly bloody good time.

Wednesday, December 8
Saw Eric Felten Jazz Orchestra play their jazz version of the entire Nutcracker Suite at Blues Alley. Of all the jazz orchestra remakes of Christmas ballets that I've seen, this was the best. The stage after the performance showed the usual jazz-orchestra fallout:

Friday, December 10
First engagement party (of two this month) for friends. Yes, there were two. I am now... at... that age... where everyone I know gets engaged. This makes four for the year...

Saturday, December 11
Went back to Great Wall Szechuan House (see last month's "Best Thing I Ate in November") and were blown away by the szechuan-peppercorniness for the second time:

Tuesday, December 14
On the three year anniversary of the day Laura and I met, she and I went and said our farewells to the place where it happened, a few days before the establishment [Brickskeller] ended it's long run in DC. Learn of the past, my friends: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brickskeller

And by 'farewell,' I mean we tried to get a seat, but couldn't because they didn't have enough servers so we waited around for 15 minutes before we said, "farewell." Romantic.

Friday, December 17
Our official Christmas Night, Third Edition: Laura and I went again to the White House and browsed the 50 states' trees, admired the model train set filled with pennies and nickels circling the White House tree, and warmed ourselves by the bonfire.

...As nice as that all sounds, I should point out that the 50 states' trees are completely lame, and it is almost unbearably cold every year when we do this. No offense, 50 states. And no offense, weather. But really, it's a nice little holiday tradition.

Back at home, we put on a digital fireplace (this one - but with the crappy music muted), turned on the Christmas lights and Christmas music (horrible yet addictive), exchanged gifts, drank wine, and made sugar cookies:

I labeled them for you.

...So in short, we kicked Christmas's ass.

Saturday, December 18
Engagement party #2. This one immediately followed the engagement proposal that occurred in Dupont Circle, which Laura and I actually got to witness due to our master spy abilities. Felt good witnessing a major event in someone's time line...

And the party was great - full of those lucid moments where you are really aware of the uniqueness of the moment; the people and the place and the time period you're in... You know what I mean?

I recreated the image with some stitching:
The engagees are on the far right side, in the midst of the proposal story...

Tuesday, December 21 through Sunday, December 26
Spent the week back at home with the parents. Highlights-within-highlights:

My grandma and mom picked me up at the Phoenix airport. I haven't seen them since July, and apparently, since then, we'd all got the same pair of glasses. What are the odds?

Spent the next five days between my grandma's place in Show Low and my parents' in Holbrook, Arizona. Some sub-highlights-within-highlights highlights:

Tackled many a hot wing with the pops:

Spent some quality time with the grandma, parents and uncle in a doctor-rich environment (Grandma is doing much better now, for the record.)

Speaking of doctors, I had a visit from a certain PhD in Tastiness from the University of ReallyDamnGoodMexicanFood. Her dissertation was on Sopapilla Filled with Meat and Beans Going into Dave's Stomach. A moving piece.

And we had a good ol' fashioned Christmas - the first in at least seven years or so. Everything looked just like it did when I was a kid... Walking into the same room, with the stockings on the floor and the presents under the tree. The mom did a great job with the re-creation. 'Twas an excellent family time.

And speaking of them, here's the bunch, plus the brother who was behind the camera in the first photo:

Holding the bear was a nice touch, mom. Very classy-Christmas-family-ish, yes?

Well done, family.

Thursday, December 30
Finally went to Zoo Lights at the National Zoo. That's where they put lights up... at the Zoo... Here's a panda:

What I never figured out was how they got the animals to sit still all night covered in Christmas lights. But I guess it is the zoo - Circus Animal Training Grounds, amirite? Just kidding, I like the zoo.

Friday, December 31
Last Day of Year #2,010 - It was celebrated.

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And that's it. That wasn't really short at all, was it? But it was indisputably sweet.

Here's a picture keep your cravings for adorableness satisfied until I come back with the Year in Davis 2010 post, which we're all looking forward to. Consider this fair warning to take your socks off in advance.

Novem4er 2010

2010-12-07T22:00:00.004-05:00

You see, the 4 is really just a rotated 'b'...

November Things

Laura and I went to Michigan the first weekend of the month for her birthday. We hung out with some of her college friends in Ann Arbor, saw the city, dressed up and saw a U of M football game, for which I borrowed the requisite gear:
The game was quite the thing. Triple overtime along with a Michigan all-time high scoring record. And the crowd was 114,000 people, which, by the way, ranks third to the top in the Large Crowds In Which Dave Hung Out, August to November 2010 official list.
As you can see, this hooded guy in front of me wasn't interested in the game. I'm guessing he just got stuck in the crowd somewhere, hours before, and ended up in a stadium and couldn't get out. It's probably a pretty common occurrence there...

Best Thing I Ate in November

Ma La Wontons from the Great Wall Szechuan House in DC. They were soaked in Sichuan peppercorns, chili oil and lots of red pepper. Spicy, squishy, and full of pork. I am aching for them now as I write this... [Update: Oh, man, still craving them sooooooo much...] [Editor's Note: AAAAAAAAAAAAA! Neeeeeeeeeed wontons!!]

Best Thing I Drank in November

It was gooooood. And now that you've got this picture, you can go acquire some for yourself. Again, you're welcome.

Best Picture I Took While Jogging

...Fall, it is. The picture is just a way to pretty-up some otherwise extremely boring statistics (boring for those who are not me, me-ish, or who do not suffer from me-ism). And here they are:

Miles Jogged: 30.6
Average Rate: 9:53 Minutes per Mile
Speed: 6.07 MPH
Speed Change from October: -4.5% (A decrease... First time for that...)

Speed decrease be damned, I'm still getting some exercise. Poundage change:

Weight at End of Month: 205 pounds
Change from October: -4 pounds

Best Ex-Peter Chang Restaurant Visited

...If you can't tell, the place is China Star, and it's in a strip mall in Fairfax, VA. See Peter Chang's Wikipedia article for more info, or my blog post from March about another Peter Chang restaurant in Charlottesville called Taste of China. And it's important you see this article on hydroxy alpha sanshool and the effect of Sichuan Peppercorns while you're at it...

Movies

We watched a surprising number this month. In order of goodness, from least liked to totally liked lots:

8. Man From Earth
7. Iron Man 2
6. Alice in Wonderland
5. Winnebago Man
4. Red Corner
3. Up
2. Scott Pilgrim
1. Inception

Up, Scott Pilgrim and Inception are especially recommended. I really got a kick out of the talking dog in Up. Because I am Dorkus.

Thanksgiving

I spent Thanksgiving in DC this year, breaking a long running tradition of going home to Holbrook for the holiday. I missed Arizona and the family, but I had a great time with the 25 people in Laura's extended family that celebrated Thanksgiving at Laura's grandparents' place. Quite the crowd. Good times. Big table.

Other Stats You Care About

Restaurants: 9
Best: Great Wall, see above.
Second Best: Zingerman's (in Michigan)

Bars: 4
Best: Ashley's Bar (Also in Michigan. There were 70+ Beers on tap!)

Loads of Laundry: 4
Continuing the trend...

Average Mood: 50%
Really, exactly 50.0%. I think it's rigged.

Haircuts: 1
Continuing the trend of not getting more than one haircut per month. Hard work, it is...

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Today's Tuesday the 7th. Not too shabby, as far as crankin' out life data after the month-end goes.

We'll be seein' y'alls in January. Now, I know I've got a few weeks to figure this out, but it seems it may be quite vexing - where in "January" does one jam the number 4?

Octo4er 2010

2010-11-10T22:11:00.003-05:00

The new one's out, you guys! And it's 40% more list-form:

Average Mood for the Month: 52%

Restaurants Visited: 13
Bars Visited: 6

Loads of Laundry Done: 4 (a record?)

Movies Watched at Home: 5 (another record?)

Best Wine: Franciscan Cabernet Sauvignon 2006

Haircuts: 0

Miles Jogged: 49.8
Average MPH: 6.36 mph
Weight at End of Month: 209 pounds
Weight Change from September 30: -3 pounds

Best New Food Invented by Girlfriend: Waffles with an egg and ham friend into the waffle by the waffle maker itself. Genius. And tasty. Tastily genius.

Items Checked off Bucket List: 1 - Skydiving

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10 Things Done in October

1. 10/06: Ran my first non-stop 5K - Actually 3.24 miles, to be precise, at a 8:33 min/mile pace. Slow as it may seem, I haven't been able to do that since I was probably 14 years old or so... And in fact, that's just an assumption since I don't believe I've ever tried running more than even a mile without stopping before. Then again, why would I? ...This is apparently what people do with their free time when they get old. Exercise...

2. 10/08: Hung out with my old friend Josh from high school for the weekend. He'd never been to DC, so we toured the city a bit, ate some Turkish and some Ethiopian, reenacted the Reagan shooting and drank a lot of wine. Standard fare. Good times.

3. 10/15: Spent the weekend in Atlantic City.

We walked the boardwalk, did some minor gambling, had a breakfast buffet (required activity in casino cities), climbed 228 steps to the top of a lighthouse, ate pizza and ice cream from the boardwalk shops, rode some carnival rides on the pier, stayed up late and drank. Quite the place - though if you're not much of a gambler, there's not much else to do.

And just behind the northernmost mile of the five mile long boardwalk in Atlantic City are a surprising number of vacant lots and boarded-up houses. It's quite the contrast between the tourist packed boardwalk full of endless shop fronts to the unwelcoming area just a few hundred feet behind it. This picture was taken from the top of the Absecon Lighthouse:

4. 10/17: Skydiving! My first time. I have never in my life had a more exciting few seconds than the first moments after falling out of a plane at 13,000 feet and having that heart-dropping feeling of falling last until you hit terminal velocity. And then you just keep falling. Absolutely incredible. I'd like to do it again, and soon.

I have also never in my life signed my name so many times, and initialed so many warnings and liability releases. This cover page was just the beginning (also the only good picture I got before we went flyin'):

5. 10/22: Dinner at Ruth's Chris Steak House. I had a gift card, so Laura and I spent all of it (plus $6.80) on two dinners (steaks), veal ravioli appetizer, an order of pecan encrusted sweet potatoes, five glasses of wine and a bread pudding dessert. I cannot recommend the potatoes enough... More advice: Avoid the "Ruth's Chris Original" wines. This was, unexpectedly, probably my second favorite meal of the year, after Komi (See June). Quite the tasty ordeal.

6. 10/23: Laura and I carved our first Halloween pumpkin (we'd skipped it the last couple years). We made it two-sided, double-faced, so one side could face the street while the other scared our apartment guests. Guess which face is mine:

7. 10/24: Watched Henry VIII at Folger Theater. It's an experience to see a play at the Folger, but Henry VIII was not so great. The end.

8. 10/28: Ran a 5K in 25:20, 8:17 min/mile pace. Kicked the ass of my [somewhat] slower time earlier in the month. My goal? 3-minute miles. That way I won't spend so much damn time exercising.

9. 10/29: Spent the weekend plus a couple days with my brother and his girlfriend. It was great to have them visit. They were in town to experience the rally (see #10 below), and we got some other things done as well - Dinners: Ethiopian, Himalayan, some gourmet Pizza. Drinks: Some wine bar action, tried some bacon flavored beer (!) at Brickskeller. An unexpected Senor de los Milagros parade (procession, really) on the street in front of our apartment:

And for breakfast one morning we got to cook some EggHamWaffles (see "Best New Food Invented by Girlfriend" above), we were rejected from the metro on our way to the rally on the Mall (it was overcrowded - really), and we even got to play some pool one night. I lost.

Many good times.

10. 10/30: Squeezed into the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear. There were an amazing number of people there. Largest crowd I've ever been squished into. After 30-45 minutes of inching our way forward, Laura and I made it to a few dozen yards behind the furthest-from-the-stage jumbotron...

This was my second giant rally to restore something this year. And fortunately for my overall level of entertainment with the world, neither succeeded.

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Aaaaaaaaaaaaand that's it. Perhaps the new episode will air on time next month. And you know what comes after that? Season finale. Everyone is excited.

Septemboree 2010

2010-10-03T16:30:00.001-04:00

September Foree, Foryou

Davemonth in Numbers

Average mood: 48%
Strange. It didn't feel like a 48% month. It felt like a 52% or even a 53%. But numbers totally do not lie.

Haircuts: 1
Total Haircuts in 2010: 4
Is that normal? Well, by the end of September last year I had 5 haircuts. Conclusion: this is a boring statistic.

Bars visited: 7
Is that normal? Thanks for asking, here's a graph:

Average number of bars visited per month since Jan 2009: 6.3. That's about three bars hit up every two weekends. Sounds about right. And in case you're curious, July's 11 bars visited stat is largely due to Laura and me being in Wyoming for a week.

So yes, it's normal enough. ...Except for all the data collection and graphing, of course...

Restaurants: 9
Ranking from good to best:
Lincoln's Waffle Shop
Casa Oaxaca
Skewers
Chinatown Express (twice)
Etete
Pho 75
Tono Sushi
Rosemary's Thyme

What, no graph?

Laundry: 2 Loads
I'll graph this later.

Situps: 324
Exactly.

Miles jogged: 47.6
Average Speed: 5.31 mph
I finally got a GPS tracker (app), and have started kicking this running thing into high gear. ...October ought to be better.

Aaaaaand, I finally ran my first non-stop 5K (well, close enough: 2.9 miles) in just under 25 minutes, at a 8:40 mins/mile pace. Not bad for a lazy jerk, if I do say so myself. But lots of room for improvement...

Weight at end of month: 212 pounds
Down 9 from August 31. See "Miles Jogged" section above.

Number of nights I had a chicken & cream cheese bagel sandwich (my own tasty, tasty creation) for dinner: 14
Yes, seriously. 14 out of the 30 days of September I had the same [strange] thing for dinner. They're just so damn good. Give 'em a chance.

Number of visits from old friends: 1
My home town & college buddy Travis and his wife Alyssa came to visit at the beginning of the month. We hit some bars and restaurants, did the National Mall, conquered some museums (Spy Museum included), hung out on the roof, ascended the Washington Monument (my first time) and caught up on each others' past two years worth of life-data. I had a wonderful time, and it was great to see them both again.

I didn't get many pictures, but here's my favorite of the few I did - Travis standing next to the Natural History Museum's giant piece of petrified wood on the National Mall, gifted to the Smithsonian by the father of a girl we both knew in high school in Holbrook, Arizona. CONNECTION! Click the pic to see the text:

Episodes of Firefly watched: 10
Including the three watched in August, that's all 13. Verdict: The series was watchable, but not worthy of the incredible praise pretty much everyone I've ever discussed it with has given it... But Travis was correct: The second half of the series did get substantially better.

Which reminds me:
Movies watched: Just 1 - Serenity
It was fairly fun to watch. Not quite enough answering of the plot mysteries of the series, but pretty good.

Pictures of DC you're about to see: 3

The End of Fenty (for mayor signs)

He lost.

Nighttime Rainville

It was rainy.

Sunset during a run over the Taft Bridge

It was sunsetty.

Wines that have been pre-approved by me: 3

Gewurtztraminer - Fetzer 2009
Fairly tasty, though there are better Gewurtzraminers out there.

Merlot - Three Knights 2006
Surprisingly good Merlot. Best I've had yet, I think... Though I the last one I had was likely in 2009...

Chardonnay - Rosenblum Cellars 2007
Above average; smooth and drinkable.

But none were really notable this month. Wait until October...

Wines that have been pre-rejected: 3

Malbec - Alamos 2009
This is the second Malbec that has let me down. But perhaps it's just me...

Montepulciano d’Abruzzo - Villa Cerrina 2009
On one hand, it's really cheap at Trader Joe's. On the other, it's boring (though drinkable).

New museums visited: 2

Spy Museum
In the world of museums, this was an especially interesting place. But only if you remember to think of it as a museum, and not an interactive experience. At $18 per person, it's hard to not assume it's going to be the latter. But if you're expecting your usual museum experience and ignore the entry cost, it's pretty worthwhile.

Building Museum
I'd been wanting to come here for quite some time. And I was pretty substantially disappointed (again with the expectations!) The place is huge, but there are only four small exhibits. I was hoping for a lot more, especially a lot more about architecture in general. 'Twas not delivered. Though it should be noted that the building in which the Building Museum is housed is just gorgeous:

Number of new iPhones I got this month: 1
4. Yes, I'm now an early-ish adopter. For what reason? 5 megapixel camera! Also higher screen resolution vuvuzela emulator, which is a major plus for traveling back in time when vuvuzelas were funny, and for being annoying in high[er] definition.

Amount of construction going on next to our apartment: Lots
Our bedroom window is the one visible in the top-left corner of the picture, in the yellow-brick building. Though on the plus side, the white building on the right side there is pretty much finished, and apparently we're getting our little market back in a couple of months. It will have been worth all the damned noise.

...

OK, that's enough of that. Octo4er is, as we all know, the month that follows Setemboree, so see you then.

Daugust

2010-09-06T13:00:00.006-04:00

Things you absolutely must be aware of:

How much laundry did I do in August?
5 loads of laundry (that's possibly some sort of record!), separated by color. Three whites, two colors. I bleach the whites, and use more than the recommend amount of detergent on the colors. Why? Well, I suppose it's because I think I know more than the back of the detergent box. I realize now that I think about it that I'm probably wrong about this.

Any haircuts?
No. No haircuts.

Less interesting data:

Average Mood: 49%
This is ZEN NEGATIVE! But not significantly different than 50%, so it means nothing. As usual.

Miles Jogged: 25.8
Average Speed: 4.23 mph

Situps (yes, it's ON again): 296

Restaurants Visited: 6

Bars Visited: 6

Weight at end of month: 221
New stat. For public auditing purposes. Yes, I'm a bit chubsy.

Wines that have been pre-approved by me:

You're welcome! Here's the top 6 (of 15 total) list from June, July and August:

6. Cabernet Savignon - Red Diamond 2007
5. Chianti - Da Vinci 2008
4. Pinot Noir - Mission Point 2006
3. Chardonnay - Toasted Head 2008
2. Riesling - Fetzer 2009
1. Chambourcin - Linganore Winecellars (2010?)

The Fetzer Riesling was extra tasty, and the Mission Point is the best Pinot Noir I've had yet. Go buy them all, they're great. And cheap-ish. $10-$20 At Trader Joe's. Screened by yours truly, so you don't have to do any work. The Linganore Chambourcin was by far the best, but hard to get a hold of (Maryland stores only, it seems).

Things that happened:

August 1: About 2 AM at the least awesome of the many Jumbo Slices on 18th - This is the first thing I ate this month:
Rule of thumb for Adams Morgan Jumbo Slices: The quality of the giant pizza improves as you move north up 18th street. I now have enough data to claim this with confidence.

August 7: Pool party in Virginia. My chest hairs saw the sun for the first time in a long time. Later that night we watched a midnight showing of Ghostbusters at E Street Cinema in DC. There was a lot of yelling of movie lines by the audience of drunken 20-somethings. Good times.

August 8: The Safeway down the street closed. In October, the grocery store next to our apartment closed so that a condo building could be loudly constructed (starting around 7 AM every weekday morning), and now we lose the second-closest store. Conspiracy!

August 9: Finally finished The Wire. The last (fifth) season was pretty good, though not as good as the fourth. If you are looking for five seasons of a show to watch that will keep you entertained fairly consistently (though not as amazing as many people will tell you), I'd recommend it.

August 12: Giant fire across the street from where I work, in the building where my girlfriend works. An underground transformer exploded. Large plumes of black smoke mixed with occasional giant flames shooting up from the ground. Many, many firetrucks blocked the streets. Hundreds of people filled the sidewalks. Quite the sight. Our neighborhood lost power for the first time in 24 years (so they said, anyway), but it was back on within 4 hours. Good job power company.

August 21: Afternoon at the National Gallery of Art, drinks at POV Bar. POV, the roof bar of the W Hotel next to the Treasury and White House, has a great view of those, as well as the Washington Monument. And they've got tasty drinks. Tasty, expensive drinks. Also there's pretty much always a line to get in, and the clientele is mostly the kind of people who dress up and frequent that expensive bar you don't go to because you don't like the clientele. You know the one I mean. Needless to say I've only been this once, and don't plan on returning any time soon (but it was well worth the one visit). So we took a picture. If Obama were in town, I'd bet you'd see more snipers on that white-ish house in the background:

August 25: As it has been two years since I'd moved into Washington, DC (I'd spent 8 months before that in Alexandria, VA), I had to get my car re-inspected. It is a substantial pain in the ass to do this in DC. But it was done, and I passed. Good for two more years.

And later in the afternoon, the bag of Szechuan Peppercorns I'd ordered the week before arrived, which made this day just totally super. If you've never tried Szechuan Peppercorns, you've missed a chance for your shoes to be exploded by your socks being knocked off. Try them, you'll see.

August 28: Walked down to the Mall to witness thousands and thousands of people gathering to show off their American flag t-shirts and beards. And that we did see. Quite a sight. We walked all around the reflecting pool, squeezing our way through the crowd, listening to a surprising number of arguments between agitated Glenn Beck fans about whether the country is already burning in hell [figuratively?], or just on its way there. The distinction is important, apparently.

It was quite the thing. See:

August 29: Laura and I accidentally started a tradition last year by going to the same restaurant on 8/29/2009 that we did the previous year on 8/29/2008, when we first went for dinner at a Peruvian place called Inti to celebrate our 6 months of surviving each other in the Dating Realm.

So we went back this year for our third time on 8/29/2010 (that marks 2.5 years of us being victorious in the DateSphere, in case you were curious), and I had some excellent a lo pobre style (fried egg on top) Peruvian beef with fries, hot sauce, rice, black beans and a friend plantain. Sounds awesome, right? It was. It deserves a picture:

Though I suppose that's not really a very good picture... But you get the point.

---

Well that's it. And now you know.

September comes after August, I'll see you then.

Djuly 2010

2010-08-11T20:11:00.003-04:00

I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, I wonder what Davis did during the period July 1 - July 31, 2010. Think no more:

Davistatistics

Average Mood: 52%
In other words, I felt slightly better than 'neutral' on average this month. I am zen+.

Miles Jogged: 9.8
Average Speed: 4.17 mph
Excuses: We were on vacation for the first two weeks of the month (see below), and I was sick the last week. But the few miles we jogged were a full 4.2% faster than June's average speed! So suck it.

Bars Visited: 11
Though 4 of them were in one night...
Favorite this month: Hamilton's Bar & Grill. Feels like you're in a different city. The front porch is great, and the basement is awkward. And, also, beer pong is the bar's central focus, it seems. Feature Ranking = Location > Atmosphere > Drinks > Clientele.

Restaurants: 11
Favorite: Pokey's BBQ in Gillette, WY. They had a secret menu, which I conquered completely (The "Beast Feast"):

Two words: exciting and delicious.

Episodes of the Wire watched: 25
That's a full day's worth of television... From season 3-episode 3 to season 5, episode 2. And for the record, season 4 is by far the best. It had everything, and has made wasting all that time on relatively boring season 1 worth it.

Haircuts: 0
Still 3 total in 2010.

Loads of Laundry: 2
One less than usual. But we were on vacation...

Miles driven: 2,800
See below.

Vacation

Laura and I went on a 12-day vacation starting July 3rd and did some serious sightseeing. Details:

Day 1 - July 3: Flew from DC to Las Vegas

Rented a convertible in Vegas and drove from Vegas to Holbrook, AZ (340 miles). Saw the Hoover Dam, ate a giant, tasty burrito for lunch at a Mexican food restaurant in Kingman, Arizona called El Palacio, and after arriving in Holbrook, spent the evening with family and friends by a fire pit in my parents back yard. Good to be back home with the folks.

Best picture of the day: This is me trying to look cool in the convertible while driving slowly in a traffic jam approaching the Hoover Dam, being sunburned at an unprecedented rate:

There is a lot of sun in Vegas in July.

Day 2: Fireman's BBQ and Fourth of July Fireworks in Holbrook, AZ

Ate some BBQ beef in the fire department on long cafeteria tables for lunch, as is the Holbrook tradition. In the evening, family and friends took a few trucks and one Suzuki and drove a few miles out of town to this fireworks venue in the desert, being set up here by the Holbrook Volunteer Fire Dept:

At which we had front row seats. The best. The crowd behind us:
...And we experienced some intense, in-your-face fireworks action. It had been three years since I'd been back for these, and I'd forgotten how awesome the Holbrook, AZ fireworks experience was. It was wonderful to be back in the home town with the family again, especially for one of my favorite occasions.

Day 3: Drove from Holbrook, AZ to Moab, Utah (357 miles)

Driving through Monument Valley with the convertible top down around sunset was just neato. This was one of my favorite sights:

Which is the mirror image (literally) of something I knew I recognized...

We had some fry bread pizza at a place called Twin Rocks Cafe in Bluff, Utah for dinner, which was fairly tasty. And I ordered fry bread as an appetizer as well. Also good. If you're in the neighborhood, I recommend stopping.

Day 4: Drove from Moab, Utah to Gillette, Wyoming (696 miles)

Quite the driving day. Covered a lot of scenery: Rock cliffs in Moab and the desert of southeast Utah, through Colorado, past Vail and a raised highway through a forest valley just west of Denver. A barely-missed hail storm and (reported) tornado in southern Wyoming, to rolling green hills and countless trains filled with coal approaching Gillette, WY. It was quite the 11 hour drive. And here's 11 hours recapped in a few pictures:

Outside of Moab, Utah

Western Colorado

Valley highway in White River National Forest, west of Denver

North of Denver

Coal train, south of Gillette, WY

We ended the drive in Gillette, staying for the next couple days at an old friend's place - HardCoreG and her siggy Professor Stacks, who own a totally tops house in a surprisingly nice city. They took us for dinner to a restaurant with the world's largest menus (size, not quantity of food) and an excellent beer selection, followed by a night tour of a park full of out-of-commission mining equipment. No pictures or description could do this place justice, but let me summarize by saying I got to climb on a giant haul-truck and explore the inside of a train engine car (is that what you call that thing?) at 10 PM at night after boozing it up in eastern Wyoming. Quite the combination of place and experience...

Day 5: Coal Mine Tour & Mount Rushmore

The very gracious Prof. Stacks gave us a driving tour of the open-pit coal mine where he works, which was actually one of the more unexpectedly unique experiences of my life. There were some extremely large machines, some of which we climbed inside... The tour was enlightening in ways I could not have predicted. Here's me not being run over by a giant dirt-hauling truck:

And we drove to Mount Rushmore afterward. Laura and I were overly touristy, and purely adorable:

We finished the day eating at Pokey's BBQ (see above list of animals that were consumed by me) and drinking on the G&Stacks back porch, which was just tops.

And a note to G&Stacks: Thank you so much for the hospitality and the good times - Laura and I could not have asked for nicer people or better experiences, packed perfectly into such a seemingly short amount of time. If you come to DC, and we shall attempt to return the generosity.

Day 6: Drove from Gillette, WY to Gardiner, MT (413 miles)

We took the long route, suggested by the masters of the scenic trip - my parents - through Beartooth Pass, Montana. I've never had a more... scenic... drive. And the convertible top being down, while making it slightly cold (it was snowy at 11,000 feet...), made the whole thing truly remarkable. These pictures cannot do it justice:

And afterward, we drove through Yellowstone National Park on our way to my good, long-time friend Fred's new house in Gardiner, Montana. We saw quite quite a few buffalo on that first trek through the park:

...And we ended the evening up on a mountain, accessed via Jeep on a rough dirt road, by a bonfire, with Fred and his siggy Theresa and a few kind hippies, drinking Pabst Blue Ribbon under the stars. Good stuff.

Day 7: Rafting the Yellowstone river, Gardiner bar hopping and bottlerockets at night.

The old friend mentioned above - Fred - recently purchased a house in possibly the best location I have ever seen for a house, overlooking the Yellowstone river, a few hundred yards north of Yellowstone National Park's border. We had some serious relaxation time drinking his delicious home-brewed beer in the back yard, staring at the river:

And then went rafting in it. It was shockingly cold, and shockingly fun and memorable. No pictures, as I left the iPhone behind for obvious reasons...

We spent the evening at a couple Gardiner bars packed with an interesting mix of locals, tourists and part-time park employees; all people that seemed to have the same perspective of the place and attitude - carefree, as though they were all on a camping trip with friends. Or maybe I was just projecting, as that's how I felt pretty much the entire time. Let me just say that as far as I could tell, Gardiner is a very unique little town full of very kind, relaxed people.

After a good boozing, we came home and lit a few bottle rockets off over the dark river, the fireworks echoing over the rushing river noise... Quite the memory.

Day 8: Tour of Yellowstone National Park

There are a large number of amazing, unexpected things in Yellowstone park. We would have been 100% impressed just aimlessly exploring the park, but we had a secret weapon: Fred & his very wonderful girlfriend Theresa gave us a personalized, 9 hour tour of the entire park, showing us things and sharing knowledge that enhanced the entire experience 10 fold.

This was the Grand Prismatic Spring, which I'd say wins out for my favorite sight of the park (though it was a close call). This picture does not do justice to the whole thing. Check out this one I stole from the internet:

Colorful.

I'd post some more pictures, but you can get better ones on the internet. In fact, click here, I did your Googles for you. Yellowstone is totally rad.

Day 9: The Boiling River, Drove from Yellowstone to Coalville, UT, by Salt Lake - (384 Miles)

Left Fred & Theresa around noon, after spending the morning in . A note of thanks to them as well: You guys were just amazing! Laura and I had an excellent, excellent time - The restaurants, the jeep trip and mountain bonfire, the river rafting, the bars, the epic tour of the park, and getting to meet your truly wonderful (and numerous) friends in that town of yours was priceless. Can't thank you enough for the good times and the extraordinary generosity. It was great to see you again, Fred - and meet you finally, Theresa! - and I really hope you guys will come up our way sometime soon.

We saw a few more sights on the way out of the Yellowstone, then drove through the truly gorgeous Grand Teton National Park, stopping at Jenny Lake to take some pictures of Laura reenacting the time she went to Jenny Lake when she was a kid. Then drove through Jackson, WY, stopping for dinner at a strange place that seemed destined not to survive in a town like Jackson, called Ignight, and continued on, almost making it to Salt Lake City but instead staying the night at a Best Western in Coalville, UT. Some highlights:

Grand Tetons

A Jackson, WY antler arch

House on a hill in the middle of ...somewhere...

Day 10: Salt Lake City - Drove from Coalville, UT to Las Vegas (502 miles)

Drove into Salt Lake City in the morning, seeing the giant salty lake, the LDS Temple and the state capitol building. All three were about on par with what I expected. Actually, I did not expect the capitol building.

Drove from there to Las Vegas, stopping for lunch at a place at which I had not eaten in many, many years: Arby's. Good stuff.

We arrived in Vegas around 6 PM and dropped off the rental car (it was a good run - 2,692 miles driven between cities, plus at least another 100 or maybe 150 or so in Yellowstone and driving around in cities. So I'm rounding to about 2,800 miles total. Thank you, Enterprise, and your unlimited mileage and awesome, cheap weekly rentals of Sebring Convertibles. It was much appreciated.)

And took a cab and checked into the MGM Grand - cheap in the summertime, by the way, as are most things in Vegas - where we had some pizza for dinner and some drinks at the Centrifuge Bar while playing bar-top blackjack (Laura needed to practice before we did the real thing... Which, for the record, did not actually happen. Table minimums are expensive in Vegas!)

Saw the Beatles "Love" Cirque du Soleil - it was pretty amazing. Though I'd probably only recommend it to either a Cirque du Soleil fan or a Beatles fan (this describes 99% of the population, I would bet...). Someone who appreciated neither would call this show overpriced and fairly cheesy. But only one is needed to love it. For the record, I'm keen - but not overly keen - in both regards.

The only [non-blurry] picture I could take without being yelled at by theater staff was of the crowd afterward. Many of us were still singing... "...All you need is love..."

Then we cabbed it north and got ourselves some Fremont Street action, on '70s night:

Quite the thing, Fremont Street is.

After that, we went down to the south side of the strip again and I gave Laura a quick tour of the Excalibur and Luxor. Two places that seemed much larger - and newer, and cooler - when I was younger... But were still fairly interesting to look at.

Day 11: More Vegas.

Activity list:

- Ate breakfast/lunch at The Buffet at Aria, which turned out to be quite the eating experience - highly recommended to everyone who likes food.

- Checked out the Pawn Stars (if you have not seen the show, ignore this sentence) pawn shop, which is far, far smaller than the TV show makes it appear.

- Against Laura's will, we rode two rides on top of the Stratosphere, getting insanely stuck on one of them - the "Insanity: The Ride" ride, on which getting stranded for five minutes was an insane ride in itself. And by insane, I mean kind of a boring let down, which is just the least sane thing you would expect out of a ride that claims to be insane. Though my insane sun burn was getting even insaner by this point.

- Hung out in Circus Circus, where I came in *last place* against 10 kids on the throw-the-balls-in-the-holes-to-make-the-plastic-horses-move-in-a-horse-race game. I was shocked at myself.

- Dinner at Wolfgang Puck's at the MGM

- Toured the strip, ending the night with three water shows at the Bellagio.

View of the south strip from Stratosphere

Day 12: Back to DC.

We slept in, caught our noon flight and got home by 8 PM DC time. After 3,100 miles traveled in a car, 2,800 driven by yours truly, we returned to the low visibility, humid east coast. View from the plane window of northern Virginia:

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Well, there you go. Hope you like looking at other people's vacation pictures, because that's all I've got this month. Long enough for ya?

Djune 2010

2010-07-17T15:00:00.002-04:00

For those of you synchronizing your internal calendars to my monthly posts, I apologize. It is far past the first week of the month, when I usually post these things. Today is July 17th - So to compensate, let's all start July this week.

July shall now end August 17th. August now goes until mid-September, and so on. This will put Halloween just about where Thanksgiving is, at which point we can re-compress the lost days and celebrate both holidays together to make up for it.

This means, of course, that you can finally put a pumpkin on your Thanksgiving table and recreate that well-known image of the Pilgrims celebrating their "first Thanksgiving," without all that cognitive dissonance you usually have each year regarding the matter. Because, really, if there's a pumpkin at Thanksgiving, it's in the pie, not on the table.

There, two problems solved.

Oh, and of course now you can put on a costume for your family's Thanksgiving gathering, which is something we all want to do anyway.

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So I'm mixing it up slightly this month. Here's Dave-June 2010 in pictures:

Thursday, June 3rd, 9:30 PM
Tom Tom bar on 18th Street, DC
Due to receiving multiple free Heinekens from "The Heineken Girls," we ended happy hour with far too many drinks, and thrust them on [unnamed, for obvious reasons] with the demand that they all be drunk immediately. Overwhelmed, [unnamed bottle fellator] did the only thing a man can do when faced with 3+ drinks and only ~2 hands.

Sunday, June 6th, 5 PM
Black Ankle Vineyards, northwest of Baltimore, MD
Accessed via a bus full of 20- & 30-somethings, this was the front yard of the last stop of our Maryland wine tour. Bottle of 2007 Crumbling Rock on the table, farmhouse in the distance. metal table and chairs on which the four of us tried to be those people who sit and stare at a farmhouse in the countryside while sipping wine at a winery. We succeeded, for the most part.

Wednesday, June 9th, 6:45 AM
Rock Creek Park, DC
Laura and I woke at 6:28 AM and went on our first morning jog (we'd been night-jogging previously), which happened to coincide with the first few minutes of me being 28 years old. It seemed like a good old-person's way to start a day. And it turns out there are a surprising number of people riding bikes, jogging, doing push-ups in Rock Creek Park (!), and being generally awake at this time in the morning in the summer in DC. It's spooky.

Friday, June 11th, 9:00 PM
Men's Bathroom of Komi restaurant, 17th & P St, DC

For my birthday present this year, Laura arranged reservations and bought us both dinner at a restaurant I'd wanted to visit for many, many months: Komi, with their 15 course menu and no-taking-pictures-of-the-food rule. Thus the picture of the men's restroom. Taking a picture of the front of the restaurant doesn't do anything for anybody, and I couldn't bust out the camera during dinner, so...

Anyways, the place was incredible - by far the best food-related experience I've ever had. Presentation was perfect, and the servers' descriptions of the food and how exactly to eat it added some serious class (and raised the interest level, of course). Some of the food highlights: Octopus with onion yogurt, oven roasted dates with sea salt and mascarpone cheese, sea bass belly with ice cream, half of a suckling pig, and some unforgettably delicious sashimi that I ...forgot the names of. Not a vegetarian paradise, for sure - but everything was ultra delicious. The restaurant was dimly lit, and relatively small - about 14 tables, with as many servers. We had a wine pairing as well, including 7 glasses poured and described by the server with excellent timing, and ended the night with the most physically satisfied feeling I believe I've ever had. All in all, a substantially awesome birthday present.

Saturday, June 12th, 4:00 PM.
Dupont Circle, DC
Watched the World Cup U.S. vs. England game on a big screen TV set up in Dupont Circle, 100 feet north of the fountain. My friend standing next to me, The Welshman, rooting for England and booing the U.S, made the experience all the more... How to describe this... Might-Get-Beaten-Up-By-The-Mob-ish. That's it. Quite the thing.

Saturday, June 12th, 8:30 PM
Tequila at Sunset Birthday Party on the Roof

'Twas a wonderful birthday celebration, with wonderful friends. You know who you are. And the tequila was as good as the view, though the former lasted a bit longer than the latter...

Friday, June 18th, 8:30 PM
Kennedy Center, DC
Went to the symphony at the Kennedy Center. And before you ask, the answer to your first question is yes, they did perform Mahler. Here's the program:

HAYDN - Symphony No. 85 "La Reine"
SZYMANOWSKI - Violin Concerto No. 1
MAHLER - Symphony No. 1

The Szymanowski (who?) Violin Concerto was literally mind blowing. As in, I had to get a new one from the aisle attendant (who was, of course, fully prepared for that, and smiled as she mopped up the old mind bits from the orchestra section floor). I recommend downloading this Violin Concerto No. 1 and listening to it alone in the dark, thinking about the fact that your world is completely incomprehensible and chaotic, but that every so often you have moments of beautiful joy in which you truly believe the illusions of order you impose on the chaos, and boy do those moments feel good. You'll know why when you hear the music. And, funny enough, enjoying this symphony is just another of those moments...

Monday, June 28th, 9:00 PM
Front of Hard Times Cafe, King Street, Alexandria, VA

For the 39th time (Really, precisely 39 times) in the 2.5 years that I've lived in the DC area, some friends and I got dinner and drinks at Hard Times Cafe on King Street in Alexandria, VA. This is a picture of a horse on a truck with an American flag behind it, on the street in front of the restaurant. There is a sign on the horse with horse information which reads:
It turns out that information from a horse - at least, horse-related information - is very straightforward and to the point. In the future, I'll try to get more info off of horses. Thank you, horse, for the horse information.

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Necessary Statistics:

Haircuts: 1
Total # Haircuts in 2010: 3

Bars visited: 4
Restaurants: 6

Jogged: 45.50 Miles Average Speed: 4.01 mph
Improvement over May: 1.52%
We did some serious(er) jogging this month.

Movies Watched at Home: 1
Seven Pounds, with Will Smith. It was surprisingly touching...

Loads of Laundry: 3
Again, 3. There's a pattern here...

Episodes of The Wire: 27 (Seasons 1 & 2, part of 3)
Holy crap, we watched a lot of damn episodes of The Wire. First season started out slow, but got good by episode 10. Season 2 was fairly good throughout.

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That ought to do it.

I'll leave you with my favorite picture of the month: My friend AlsoDave dressed as a true American Cowboy shopping for high class cheese in Safeway:

The May 2010

2010-06-08T22:20:00.004-04:00

1. The Efficient Summary

2. The Stats

Best Day (Mood): Thursday, May 20th - Evening spent on the porch of Tom Tom bar on 18th Street with friends.

Worst Day (Mood): Tuesday, May 11th - Sick. Stayed home, causing the failure of the "Go Out Every Day in May" plan. Though most of the month was a success.

Meals (dinner) eaten in May involving Spaghetti: 11 (!)
Meals (dinner) eaten in May involving Peanut Butter: 5

Jogged: 27.0 Miles
Speed: 3.95 mph
Improvement over April: 9.7%

Loads of Laundry: 3

Haircuts: 1
Total Haircuts in 2010: 2

Bars Visited: 7

Restaurants: 6

Best Restaurant Experience in May:
Selam, Eritrean Restaurant on U St.

Best Overall Experience in May:
Kayaking on the Potomac

Movies Watched at Home: 2
- Sherlock Holmes
- Where the Wild Things Are
Sherlock Holmes was not terrible, but my high hopes for Wild Things were crushed fairly thoroughly.

3. The Notable Events

Sunday, May 2: Kayaking on the Potomac. First time I ever kayaked. I'd recommend this activity to anyone. It's surprisingly fun and easy to paddle yourself around in the water in a small vessel.

I'm on [in] a [small] boat [!]:

Thursday, May 6: Opera - The Marriage of Figaro. I hadn't seen an opera since I was a little kid, and I don't remember it much. This was a unique and extremely memorable experience. There was a moment during the show in which I was fully aware of the fact that I was watching something that I'll never forget. You know the feeling? The image stuck in my head, and I could feel it sticking. Whether or not I'll remember or care about remembering this image in the future, that feeling of sticking is pretty enjoyable.

Plus we had some excellent seats at the Kennedy Center:

Wednesday, May 26: Play - (A modern version of) Shakespeare's Hamlet. This was, by far, the best play I've ever seen. Though I haven't seen a lot of plays. I actually teared up a little during the Hamlet/Ophelia/Get-Thee-to-a-Nunnery scene. The lighting was perfect, the music was live, performed by one guy with a guitar and a keyboard, and the acting seemed excellent.

We saw it at the Folger Theater, which - by the way- is an amazing place. As Globe-ish as a theater could be. And the stage setup, in contrast, was ultra modern:

4. The Wine Rankings

Worst to Best:

11. Villa Cerrina Pinot Grigio
10. King Shag Sauvignon Blanc
9. Vinas Chilenas Chardonnay
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8. Trellis Chardonnay 2008
7. Yellowtail Cabernet Sauvignon
6. Santa Rita Chardonnay 120
5. Trellis Cabernet Sauvignon 2007
4. Friday's Creek Gewurztraminer
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3. Lindemans 2008 Shiraz
2. Camelot 2007 Pinot Noir
1. Panilonco 2009 Carmenere

Avoid numbers 11 to 9. 8 to 4 is the drinkable category. But the top three - Lindemans, Camelot and Panilonco were all great. They all move on to the next round. There's going to be quite a taste testing party at the end of the year...

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And that's just about it.

I'll leave you with a picture of a protest (of sorts) that we caught outside the White House Correspondents' Dinner, at the Washington Hilton on May 1st. This is the silliness that is DC:

dAvepril 2010

2010-05-04T22:00:00.000-04:00

Dave's month, in one ultra efficient graph:

It's got all the goods: The date, daily mood, average mood for the month, daily top events, whether I went out or stayed in for dinner, and what I ate.

And yes, I'm aware that all this seems fairly pointless. But I think charting & sharing one's daily activities for an entire month is kind of like like tweeting, or blogging in general, but perhaps more vulnerable and honest. It doesn't allow me to filter out the boring and somewhat embarrassing things (look at all those Chicken Bagel Sandwich dinners! Is that normal behavior?), and gives the reader a potentially valuable opportunity to see how another person actually lives his life. I would be curious to know the types and frequencies of things other people do throughout their month...

So the chart is the mostly-honest representation of my real life. And now for the filtering:

Highlights

Friday, April 2: Mingled with the thousands of tourists enjoying the Cherry Blossoms by the tidal basin. We sat by the water, and I accidentally killed a spider with a stick from five feet away.
And saw the Lincoln Memorial at sunset on the way home, which was tops:

Thursday, April 15 - Tuesday, April 20: Flew back to Arizona for my dad's 60th birthday.

Excellent family and home town quality time. Got my dad some cake, tequila and an iPad for his birthday, which he seemed to enjoy. He was a pro in just a few minutes:
And my brother and I stopped in Phoenix to visit the grandparents before I flew back to DC:

As for the rest of the month, I drank a lot of wine, met a few new people, watched some movies and had some excellent dinners. Details to follow.

Movies

Watched an above average number of movies this month.

At home:

The Blind Side - Overrated, especially Sandra Bullock's acting. But I do believe I got somewhat teary-eyed at some point during the film...

Crazy Heart - As good as I expected, and worth watching. The Dude did well.

Youth in Revolt - Uniquely funny. Recommended to those who appreciate Michael Cera.

Bourne Identity, Supremacy & Ultimatum - All three were pretty great, though I'm not sure if they lived up to my extremely high expectations. If I had lower expectations, I would be gushing now, I'm sure. Excellent action. And for the series, the movie rankings are 3 > 2 > 1. Just like the Star Wars prequels.

Out:

We watched The Lives of Others at the Goethe-Institut in Chinatown, which was followed up by a one hour discussion between the crowd and a professor of film studies from NYU. The movie was damn good. And I'd say this was probably the most moving movie-watching experience I've had in years.

Wine

A new - and necessary - category for this blog. And I apologize in advance for increasing the probability that you believe that I am including this category as a desperate grab for higher status. Look at it as a form of advice.

Here's a ranking of the month's wines, from worst to best:

8. Tuscan Moon Sangiovese 2008
7. Laurent Reverdy Sancerre
6. Barefoot Chardonnay
5. Vinas Chilenas Cabernet Savignon 2009
4. Tres Pinos Tierra Blanca White Wine 2008
3. Jacques Bourguignon Chablis 2008
2. Il Valore Sangiovese 2008
1. Aquila d'Oro Chianti 2008

The winner for the month, by a somewhat small margin, was the Chianti:

Nothing truly special, but drinkable and tasty, especially compared to the other not-very-notable options on the list - and only $8 at Trader Joe's. And the other valuable advice I will give: Avoid the Tuscan Moon Sangiovese with all your strength (also at Trader Joe's).

Perhaps by the end of the year, I'll taste-test the winners from each month in The Great 2010 Wine-Off. That ought to be a joy to read about.

Restaurants

Taste of India - Nothing better than an evening spent sitting by the street, eating spicy Lamb Vindalu and drinking two giant bottles of Taj Mahal.

Himalayan Heritage - Atmosphere was engaging, food was delicious. Lamb Ko appetizer was good.

Rajaji - Indian food, right next door to Taste of India in Woodley Park. Quality is better, but for a higher price. And, importantly, it's right on the street and they have Taj Mahals.

Buca di Beppo - Italian food in ultra large plates + Peroni is another one of those wonderful combinations that make my life so enjoyable. One without the other is just not good enough, but the combo is great.

Romo's Mexican Restaurant, Holbrook, AZ - Check this out:

That's a Red Enchilada Style Beef Burrito, #14 on the menu. One of my all time favorite meals. And I will die early because of that fact - but it's worth it.

Wayside, Holbrook, AZ - I used to go here as a kid, and I ordered a grilled cheese for many years. Then I graduated to the Patty Melt, which is what I had this time. The nostalgia was very tasty, not to mention the onions and red chili fries.

El Rincon - In Adams Morgan. Nothing special, but the Lomo Saltado was fairly tasty. Though I'd place it second of the three places within a five block radius I've had Lomo Saltado. First place, by the way, is at Inti on 18th Street.

Stats

Miles Jogged/Walked: 23.8 miles
Average speed: 3.6 mph

Bars Visited: 4
This stat has been trending down for months. Perhaps next month I'll share my Bar Graph...

Haircuts: 0
Again.

Strangers met: About 15
Strangers whose names I remember: 2
...John, Brian.
Perhaps I need to start writing these things down...

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And that ought to do it. I'll leave you with a picture of the good stuff:

Buffett Could Have Made Off as Well

2010-04-09T17:12:00.002-04:00

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Someone has to be Warren Buffett.

Statistically, if it weren’t Warren Buffett, then somebody else would have a reasonably similar record of making multiple, successive, good stock picking decisions. And, in fact, this person does exist – he or she is just not as well known.

But what’s more interesting is that Warren Buffett could have just as easily been Bernie Madoff:

“Here is how the story goes. At the age of 26, Buffett was raising money and pitching to clients. But he was brazen and wanted to play by his rules. Some of the terms he had were: he would not disclose any of the holdings, he would only give a yearly summary of results, and he would only allow one day of December 31 for withdrawing or adding capital. And some people agreed to this!”

- From the book “Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist” which I did not read. I found the excerpt here.

“He would not disclose any of the holdings”?! Is it possible – I mean, in the realm of possibility – that Buffett started out his speculating career with a Ponzi scheme [or let’s call it a well-intentioned plan to raise capital for stock-buying with lots of hope and no foresight] paired with a ton of confidence, and then simply got lucky in his first few stock picks?

Yes, quite possible.

And, really, there are likely a great number of people that start successful careers this way - Good intentions, a ton of confidence and no foresight to avoid excessive risk.

The many that take risk and fail become Normies, and a lucky few become Oracles. The Madoffs of the world could just as well be Oracles that blossom too near a major economic recession…

March of Davis 2010

2010-04-02T17:00:00.001-04:00

Let's start with the squishy stuff:

Mood

Average mood for the month: 58%. Is that good? I don't know. It's not as good as January (62%), but better than February (56%). These numbers are, as they say, pretty silly. ...So far...

Peak: Very excellent day in Charlottesville, VA (see below)

Valley[s]: Mondays. 3/22 & 3/29. There's really no reason for Mondays.

Food

Let's see if I can break the record for utterly boring data. Here's what I had for dinner every night this month:

3/01: (Home) Teriyaki Tofu w/ Red Peppers
3/02: (Home) Spicy Teriyaki Tofu w/ Rice
3/03: (Home) Peanut Butter & Jelly Sandwiches
3/04: (Home) Chimichangas
3/05: (Out) Shrimp & Grits + Cornmeal Encrusted Salmon
3/06: (Out) Sherry Clam Soup + Fettucine Truffle Ragout
3/07: (Out) Scallion Bubble Pancakes + Szechuan Crispy Beef
3/08: (Out) Chili Cheeseburger & Fries
3/09: (Home) Peanut Butter & Jelly Sandwich + Strawberries
3/10: (Home) Pan Seared Chili Tofu w/ Rice
3/11: (Home) Peanut Butter & Jelly Sandwiches
3/12: (Home) Chimichangas
3/13: (Home) Chicken w/ Red Peppers
3/14: (Home) Soba Noodles w/ Peanut Sauce
3/15: (Home) Tofu w/ Eggplant & Green Peppers
3/16: (Out) Dim Sum w/ Spicy Basil Dumplings, Crispy Prawn & other less notables
3/17: (Home) Chicken Bagel Sandwich
3/18: (Out) Pizza & Street Hot Dogs
3/19: (Out) Baked Fish Intestines, Sweet Potato Puffs, Sushi
3/20: (Out) New York Street Pizza
3/21: (Out) Restaurant Pizza
3/22: (Home) Spaghetti w/ Homemade Tomato Sauce
3/23: (Home) Chimichangas
3/24: (Home) Chicken Bagel Sandwich
3/25: (Home) Chicken Bagel Sandwich again...
3/26: (Home) Buttery Spaghetti
3/27: (Home) Buttery [+Parmesan Cheesy] Spaghetti
3/28: (Home) Banana, Pistachios, Peanut Butter, Other Misc. Foodstuffs
3/29: (Home) Chimichangas
3/30: (Out) Passover Dinner: Gefilte Fish, Matzo Ball Soup, Brisket & more...
3/31: (Home) Peanut Butter & Jelly Sandwiches

Chimichangas, PB&Js, and food involving tofu were all tied for first place in the most-eaten-in-March competition (4 dinners each). And now you know.

The important question here is, of course, how valuable is an entire year's worth of data on what I eat for dinner? I suppose I'll have to find out the hard way...

Travel

Laura and I went to Charlottesville & Monticello the first weekend of March to celebrate 735 days of dating each other. I'd say it definitely beat out the previous year's trip to Philadelphia, where we celebrated days 364-366. Some of the highlights:

Stayed at a nice bed & breakfast with fireplaces all over the place:

Visited Thomas Jefferson's shack on a hill:

Visited my first wineries, and did a few tastings. The best was Blenheim Vineyards, owned by Dave Matthews. Yes, apparently he can play the same chords over and over again on the guitar, and make wine. That's talent. Seriously though, it was pretty tops.

One of the barrels was having a party in the basement:

Had some excellent dinners in Charlottesville, and on the way home we ate at this classy looking place and had some renowned szechuan food :
Yes, it was next to H&R Block. But the chef is some sort of enigma-ninja. See the link above... I'd never had real szechuan-spicy food before, and let me tell you: It is truly unbelievable. In short, it makes your mouth go numb and everything (including water) tastes like lemons for 5 minutes or so after just one bite. Not sure if this is all szechuan, but if so - I'd recommend it to any experience-seeking individual.

Afterward we drove home on Skyline Drive, a pretty nifty, way-the-hell-up-there and out of the way road in Virginia. Good views the whole way:

Next: I spent March 18 - 21 in New York with my old friend from Tucson. He'd never been to the large apple, and it was quite a bit of fun exploring the hell out of Manhattan. Some highlights:

1. Had dinner at the Ninja Restaurant, Ninja New York. No picture, it was too dark & ninja-ey there. I'd say it was probably the best dining experience I've ever had - the hosts are ninja-ish, you get spooked by ninjas the whole time, and the food is as ninja as ninja food can get. It's in a ninja castle, and one leaves with a desire to be a ninja. Ninja.

2. Saw Grant's Tomb (did not see Grant), ate breakfast at Tom's Restaurant, AKA Monk's Restaurant in the TV Show Seinfeld, walked through FAO Schwartz, and caught a Broadway show - Chicago. Here's a little picture of Grant's Tomb, for those who want to know what it looks like from the front:

And here's a picture of Spiderman:

3. Got to the very top of the Empire State Building, 102nd floor. In case anyone is curious, it costs $20 to go to the 86th floor, and an extra $15 to get to the 102nd. It is not necessary to visit the 102nd floor. The 86th is better in nearly every way. There's your fact of the day. This is from the 86th:

We visited quite a few Irish pubs throughout the weekend (there are only Irish pubs in Midtown Manhattan, by the way), as well as a German beer garden somewhere a few blocks west of Times Square that was pretty worthwhile. And, of course, we ate many slices of pizza and street hot dogs. All in all, a very excellent trip.

Stats

Movies watched at home: 4

1. The Informant
2. American Psycho
3. Fantastic Mr. Fox
4. The Hurt Locker

Ranking, best to worst: Informant, Fantastic Mr. Fox, American Psycho, Hurt Locker. Hurt Locker was exceedingly overrated (along with Slumdog Millionaire, last year's Best Picture winner). But the Informant and Mr. Fox were both really excellent. Highly recommended.

Miles jogged: 15.9
Actually it's more of a jog-walking-hybrid, but seems like good exercise.

Situps: 500
I'm doing jog-walking now, so bite me.

Restaurants: 9

Bars: 9
You don't need me to list them. Half of them were Irish pubs.

---

And that ought to do it. I'll leave you with a picture of me as a wino, sitting on the front porch outside of the tasting room at Jefferson Vineyards in Charlottesville:

This article was written in 1949

2010-03-11T20:50:00.000-05:00

In this Popular Science article (6 pages to the right, How to tell USSR about US). Written about the cold war 61 years ago.

Are wars commonly caused by a lack of "samples of the product"...?

Snowruary 2010

2010-03-01T18:30:00.011-05:00

February was at least two days shorter than many other months this year. And it was covered in snow. Quite a sham.

Here's what happened:

Snomg, Snowpocalypse II!

I didn't really think a #snowpocalypse can have a sequel (#snowpocalypse2), but it seemed appropriate. DC and the northeast were hit by a massive, major, angry snow storm on February 5, and SnowRulesDC went into effect. In other words,

All the trees fell down:

The streets became sidewalks:

Giant snow battles erupted:

Stores ran out of food:

And the city was smothered by snow:

But there were no zombies or post-apocalypse mutants or anything, so we pulled through just fine. Until another blizzard arrived just a few days later... But by that point, we were used to it.

Stats

There was so much snow (and man, was it cold) that I spent pretty much the entire month inside the ol' apartment developing my staying at home skills. This led to:

More sit-ups: 1,400.
FYI: My all time record number of sit-ups in a month is 1,960 - Exactly a year ago in February, 2009. Coincidence?

More Movies at home: 3
- Walk the Line. Johnny Cash was more of a jerk than I expected.

- Inglorious Basterds. Very, very excellent.

- Independence Day. Yes, Independence Day - Laura had never seen it before. We crossed it off the Movies to See List. Glad that's done with.

Fewer dinners out: 4
- Banana Leaves. Asian combo restaurant - Thai, Japanese, Vietnamese. Not too shabby, but nothing spectacular. Had the Grilled Honey Peanut Tofu, not as good as I expected. Though their Crab Rangoon appetizer was impressive.

- Alero. DC Mexican food standby in the neighborhood. No food that I've tried or even read about in this city compares with Arizona/New Mexican style Mexican food. Salsa is not salsa here, and it's certainly not hot. But it's differently tasty - In fact, the Seafood Chimichanga at Alero is wonderful.

- Buca di Beppo. Yes, teens and tweens, the very restaurant where the cast of Real World ate during the season's first episode. Work lunch with my upward chain of command. Had some Penne San Remo (? => Penne with Artichoke hearts + sun dried tomatoes and white wine sauce. Tasty.) and some chicken cannelloni (not as tasty).

- Zengo. Unique and delicious as hell. Asian-Mexican fusion. We ordered a bunch of small plates. In order of deliciousness:

1. Kobe Beef Sushi
2. Thai Chicken Empanadas
3. Edamame w/ XO Sauce
4. Shrimp+Shitake Mushroom Potstickers
5. Pork Belly Steamed Buns
6. Achiote Pork Arepas
Desert:
Mexican Chocolate Tart
Lemon Cake w/ Ginger Ice Cream

# of Bars visited was actually right at my average: 6
Tryst, Bedrock Billiards, Mad Hatter, Brickskeller, Chef Geoff's and Stoney's. Though all but one were for special occasions: A birthday, an engagement celebration, visit from Laura's friend from New York, and two send-off gatherings for a friend who's leaving for Afghanistan.

The latter sendoff at Stoney's was an incredible experience. The entire top half of the bar (two large rooms) was filled with at least 100 people who all knew the same guy (Jeff Le). An impressive person to say the least. His leaving definitely represents the end of an era, I'd say. He was even there for my first tour of the DC Monuments back in November of 2008, and the conversation we had was enough to convince me that there are some awesome people in this city, and that I should move here.

Also a congratulations is in order to two good friends, Stephen & Meghan, who got engaged this month, on Valentine's Day. The only [semi] decent picture I got of the informal engagement celebration was of our friends at Bedrock Billiards crowding around them (they're the two figures facing away from the camera):
If you were there, this picture would make more sense. It was great to be there for this event.

Shows on the Town: 2
- Avatar 3D. Finally saw it on Feb. 12th. And the theater was still packed. What a silly, silly movie - but surprisingly enjoyable to watch. Plus it was in 3D and of course we kept our glasses:

- The Ballet (my second ever): Sleeping Beauty. If it were a movie, it would have been boring. But it wasn't, it was the ballet - surreal and dancy. Our seats were at the top of the theater at Kennedy Center:
I'm not a real ballet fan, but the experience is pretty unique. Recommended to all.

Haircuts: 1
Average number of haircuts per month in 2010: 0.5000
Average number of haircuts per week in 2010: 0.1208
Haircuts/day: 0.0169
Total number of haircuts so far this decade: 1
Number of hairs: Declining
Hair Population Outlook: Not so good

Age at end of month: 27.75 years

Weight gain for the month: Negative 3 Pounds.
- What the ?? I was shocked - shocked! - to see this in my scale. I was even on a strict sitting-around-and-eating regimen. But I suppose it was all those extra sit-ups, and a bit of jumping over piles of snow.

Overall Mood

Average: 56%

This month was not the most exciting I've ever had, and not seeing the sun for many days in a row might have had an effect... But at least I averaged out above 50%!

Peak: Overall a good day. And trying to walk through the snowbstacle course that was the city quickly to get to Avatar 3D on time was surprisingly fun.

Valley: I just wasn't in that good a mood. It might have been the massive blizzard that followed Snowpocalypse by just a few days, and we were yet again locked inside by snow. I suppose getting snowed in loses its novelty after a week or so...

Anniversary

February 28th marks two years of dating this girl:

Thank you, my dear sugarnuts - it's been a completely wonderful two years. Despite your giant red glasses.

Fin

The month was substantially less event-filled than usual, but all in all not bad. Unique, to say the least. I've never seen that much snow...

That just about does it. Here's a special bonus picture of me going to work with bags on my feet:
Forecasts say March will be A) Less snowy and B) 10% longer - or more! - than February.

Month of Daveness - January 2010

2010-02-04T22:00:00.004-05:00

I've found that I really enjoy summarizing time periods. Here's January:

Mood

That's right - This month I knocked it up a notch and added some extra data points to the Spreadsheet Journal. The mood graph above shows my subjective measurement of my mood throughout the month.

The peak: Friday, January 15. Went to a birthday celebration for my friend Cledwyn at a place in northeast DC called Palace of Wonders. There was a burlesque/variety show, and I met quite a few decent people that night. Good times. I've learned that pretty much everybody I've met out on the town really enjoys talking to strangers for some reason - And I'm consistently surprised how interesting other people turn out to be. But maybe that's just selection bias (i.e. I just remember the good ones...).

The low point: Saturday, January 23. Had to work on both Saturday and Sunday. Halfway between my weekend of work, on Saturday evening, I spent far too long trying to get a graphics card driver working on Ubuntu. And I failed miserably at this task. Also I was just in a bad mood.

And my average mood for the month: 62% Positive. That's fairly good, one would think. Though part of this tracking experiment is to see if I subconsciously converge on the mean (50%). At the end of the year, I'll either see some interesting patterns or I'll prove my theory correct. Exciting either way, I think... right?

Food

January was kind of a slower month than usual for me. It was cold and Laura was in South Africa for the first two weeks. I was especially lazy. I went to four restaurants over the month (one of them twice), listed below in order of awesomeness:

- Mandalay Restaurant and Cafe. Authentic Burmese. Very good - Laura's wide rice noodles with romaine hearts, tofu and peanut sauce was tops.

- Mai Thai. Best Thai food I've had in my 27 years of [not often] eating Thai food. Massuman Curry was excellent. Went here twice this month.

- Charlie Chiang's. Chinese. They do vegetarian very well. I realized at this restaurant that tofu is in fact not a boring and tasteless thing - you just have to cook it right. In fact, I have cooked four different Tofu dishes at home (all of which were surprisingly tasty) in just the past few weeks. See below for the month's winner...

- Nando's Peri-Peri. South African masters of chicken. Extremely good chicken. For some reason the atmosphere of this place makes me uncomfortable (fast food-ish, quasi-self serve, hard to navigate). But the food's delicious.

As for staying in:

I mentioned above that I finally realized the value of tofu. I was previously fairly confident that tofu was mostly crumbly, wet rubber. But it's all in how you cook it. Tofu is yet another ingredient in a growing list of things I'm getting into cooking, and cooking somewhat well (I think). This month I'll nominate the following dish for Dave's Cooking Hall of Fame:

Spicy Fried Honey Tofu

- Firm Tofu, cut into 1/2" square blocks
Add however much you want of:
- Hot Sauce
- Honey
- Sesame Chili Oil
- Olive Oil
- Cayenne Pepper and Salt

Pop it all in a pan and fry the hell out of it, adding more honey while it cooks. Trust me, it's tasty. And spicy.

12:01 AM, 01/01/2010

I spent the first few hours of the new decade with these people:

New Year's Eve was quite the night. I would explain why we were all making such wild gestures, but it would take away all the funny.

My resolutions for the new year? To dislocate my elbow and lose my phone within four weeks. I know -- Ambitious, right? I dream big.

Things that Happened that, if Given a Choice, I Would Have Chosen for Them Not to Happen.

Monday, January 11th - Dislocated my elbow:

Heard a "click" during my non-routine-living-room-rug-exercise-routine somewhere between push-up number 30 and 40. The next day, my elbow started to swell, and by the end of the week it was mostly unbendable. This is the fourth time I've dislocated Little Elby. Some day soon I'll post the full history...

Wednesday, January 27th - Lost my phone:

After watching State of the Union at a friend's place in Virginia, I left my phone in the cab back to DC, and didn't remember the cab company... Normally I wouldn't mind too much, but this phone was a Samsung Omnia with a touchscreen, 5 MP camera, 8 GB hard drive and a ton of personal data. But alas, I was somewhat excited to switch over to THE bandwagon of my generation, and by Jan. 31st I had an iPhone. Which is 300%-500% more amazing.

Got Stuff Done

I finally took the time this month to finish editing the video I recorded of my trip from Tucson to DC.

For those who don't know: When I moved here two years ago, I bought a video camera, mounted it to my dashboard with Velcro and box-packaging foam and videotaped pretty much the entire 2,300 mile trip. 99% of which is the view out the front windshield of my '96 Honda Accord. I know, it sounds boring, but when you speed it up to 8 times normal speed and add some music, it's... Well, less boring. Here's a sample:

This was somewhere in Southwest New Mexico on day one of the trip. Maybe someday I'll upload the full 18 minute video...

And as for the month's more straightforward data:

Statistics

Nights out at Bars: 6

Movie Theater Movies: 1 (Up in the Air ... Avatar was sold out.) Up in the Air was not bad. The ending was much better than I expected.

Movies Watched at Home: 5
- Star Trek
- Gran Turino
- Atonement
- March of the Penguins
- District 9

Your movie reviews for for the month:
District 9 and Gran Turino were excellent. March of the Penguins was surprisingly watchable. Star Trek I'd seen before, and Atonement caught me off guard - I hated it while watching it, and now I think I like the idea behind the movie a lot. Though I probably won't watch it again...

Trips to Target: 0

Haircuts: 0

Trips to Safeway: 3

Exercise: 500 sit-ups, 120 push-ups (before dislocating the ol' Elbow), and a lot less walking than usual. It was cold out there! And that's making me fat... Speaking of cold -

Average Temperature in DC: 35 F! - Graph of the month's temperatures courtesy of wolfram-alpha:

Other Notables

Technology: Learned a tiny bit of Perl and a little bit more of PHP this month, and explored the magical (and annoying - WTF Ubuntu Radeon 9250 device drivers?!) world of Ubuntu and Linux Mint. If I were on a desert island with a computer without an internet connection and one operating system besides Windows, it would be Ubuntu. Because all the good stuff comes pre-packaged. Though if I had internet access on this island, it would be Linux Mint - because A) you can download all the Ubuntu apps, and B) it would remind me more of the Windows that I'd be missing so dearly...

Governmental: 1. Filed my taxes at the end of the month. DC is sending me a check, but I owed $9 to the Feddies. Nine dollars! What are the odds? 2. Received my first ever Jury Duty summons. I'm due next Tuesday. That should be interesting...

---

And that was my month. February ought to be more interesting...

Conditioning One's Air

2010-01-20T21:38:00.000-05:00

From a third grade economics quiz posted on Freakonomics:

The kid put 'N' on air conditioning, and was corrected. ....But shelter is a need? Clothes? Aren't these just versions of air conditioning?

The Year in Dave Data

2009-12-31T00:01:00.005-05:00

2009. It was a good year. A year full of stuff.

Fortunately I happen to know exactly what all that stuff was, courtesy of my Spreadsheet Journal, an Excel spreadsheet in which I keep track of pretty much everything I do - everywhere I go, who I'm with, what I'm thinking and for how long I'm doing what I'm doing. Normally I use this information to recall what I had for dinner throughout the previous month, so I can convince my girlfriend that enough time has passed that we can go get hamburgers and beer again without feeling guilty. But keeping an ultra-detailed journal has some other benefits as well.

For one, I know the frequency of things I do that I would otherwise only be able to guess at:

I saw 9 movies in theaters this year. I have a feeling that's below average. And apparently I didn't see a single movie all summer. That seems especially abnormal. But maybe I just don't go for the summer blockbusters these days. In fact, my taste in movies is probably quite clear - here's what I paid to see this year:

1. Benjamin Button
2. Frost Nixon
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. The Class
5. Star Trek (Almost a summer blockbuster...?)
6. A Serious Man
7. The Invention of Lying
8. Men Who Stare at Goats
9. Invictus

Most Cheesy, But Wonderful: Invictus
Most Excellent: Star Trek
Most Overrated: Slumdog Millionaire
Most Worse: The Invention of Lying

When I combine the Spreadsheet Journal with my credit card statements, I can figure out patterns that otherwise might be hard to keyword-search in the journal:

That's the number of times I added money to my DC Metro (subway) card. Perhaps it wasn't just movies that were ignored over the summer - It appears I didn't ride the Metro much, either...

And here's the number of times I bought stuff over the internet:

I know, I know. I like to shop online. Do you see the inverse correlation with this graph and the previous two over the summer months? Clearly I was busy staying home over the summer. I blame the DC humidity... And more importantly, the fact that I moved in with my girlfriend on August 1st (It was my job to buy all the good stuff [electronics] for the new apartment - all online, of course. Notice the buildup toward the end of the summer...)

Almost as exciting is the number and frequency of haircuts I got this year:

Other than the summer lag (Again!), there's a pretty regular pattern here. Clearly my hair has not stopped growing. Or, possibly, I'm just getting the same number of haircuts to make me forget about the receding hairline...

Speaking of which, I took this picture at the beginning of November:

There's a mutiny going on up there. And I captured the evidence... On the plus side, Laura and I were in the Bahamas when I snapped this photo (waiting at the airport), so I was especially willing to take the picture and face the [potentially scary] truth about what the top of my head looks like.

Bahamas (Nassau) was a weekend trip for Laura's birthday at the beginning of November. It's hot as hell there, even then. Other places visited this year:

- Philadelphia (Twice!)
- New York (...plus Queens!)
- Rome, Florence & Venice, Italy
- Baltimore (Shouldn't really be considered a destination, though, as it's a 40 minute drive...)
- Nassau, Bahamas

I discovered the glory of overseas travel this year. Italy was my first trip outside of North America. Lots of fun.

We drank a lot of wine -

And ate a lot of gelato:

That's my "all out of gelato" angry face.

Hopefully 2010 will be even more travelicious.

As for the more common activities of the past year:

That is a lot of eating and drinking - I was a bit surprised when I made these graphs. Though really, restaurants and bars are what DC is all about. Or so I believe... And at least there were more restaurant visits than bar visits, right? Ah, bite me.

But even more surprising (for those of us who used to call Hard Times Restaurant home):

Only three visits to Hard Times in Alexandria, VA this year. Inside story: The friends & I used to go to this restaurant/bar pretty much every Monday - it was the official Man Date Monday hangout, due to the 1/2 price chiliburgers and $2.50 beers that may or may not have been Yuengling (though quite delicious whatever they were). It was the venue for a total of 27 separate drinking-too-much-on-a-weekday-and-talking-about-man-stuff occasions over the course of 18 months. Good times.

Though there are somewhat more enticing options these days, since the recent arrival of Beertopia (AKA Churchkey DC) Oh, so wonderful...

And now for the strangest pattern of all - Shopping trips to Target:

Almost exactly every two months... What are the odds? Do all the household items run out at the same time? And if so, why couldn't I just buy twice as much of them, and cut Target_Visits/year in half?

The answer is, sadly enough, that the shopping cart gets full, so we feel a bit guilty and leave the store instead of getting a second cart. ...And, also, perhaps the once-every-two-months pattern was obvious for other reasons...

At this point, one might be thinking that I could keep track of lots more (interesting) data. Well one would be right in thinking that. Though a lot of it is not designed to be shared - or rather I am specifically forbidden from sharing it with you, by a certain person I happen to be sharing a bed with... Forbidden, even after I promised to use really, really clever euphemisms! "Dance Practice" is the first that comes to mind...)

But rest assured, I've got graphs, regression lines and comparative data charts for everything even remotely interesting I've done over the past two years. And I can tell you some of it:

- Number of sit-ups done in 2009: 10,800

Yes, really - though my New Year's resolution last year was to average 100 per day. That's about 25,000 short. But on the plus side, that number is accurate +/- 20 or so.

- Push-ups: 460

They're harder!

- Number of Celebrities I've been within 30 feet of: 4

I'm calling Freakonomics authors Levitt & Dubner celebrities, and the third was Michael Showalter, though I don't know who that is, actually, and I didn't see him. I was told he was behind me somewhere... The fourth was that lady on CNN who was reporting on the mall right before inauguration. How 'bout those for big time celebs, eh??

- Number of times I was on the Real World: 1

Yes, once. For about 30 seconds. The scene may or may not have made the cut - we'll find out soon enough, I suppose, as the first episode of the Real World's season filmed in DC premiered tonight (The Real World house was only two blocks from my apartment!)

- Number of Snowpocalypses I experienced: 1

I finally got to jump in the Dupont fountain.

Another achievement that day: Looked adorable in a snow cap.

- Times I shopped at at Rite-Aid or CVS: 21

- Times I bought food at Safeway: 25

- And at the wonderful store that used to be right next door to my apartment: 45

The store next door, Embassy Market - the most convenient and useful store I've ever known - closed at the end of October so the owner could build a large apartment building instead. Less good.

- Longest non-stop walk: 9.1 miles

Out to Virginia, on this route (approximately).

- Number of presidential inaugurations that I missed (I had to work!): 1

But at least I got to see the build up... Besides, it was freezing that day. But apparently it was quite an event - Here's what the otherwise very green & grassy national mall looked like afterward:

...Yes, that's some kind of dust storm...

And finally:

Number of blogs I update [semi-occasionally] that became famous in Germany: 1

Pokingfood.com, of course. Watch from about 2:25 in this video (after it loads) for my favorite piece of evidence. It's Essen Stecken!
The Poking phenomenon then spread to Japan for some time before slowing down. And of course, all credit for the [fleeting] overseas fame belongs to Internet Hero Ross Nover. Good man.

---

Well, I think that just about covers it. 2009 was a good year. In fact, this whole decade was pretty great, all things considered. I went from 17 to 27 years old - My prime, for god's sake! From high school in Holbrook, Arizona, to college in Tucson, to whatever it is that I'm doing now in Washington, DC.

Also this decade, I got to experience all 100 of these most iconic videos of the internet's first real [decent] decade. That alone makes it a great decade. And it's def something our grandkids are going to totes be uber jealous of. That, and our rad vernac!

Some other stuff happened this decade, too, but it's hardly worth mentioning. You were there too.

So if I make it, by the end of this next decade I'll be 37 - and I'll have 12 full years of data to organize, graph and post to my blog! Or tweet about, or whatever the hell it is the cool kids will be doing by then. That will be something to look forward to, my friends.

Until then, enjoy the teens. Oh, and my prediction for the next decade: By the middle of 2011, most people will be saying "twenty eleven" rather than "two thousand eleven." That's right - You read it here first.

2009: Most Incorrect Headline

2009-12-27T16:23:00.001-05:00

From Yahoo Finance today:

Could blue chips'? Yes could. But no forget, caution mean people take money out market no spend as much, not people buy "safe" stock. "Caution Returns" imply less money spent on blue chips compared to previous state, not more.

Clear? Be.

A-Leaping is Included

2009-12-23T12:12:00.010-05:00

Here is this year’s 12 Days of Christmas Price Index.

Buying everything in the quantities specified in the song would cost about $87,402.00, about 1% higher than last year.

Though I see a problem in the calculation: “The Partridge in a Pear Tree is down 27.3 percent to $159.99. The partridge came in 50 percent below last year at $10.00 and the pear tree is $149.99, off 25 percent.”

A partridge is only $10.00? An untrained partridge, perhaps.

I contend that one must not simply purchase a partridge and a pear tree, but rather a partridge that stays in the tree. And of course it will be substantially more expensive to buy a partridge that is pre-trained to not leave the tree.

...Unless - as stated recently by a wise girl with whom I frequently engage conversationally and happen to be dating - you just tie the bird to the tree. This only adds around $5 for the price of bird shackles to the total, bringing it up to the $87,407.00 range, or thereabouts. Let’s assume the bird can survive on an all-pear diet. And also that bird shackles cost $5.

Beware, Early-ish Adopters

2009-12-20T13:45:00.008-05:00

…The Kindle is our generation’s Apple IIe.

Our children are going to be shocked that we A) thought the Kindle was a useful device, considering its limited internet capability, B) thought it was worth its current $260 price tag [plus book downloading costs!], and C) that its display is BLACK AND WHITE! It won’t be long until we think of this device like we now think of late ‘90s cell phones.

However, if you’re looking for a digital book reader, have a lot of disposable income and are looking for something large to hold in your hand to overtly signal your status in society, I’m sure it’s a lovely device.

And come to think of it, a Kindle would probably make an excellent gift for these same reasons. Good gifts generally A) are at least a bit useful, B) cost slightly more than the gift-receiver would be willing to pay for the item, and C) appeal to one’s desire for higher status… Think jewelry, iPods, clothing, cell phones, etc.

Standards

2009-12-14T18:43:00.003-05:00

This quote seems to sum up my position pretty well:

“Fair trade pays to support relatively wealthy Mexican coffee farmers at the expense of poorer nations.”

Oh, the number of times I’ve made this argument! Not about Mexico, specifically, but the basic point. In fact, I was arguing it at a bar with a communist the evening I met my girlfriend - Exactly two years ago today, December 14^th 2007. ‘Twas a good night… She of course was initially attracted to my infallible logic. …I highly recommend hanging out and debating with communists to make your arguments seem more impressive to women.

Anyways, back to the point: Concerned citizens should avoid fair trade coffee - and other goods traded “fairly” - as much as possible. For the same reason you should not be compelled to give more money to talented homeless people (i.e. panhandlers that play an instrument, sing, perform in some way, etc.) than you would give to untalented ones.

Back to the Future Wisdom

2009-12-09T12:30:00.003-05:00

Scientists have once again shown Back to the Future: Part III to have the correct model of time travel:

New Model of the Universe Says Past Crystallizes out of the Future

"The standard spacetime diagrams used in relativity accord no special status to the past, the present or the future. That's because they assume that everything evolves from time-reversible local physics.… It is possible represent such a universe using a kind of spacetime diagram in which space and time merge into a single entity. 'The universe just is: a fixed spacetime block,' say Ellis and Rothman. In this view, no instant has any special status: 'All past and future times are equally present, and the present 'now' is just one of an infinite number.'"

That's the Back to the Future: Part I and Back to the Future: Part II model. But of course, as everyone's grandmother knows, that's all bunk. Here's the real truth:

"…Today, Ellis and Rothman introduce a significant new type of block universe. They say the character of the block changes dramatically when quantum mechanics is thrown into the mix. All of a sudden, the past and the future take on entirely different characteristics. The future is dominated by the weird laws of quantum mechanics in which objects can exist in two places at the same time and particles can be so deeply linked that they share the same existence. By contrast, the past is dominated by the unflinching certainty of classical mechanics."

If I'm reading this right - which I'm not - it means that the future is wide open. And that it "Crystallizes" into the past via the mechanism we so fondly call the "present."

Or in other words, as spoken from a flying steam train from the past: "The future is whatever you make it! So make it a good one."

Net Positive Clown Benefit

2009-12-07T14:06:00.001-05:00

Here.

“…Clowns do not have any effect once the anesthesia mask is introduced.”

Indeed. This sentence is easily one of the most versatile metaphors I’ve come across in ages…

How I Plan to Celebrate the End of the Decade

2009-11-15T15:43:00.002-05:00

...I will be watching this Wikipedia article on the 2000s for an update on January 1st, 2010. If it takes more than a couple seconds after midnight to see the phrase "It is the current decade" removed from the top of the page, I will be disappointed.

On a related note, are these really the 10 best internet memes this decade? Does this not count as a meme?

Good News

2009-04-28T20:55:00.002-04:00

...Well, 'good' as in high quality:

"The Los Angeles County coroner's office is investigating two recent deaths that officials say could be related to the recent global swine flu outbreak. However, no tests have come back positive for the swine flu, and medical examiners have not officially determined what caused the deaths."

And by high quality, I actually mean no quality.

I, like the rest of the public, also sometimes like to make statements that have no evidence whatsoever.

These people died of the flu? Well, then, it must be that ol' swine pandemic goin' around!

...Or, perhaps, it was just our forgotten friend the seasonal flu: 13,000 killed in U.S. by 'regular flu' since January 2009.

"No fewer than 800 flu-related deaths were reported in any week between January 1 and April 18, the most recent week for which figures were available."

Wow - 800 deaths per week. Now that's something. Call me when the swine flu gets close to these numbers - I'll gladly remind anyone how much energy they've spent thinking about one and not the other.

But don't get me wrong. It's not about the time you spend worrying about various external threats. It's the emphasis you put on other people's perceptions of those threats. Worry about whatever you want, for as long as you want, but at least do yourself the justice of trying to measure the difference between reality and common perception of reality.

I'm often surprised at the size of variance between the two...

Time to Buy a House Yet?

2009-04-03T10:00:00.007-04:00

No.

Or most likely not. Probably not...

Here's a graph comparing Phoenix's real estate price index for the past 16 years with the rate of inflation:

(Data from Case-Shiller/S&P)

Two things to note:

1) The value on the left axis is an index of real estate prices in the Phoenix area, with January of the year 2000 set at 100. In other words, If you paid $100,000 for an average house in January 2000, it likely peaked around $227,000 before being worth, on average, about $117,000 as of January 2009.

2) Real estate price changes don't always match inflation changes, but over longer periods of time they do. For example, if inflation is 3% per year over 30 years, you could bet with some certainty that the price of your house probably rose, on average, about 3% per year over those 30 years. That's why it's at least somewhat important to compare real estate prices to the rate of inflation.

So since real estate prices have historically hovered around the rate of inflation, one could make a reasonably educated guess that Phoenix prices just have a little further to go until they're where they "should be" (matched up with the shaded, dark blue section at the bottom of the graph).

Here's the same graph for DC:

If you look to the current year at the far right of the graph, you'll see that DC is still technically (and I mean technically) more overpriced relative to inflation than Phoenix.

The fun part is figuring out the large number of reasons this is the case. But I'll leave that for another time...

And this one is a composite of 10 U.S. cities (Specifically an average of Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington DC):

Keep in mind the baseline inflation rate (the shaded blue portion on each graph) is basically an average home price from 1993 & 1994 multiplied by the rate of inflation - Or what you'd expect a house you bought in 1993 to be worth each year if it appreciated at the inflation rate.

According to my little inflation-baseline model here, real estate prices in these 10 major markets are, on average, overpriced by about 42%. That's pretty substantial. (...And for those of you who noticed the incorrect graph that was in this place first... Forget about that one!!)

So... Time to buy a house yet?

Probably not.

Although it is far cheaper to buy a house now than it was in any of the past 4 years, we've still got a long way to go before real estate is back at that inflation-adjusted line. There's no indication that prices are done falling, and, on top of that, bubble prices coming back down to earth often overshoot their "fair" prices.

So even if you think waiting a few more months will get you a good deal on a house (prices will be even lower for rest of this year than they are now), there's a very good chance waiting even longer (let's just guess the beginning of 2011) will let you buy close to the bottom.

---

But who knows? Even though I still believe pretty strongly that it's never a good idea to buy a house, maybe I'm missing something in this post... Like, perhaps, hundreds of billions of dollars of government home purchase subsidies...

U.S. vs. THEM

2009-03-06T18:30:00.001-05:00

OneEyedMan at Belligerati has inspired an update with his recent post. The question: How have U.S. stock markets been performing relative to world markets?

The answer, as of March 6th, 2009:

...And in fancy-pants format:

...So... Not that bad. Relatively.

Only the FTSE tops the DOW (though all these percentage drops are far too close to make meaningful comparisons). And, of course, that's not a reason to flock to British stocks:

Sure, the FTSE has fallen less, but it never really touched the sky like the Dow, ya know?

---

Now, as for the post that inspired this: I'm interested to find out if knowing that U.S. stocks have performed only marginally better than the rest of the world changes the original opinion...

Krug Disease in Remission

2008-12-18T12:00:00.002-05:00

This was a nice little tidbit from our recent Econ Nobel Prize winner:

"There’s no obvious reason why consumer demand can’t be sustained by the spending of the upper class — $200 dinners and luxury hotels create jobs, the same way that fast food dinners and Motel 6s do."

I thought, perhaps Krugman was being excessively sarcastic, but the first comment on his post settled it:

"Yes the economy they created is the one we are bailing out now - you must have gotten some bad eggnog in Stockholm, Paul."

Ah! I think, perhaps, someone at the Nobel conference slipped him the good eggnog! Here's evidence at the scene of the crime.

Geographical Moral Hazard

2008-12-10T12:00:00.000-05:00

I was recently asked, while on a road trip to the Grand Canyon, what I thought about the Supai villagers' helicopter rescue from the bottom of the Grand Canyon. If you don't know the story: 170 members of The Havasupai Tribe that lives in a[n apparently vulnerable] section of the Grand Canyon had to be rescued by helicopter this past August during a flood.

And in case you're curious, here's a timeline of my thoughts about people living in somewhat dangerous, remote and/or not-easily-accessible-to-emergency-crews places:

August 2008:
"Why would people live in the bottom of the Grand Canyon? Nuts."

August 2008, 1 minute later:
"We're using helicopters to rescue people who chose to live at the bottom of the Grand Canyon? Sure, we can't just let them die, but shouldn't there be some sort of 'no-rescue' credible threat to prevent people from living down there without their own escape plan, so other people don't have to pay to rescue them when an obvious and inevitable danger appears?"

September 2008:
"Hmmm... Yes. Yes, indeed, I am generally opposed to people living in dangerous places without their own escape routes/plans."

November 29, 2008, during a road trip to the Grand Canyon:
"...Why not just live on the top of an active volcano, then? I mean, if the government has committed to rescue you no matter what you do, then what incentive is there to develop your own escape plans (AKA Helicopters/Lava Sleds/etc.)? This is geographical moral hazard, and I'm anti-that."

Today - December 11, 2008:
"Wait a second. Is it possibly a legitimate government function to mitigate the risks of moving to potentially dangerous locations? Could there be some benefit to this?

If there is some benefit from geographical diversity (there is), and if trailblazin', pioneering humans that settle a new, but dangerous, location don't often have the means by themselves to arrange a complete rescue for each of their trailblazin' members (but only an incomplete rescue), then I could assume that there is some need for an organized body that lowers the risks (just enough) of exploring and settling new locations.

Now there are two relevant questions:

1. Does the cost of an inevitable complete rescue outweigh the benefits (short, long and very long term benefits included) of Living Dangerously?

2. If there is a legitimate need for a dangerous location risk mitigation service, who should carry it out? Can it be a private organization (insurance), or is this one o' them 'government-only' things?

And here are the correct answers:

1. No. The long term benefits of exploration outweigh any potential rescue costs.

2. Private insurance could do the job, but humans plan on too short a timeline and have too little information about the value of potential benefits of new geography to price them correctly. Usually the benefits to human exploration are gained by those who come after the trailblazers and harness resources/new knowledge/experience/etc, and these people wouldn't want to pay the insurance fees of their forefathers...

In other words, government should be making rescue commitments to people who settle hazardous locations.

Good job.

I'm In Yur Economiez, Preventin' Yur Deflashunz

2008-12-06T10:00:00.001-05:00

LolBernanke.

If you're wondering how well the the Federal Reserve and the rest of us are going to fare against this recession we're all playing with, read this speech by Ben Bernanke from 2002. It's fantastic. Definitely worth a read if you've been worrying needlessly about things that are out of your hands...

My favorite line:

"We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."

Notice the word "always."

So stop worrying about the economy, people. You're in good hands. If the crap really starts hitting the fan, I'm almost positive that Ben Bernanke will actually get a helicopter.

Star Wars Episode 2conomics

2008-11-26T15:00:00.000-05:00

See how I added "...conomics" to that? That takes skills.

---

So we learn in Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones that The Republic and all its Jedi buddies decide to utilize a previously-unknown-to-them army of clones of Boba Fett's dad in order to fight off the massive robot army of the separatists, who apparently are under the control of Darth Sidious, the alter ego of the guy that controls the Rupublic Senate and its clone army, chancellor Palpatine.

Do I have this right?

So on the well-written side we have a guy, Chancellor Palpatine AKA Darth Sidious AKA Darth Vader's Master AKA The Emperor, who is secretly orchestrating a war between two different factions that he controls, trying to destroy all the Jedi Knights.

But on the dark side of the script we have a lack of understanding of economics.

Of course.

---

Human beings that fight wars on Earth are valuable. Each life lost during a war (or any time) represents a substantial and costly loss. This is why wars are often relatively short - they are fought between two or more controllers of expensive, nearly irreplaceable resources that try to destroy each other's resources to get the other side to stop fighting.

But not in Star Wars.

In Star Wars, apparently, one side purchases a bunch of robots, and the other side (the Republic) purchases a bunch of clones of Jango Fett. In a universe where the gains from trade are literally astronomical, one would not think that the monetary resources necessary to purchase robots or clones is much of a strain in the slightest.

In fact, why purchase clones anyway? Supposedly they're better warriors than stupid droids, but they take more than 10 years to fully mature!

As I always say, fight robots with robots. Why does the Galactic Republic not simply purchase more droids to fight off the huge droid army of the separatists? I guarantee they have the money. In the real universe, they would do exactly this.

But there's a problem: Imagine you are a Galactic Senator. Even in relatively peaceful times, you know that any of your potential enemies might go out one morning and buy a whole droid army simply for the hell of it, and try to take over your Galactic Senate. Simply due to the threat of this possibly occurring, you have to have a huge droid army available (or even clones, if you feel like it) at your disposal any time of the day or night.

But how big must your robotic or clone army be?

If your enemy has a million droids, you must purchase and have on hand a million droids + an Imperial Walker. But your enemies will then just get 2 million droids, an imperial walker and a fleet of any of these:

The page I got this from is full of useful information...
...

So if you follow this logic to its conclusion, any real war fought in the Star Wars Universe must be shockingly large. So large that there would be a battle consisting solely of converting the most resources into military 'units' until almost all of one side's resources are used up. And I mean thousands of planets, trillions of humanoids, and a nearly infinite amount of raw goods with which one could produce an infinite number of quirky robots with annoying voices and terrible senses of humor.

But, of course, we can assume that the threat of an "infinite resource war" such as this would prevent any one side from taking aggressive action in the first place, can't we?

Again, not in Star Wars.

I believe the answer depends on the number of planets actively participating in the universe's federation of planets. This is why Star Trek is believable, and Star Wars is your toddler's bullshit fantasy. In the universe, no matter where you are or however much of a long, long time ago it happens to be there is no Force, and physics do not change so much that there is noise and fire in space and Jedi "Knights" - who can stop laser fire with swords! - can't seem to hop into military cargo aircraft properly on one end of the universe, and on our side of the universe space is boring and vacuumy, and even my grandma knows that when you're trying to escape a surrounding droid army's laser fire you get the fluck into that fluckin' cargo aircraft as fast as fluckin' possible.

Watch that scene in Attack of the Clones - you'll see what I'm talking about.

Oh, but my point was this: With too many planets within such short [time] distance from each other, the barriers to interstellar trade are minimal, and "infinite resource wars" are either entirely too likely, or constantly threatened, and will inevitably occur. But if your universe happens to be only sparsely populated with planets and intelligent life, and droids and clones are apparently difficult to come by (There's only one Data! ...Or two...?), wars are determined by dedication and diplomacy. Or lack thereof, I suppose.

So now I think I have the right to propose the following Rule of Future Space Wars:

If there are enough planets, resources and humanoids readily available to produce a large number of droids with crappy senses of humor (which is evidence of their very low cost [because if you're adding wit into your droid's programming, the droid market must be a very competitive and established market]), then you will have one universal government.

In fact, this happens to be the case in Star Wars. Hefty interplanetary trade leads to one or two super-powerful governments, The Galactic Republic followed by The Empire.

But in Star Trek, there are multiple, competing, powerful governments. (The Federation, the Romulans, Borg, etc.) This is what you get with high barriers to trade. Borg!

So listen up, people: If you don't want your great, great, great grandchildren to have to fight for freedom against giant moon-sized, laser-shootin', planet-explodin' Death Starish space battle stations, you'd better hope the laws of physics and limitations of travel below 185,000 miles per second hold up.

If the rules of physics don't hold, then pass this warning on to your children, to pass along to their own children, and so on:

The minute your droids start making wise cracks, start preparing for a big ass war.

...

Follow that logic?

Your #1 Source for Turkey Stats

2008-11-23T13:00:00.001-05:00

Check it:

Turkey is, apparently, least expensive during the month in which demand for it in the U.S. is the highest.

There are at least two interesting explanations for this, which I won't explain.

You Buy Now! Stocks Love You Long Time!

2008-11-20T08:00:00.000-05:00

How many of you 4ECon readin' sons of bitches remember this post I did a long time ago in August of 2007, about my prediction of where the stock market was headed?

To refresh your memories, here's the graph I used:

That black, drawn-in brace on the right side of the graph was my prediction of where the S&P 500 would end up sometime over the subsequent two years.

And here's my favorite line from that post, referring to my prediction of when "serious panic" will hit the stock market:

"When? My guess: ANY TIME between now and October 2009. Mark my effin' words. When stocks do drop, it'll be down to the long term trend line. When that happens, make sure you're buying stocks - unless, of course, there's a much better reason not to (such as the rise of the machines, Terminator style...)"

...So, um... Who's awesome now, huh? That's right.

Here's today's graph of the S&P:

Look at that decline over just the past 15 months! Shizz!

So how well did I do? I was right about the time (but really, how hard was that to predict in August of 2007, especially with a two year window?) But I was overly optimistic about the extent of the decline.

And now here's today's graph of the S&P beautifully overlaid on the 15-month-ago graph, in case you're curious how close my prediction was:

For sheit's sake! It's like I drew that black brace from the old graph just recently, isn't it? I knew it, I'm some sort of stock predicting sorcerer! Perhaps I shall purchase a magical staff...

But wait... We kinda overshot the hell out of that trend line on the way down, didn't we?

Damn, that's quite an overshot.

All right, so I may have been overly optimistic about the lower boundaries of stock droptitude, but that means one good thing for you followers of Foreeconomical Canon:

The line from my August '07 quote, "When that happens, make sure you're buying stocks," is even more important to pay attention to now.

No, I'm not saying that you definitely will not get completely screwed in the short term (only on paper, mind you) if you buy stocks now. Who knows, there might be, as I said, a Rise of The Machines type of craptastic event that occurs in the near future. Machines grown from credit crises that force you to pay back your home loans with lasers. I'm not saying this won't happen. Mark those words. I didn't say it won't. There's my new prediction. Heeeed!

What I am saying, though, is that you will definitely not get completely screwed in the long term if you buy pretty much any stock [index fund] now. I usually avoid saying this line, because I grew so sick of people saying it over the past 3 years, but it's a reasonably good time to buy.

Relative to the past couple years, that is.

As of this posting, the Dow's at 7,997.28. Sure, you might get a better chance to buy stocks at better prices over the next year or so, but who can see that coming? I mean, besides a sorcerer with a magic staff... ...Which I will be the minute I find one on eBay...

Now if you actually are considering taking my advice, follow these rules:

1) Don't put all your money in at once. Split your investment into as many reasonably-size chunks as possible and dollar-cost average over the next year or two.

2) Don't buy a bunch of useless crap. Actually, here - here's the best advice of all: Buy a whole ton of the S&P Index tracker, (stock ticker: SPY - $81.50/share right now) in chunks over the next year or so and hold it for 10-15 years. You'll do fine.

But which of the one reader of my blog is actually going to follow this advice anyway? My real purpose here is just to say this crap on the internet so I can write another blog post in two years talking about how right I was way back in November of 2008.

...

But again, I apologize. This is just my Krug Disease acting up.

Yes, it's a real disease! Just Google it.

The Cost of My Economic Righteousness Part 2: The Return of the Blog Post Titled "The Cost of My Economic Righteousness"

2008-11-15T17:00:00.003-05:00

So, as you're all fully aware after reading that last post, I am very much against the idea of a bailout for U.S. auto makers.

I'm so against it, in fact, that it would actually make me feel bad if it happened. I would literally lose [some] faith in [some] politicians that I've recently put [some] faith in. Not only that, but it would to a certain degree make me feel less confident in my government. Though you shouldn't get me wrong: I don't have that much confidence now. Also, I'm very flippant with my confidence-giving. And forgetful. I often misplace it...

Anyways, I really do not want to see a substantial bailout for the Big Three - GM, Ford and Chrysler, nor even the multiple suppliers that depend on them. They don't need it, nor do they deserve it, and it would be a terrible waste of money and resources to subsidize any of these companies' continuing survival.

But it still might happen. In fact, I put the odds on a multi-billion dollar "aid package" to any or all of the big U.S. auto makers at better than 50/50 over the course of the next year. Probably more like 75% likely, I would guess. But I'm not positive, of course.

So on one hand I'm facing a reality in which a bailout for the Big Three does not happen. Let's just assume that there's a 25% chance for this, maybe more, maybe less. I'm not sure. That's probably a decent guess. But if the bailout does not go through - if we allow GM, Ford and/or Chrysler to be privately bought out, bankrupted or simply left to barely eek by, the world will be a better place for me now, and in the future. Not having a bailout could potentially mean any or all of these:

- Our politicians in charge understand and prefer good economics over bad politics. Big win!

- We just saved billions of dollars on our tax bill by switching to not-bailing-out-crappy-corporations.

- GM, Ford and Chrysler might all become better, more efficient, more competitive and sustainable companies in the long run.

- Lobbyists for the auto industry are losing their grip...

- I might see fewer taxpayer subsidized enormous GM SUVs on the road in front of me when I'm driving my little ol' '96 Honda. Maybe...

All of these are big wins for Davis McDavioid.

On the other hand, let's assume there's a 75% chance that more than a few billion dollars of taxpayer money will be given to the Big Three as a bailout.

All the big wins turn to big losses for Davis McDavioid. Also, Hard Company Registration - AKA Hardcoreg - is on record saying that she will become a "Cranky bear" should taxpayer money be spent on "bailing out businesses who suck at business..."

Becoming a cranky bear is not a big win. For anybody. Nobody wants a cranky bear.

So how do I solve this problem? Clearly, my "Economic Righteousness" - my inability to stop being arrogant and to not care about the economic decisions other people make - is causing some hardship.

Here's how I hedge my concern:

As of the writing of this post, GM stock is selling for $3.01 That's per share. Compared to October of last year, when it hit a high of $42, it is down around 93%. That's a phat load of losses, freres.

So let's assume I buy 50 shares of GM stock at $3.01 and hold them for as long as I can. This will cost $150.50. If there is no bailout and GM goes bankrupt, I lose all $150.50. This is the cost of my economic righteousness. If there is a bailout, however, we can reasonably assume that GM will at some point over the next year (or few years) shoot straight up to at least its "cautious but safe" levels of, say, around where it was a couple months ago - In September, it was at $13.00. That's a good safe bet for a post-bailout price, I would think.

But there's no guarantee, so let's change our percentages a little to reflect this:

If there is a bailout, the odds of the stock necessarily going at least that high are not certain, so let's change that 75% chance of a bailout into, say, a 60% chance of a bailout-and-return-to-reasonable-stock-levels, and a 40% chance of losing everything (even with one or two bailouts, GM still could go bankrupt over the next few years.)

So now we've assumed a 60% chance that GM stock will rise to $13.00, and a 40% chance that it'll fall to zero... A 60% chance of making $499.50 profit (50 shares * $13.00 = $650 - $150.50 = $499.50) and a 40% chance of losing $150.50.

The expected payoff from this bet is:

(.60 * $499.50) + (.40 * -$150.50) = $299.70 - $60.20 = $239.50

So that's $239.50 in profit if my estimate of the odds is correct. That's a pretty good deal just by itself, iddnit? In fact, the expected break even point is at P(Bailout) = .232. In other words, if there is greater than a 23.2% chance that Congress bails out GM, or simply that the company returns to profitability on its own, I'll make money. This seems to suggest that either GM's current stock price is too low due to panic, or pricing in a far-too-long horizon for return to profitability (in which case the returns stockholders are ultimately expecting would be eaten up by inflation over the course of many years...)

But that's just the expected value. When reality arrives, all probabilities go to 0 or 1, so let's sum up where I'll be when Congress makes that fateful decision:

When an announcement comes that GM is filing for bankruptcy, and Congress stays silent, I will be out 150 bucks and feel very proud that the politician(s) I voted for are kickin' ass and making the world a better place (by simply ignoring lobbyists, no less!)

- OR -

When the announcement comes that GM is receiving billions of dollars of taxpayer money in order to produce more crappy vehicles, I will be annoyed. I'll have decreased optimism for our politicians, the near-term future of our economy, and - most importantly - I'll have to fend off cranky bears.

But I will have $499.50 to spend on booze, ice cream and video games. Good distractions, all.

The Cost of My Economic Righteousness

2008-11-13T20:15:00.003-05:00

I am very against the idea of the government giving money to car companies, AKA "Bailing Out" any of the three major automakers in the U.S. - GM, Ford and Chrysler.

This is not the real point of this post, and hopefully most 4ECon readin' types already agree with me, but I'll explain why before I go on to brighter subjects:

(...In numbered list form, of course...)

1. Taxpayers should not pay for companies to sell uncompetitive, unnecessary goods.

There, that's it.

What? You want really long explanation? Shucks:

Imagine the U.S. government decided to give a typewriter company a couple billion dollars to make sure they didn't go out of business. Almost everybody is buying computers instead of typewriters, so the company and its many employees would surely be doomed if the government didn't bail them out with a lot of cash. Of course, the government can't let all those jobs disappear, so they give a bunch of taxpayer money to the employers, Typewriter Co. So now Typewriter Co. and its employees continue to sell typewriters for around the same cost as before, but now the taxpayers (computer owners, largely) are basically purchasing typewriters for other people who want them; Other people, that is, who don't want typewriters enough to pay a higher, company-sustaining price for them. But hey, at least all the Typewriter Co. employees have jobs, right?

The only difference between this example and the Big 3 Bailout is that car companies A) employ many, many people and B) have a remote possibility of making a product everyone might someday want.

First off, B) is a not legitimate reason to save a company or even an industry. People seem to think that auto companies create some unique good that our lives would be worse without. This isn't true. Even if it were, American auto companies aren't the ones creating the unique goods... Put simply, if GM, Ford or Chrysler are employing resources (people, that is) that might one day create something that people really want, but it requires the framework of a massive corporation to bring this product to market, these resources will be put to better use by companies with more experience in selling innovation to the public, e.g. Honda, Toyota, et al.

But what should we do about A) all the jobs that would be lost if there were no bailout? Well, that's a problem, yes, but it doesn't mean that we should give money to these employees - via their employers - to make stuff (e.g. Chevy Tahoes) that nobody really wants to buy, does it? Following this logic, why not just pay other companies to hire these employees to do [somewhat] different jobs altogether? We could just as easily ditch the bailout, then institute a tax credit for other companies hiring former auto workers, and a little unemployment insurance boost in the meantime. This would be government-subsidized job training for employees from The Old Economy. This is not the worst idea in the world...

2. Chapter 11 Bankruptcy exists.

This is why you shouldn't give a few billion dollars to GM in the form of a direct bailout. Without a bailout, what happens? That's right: Another kind of bailout called Chapter 11. In bankruptcy reorganization, a company must take a good, honest look at whether it is a necessary entity or not.

If the company is unnecessary, useless, stupid, a waste of time, never learned right from wrong, from the gutter, livin' on a prayer, taking up space, etcetera, then its assets will be sold off and that'll be that. No more company, no more employed GM auto workers. In this case, the government should (and would) offer hefty unemployment benefits (at the very, very least) to former employees.

However, if the company is somewhat useful - if it'll make more money for its creditors by staying in business than by selling off its assets, then it'll just reorganize. After spending a few protected years (or months...?) trying to figure out how best to emerge from bankruptcy into the glorious world of profitability, it will emerge, or it will give up. Either way. Does it matter? I mean, whatever the answer is - give up or become profitable - a company will be better off than it was in the money-losin' years leading up to its bankruptcy, right?

So by all means, allow GM, Ford and Chrysler to file for Chapter 11. Sure, they might have fewer employees in the short term, but in the long term they will in all likelihood employ far more people at far more competitive (read: lower) rates. In other words, more jobs, more sustainable company. Also, fewer billions of dollars spent on bailouts this year, and in two or three years when GM & Friends need a bigger bailout. Bonus. Good stuff.

So there you go. Two reasons to be against an auto company bailout that, when combined, form an awesome powerhouse of "There is Absolutely Nothing But Negatives in an Auto Company Bailout."

...If you think there is some benefit to bailing out the automakers that doesn't specifically involve a higher opportunity cost, then you're missing something, or possibly simply weighting your variables like a noob.

...

But this was not the point of this post. The real point was supposed to be about trying to figure out the cost of making me feel better about an auto company bailout, should it actually happen. That, dear 4ECon browsing types, I will cover in my next post.

For now, I've got to go jam some foodstuffs into my mouthhole.

Welcome Back Davis

2008-11-10T21:00:00.003-05:00

Thanks, post title! It's good to be back.

Now let's get right into the rambling - I've got some points to make:

1) I love writing things in list form. Numbered lists are my favorite.

2) Today is November 10th. A year ago today was my first visit to Washington. I remember it like it was a year ago. Today. I've lived around/in DC for 11 months (December 3rd was the day I left Tucson) and I still haven't done 90% of the stuff a tourist would do in this city. The only plus side to this - in my head - is that when old friends/family come to visit me (which has happened... twice...?) I will be able to go see touristy stuff and be legitimately interested. This is, by the way, an open invitation to any one I know who reads this blog - you're welcome to come to DC and sleep on the hardwood floor in my studio apartment, between the table and the window, next to the fridge, any time you like.

3) Here's my ranking of Star Wars movies, from best to worst: I. III, II. II, III. V, IV. VI, V. I, VI. IV.

4) As I had been predicting with extreme arrogance for literally months leading up to the election, Obama won the crap out of that election. I'm glad he won - he's an excellent speaker, an incredibly talented politician, and I'm convinced he's a "Secret Economist." That's right. "Secret" because economist-hating socialists think he is on their side, and "Economist" because socialist-hating economists know that he's not.

Evidence? Obama's positions on freezing interest rates, pigovian taxes, immigration, competition in health care, gas-tax holidays, progressive taxes (including an implied understanding of government budget constraints), and his comments on the gains from freer trade (before it became apparently necessary for him to start bashing NAFTA, which I still hold against him... But, then again, it seems he was just being a clever politician.)

Most of these examples come from his early debates with Clinton, so I will grant you that he might have since contradicted himself and/or changed his "opinion" on some or all of the specific examples (which I'm way to lazy to link to) of the topics I listed above. If so, it just means I have to put more emphasis on the word 'Secret' in Secret Economist.

Obama was supported by The Economist magazine. This line was my favorite, though I've taken it out of its somewhat wary context:

"The Economist does not have a vote, but if it did, it would cast it for Mr Obama. We do so wholeheartedly..."

And there's this other line in the article, attributed to Obama's advisors:

"...he is a political chameleon who would move to the centre in Washington."

That sums it up pretty well, I think. How about Chameleonomist? ...Terrible. But you get the point.

Finally, pay attention to Obama's economic advisors. Austin Goolsbee is a pretty clever fellow. I'm convinced you can learn more about a president [elect], by looking at who he trusts for advice than by listening to the things they say during campaigns...

So, long story short, I'm proud Barack Obama won. He'll be a far-better-than-average president. Also, I voted for him, as required by the rules of Gamepaign 2008. Of course, I cheated a little bit and completely ignored Gamepaign 2008 for the past... Year... or so... But hey - rules are rules.

5) Speaking of that: I also voted for Eleanor Holmes Norton, and some Libertarian whose name I don't remember. And that's it. It took me exactly 9 minutes to get out of my chair in my office, walk to the church/polling station, vote, and return to my chair at work. And now my vote is one of the 210,000 for Obama in DC (compared to McCain's 14,800). 14,800 to 210,000?!?! Your nation's capital, dear Foreecon readin' types, is surrounded by quite a shocking number of Democrats. Just FYI.

6) PokingFood.com is kickin' ass and taking names, and has been for weeks. If, after browsing the wonderfully hi-res photos of fingers in food, you become inspired to capture your own FoodPoke, simply email it to pokingfood@gmail.com. Stupid caption optional.

Join the revolution, dickheads!

7) I'll be back soon to update Ye Olde 4ECon with some more useless crap.

Glory

2008-09-16T22:35:00.001-04:00

Dear Friends,

My dream has finally become a reality. After years of preparation and planning and fund raising, it is done. The Single Greatest Thing I've Ever Done is brought forth upon the world today. Click, and contemplate the new meaning of awe-inspiring.

- Dave Foree

A Note to You

2008-07-28T23:15:00.002-04:00

Dear You,

I will return someday. Someday soon, perhaps.

Yoursest,

4ECon

4Play

2008-05-08T01:29:00.002-04:00

OK, so it's been since April 18th. What's today? The seventh of May?! Hory clap. I figured it's about time I tell the two people I know that this blog is not dying. It's just adapting while I get settled.

So here's a personal update for all ye 4E knowin' types:

I'm enjoying the hell out of living in DC. I've got a job that is turning out to be pretty interesting and reasonably useful, a girlfriend that's just tops, a group of friends that are incredibly entertaining, working knowledge of almost all of the square area between Connecticut & T Street Northwest and the Capitol Building, I weigh substantially less than I did when I sat on my ass all day in Tucson, I've developed an overwhelming preference for pretentious beverages like Amber beers and Mead wine, and I've started using text messaging as an actual means of communication.

...Turns out there actually are times when text messaging is more useful and convenient than dialing the phone. Those homosexuals I knew in college were right.

Now back to business.

- Gamepaign 2008 is not dead either. As I've been thinking for months but never writing, I'm waiting for the Democrats to have a candidate. As soon as they do, there will be an endless river of my political opinions flowing into your eye sockets. Probably. Probably into your eye sockets, I mean, not probably there will be a river.

- I will return to posting stupid blog posts the minute I have slightly fewer things to do with my now-limited free time. I have to get used to this crazy 9 to 5 schedule, ya know? I mean, it's hard to get enough sleep and wake up at 7:30 in the morning when you're so used to drinking all night and waking up on the front lawn at three in the afternoon the next day. At least I would assume it would be hard.

- In the mean time, all you 4ECon Readin' Types should be reading good blogs. Some totally cute girl recently asked me for a list of my 5 favorite blogs written by people I don't know personally. Even though Foreecon's target demographic is balding, quasi-Libertarian intellectuals with
too much free time and not "totally cute girls," I've decided to publish a list of my 5 favorite blogs that I think well rounded totally cute girls (and possibly others) should be reading. Here's my most favoritest blogs in my Google Reader in no particular order:

Physics arXiv
This blog is the bitchinest piece of bitchinosity I've ever bi... read. If you don't love it, I don't like you or your bitchy attitude!

Overcoming Bias
Best statistics/philosophy/economics blog in existence. Sooooooooooo good, it blows my mind into my booties on a weekly basis. I'm serious, you will be shocked.

The Undercover Economist
Most readable economics blog in the blorld. If you don't appreciate economics and economists now, read this blog. You will appreciate economists so much that you will soon find yourself looking for one to perform fellatio on. In bed. There's your horoscope, Scorpio.

Marginal Revolution
Slightly heavier on the econ. It is fantastic. Tyler Cowen is my favorite person in existence right now, and has been for almost a year. In fact, when I grow up, I will be Tyler Cowen.

Dr. Buttery's Public Health Blog
That's actually his name. I think that's an anti-aptonym. I can't get enough of this blog for some reason - It's nice to read stuff outside of your usual field of interest, ya know? Check it out, you'll find a bunch of commentary on recent medical studies and their impact/importance/etc.

Belligerati
Incredibly rounded and well written. This has got to be my favorite variety blog. It's excellent. Absolutely excellent.

There ya are. There's my list of fivsix blogs you absolutely must be reading. Go read 'em.

---

OK, that's it. I'll see you all real soon-like. Real soon. Ish. Soon enough.

Revisiting

2008-04-18T15:24:00.005-04:00

In March I posted this, about employment discrimination lawsuits in the U.S. from 1978 to 2006. I received a number of good possible answers from people in the "real" world, so I s'pose it's time to figure out some kind of answer to the original problem. Check the Stolen Graphs post for a refresher...

Here's an email I received from a certain "Juliana," whose last name I will omit in order to prevent internet people finding out she associates with shady Conglomerates like this one. First check out the graph from the last post:

And here's what she wrote:

First, between 1991-1998, the economy grew tremendously, no? I like the quote I found on Wikipedia from David Greenberg, a Professor of Media Studies and History from Rutgers:

"The Clinton years were unquestionably a time of progress, especially on the economy [...] Clinton's 1992 slogan, 'Putting people first,' and his stress on 'the economy, stupid,' pitched an optimistic if still gritty populism at a middle class that had suffered under Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. [...] By the end of the Clinton presidency, the numbers were uniformly impressive. Besides the record-high surpluses and the record-low poverty rates, the economy could boast the longest economic expansion in history; the lowest unemployment since the early 1970s; and the lowest poverty rates for single mothers, black Americans, and the aged."

So, it follows that on the whole people probably felt more secure in their jobs during 1991-1998 than they had during the Reagan/Bush years. Since they didn't think they'd be fired (note, single mothers, black Americans, and old people were more secure than ever), they may have been more inclined to air their grievances.

Also, they had relatively more support in terms of social policy programs. For example, a Clinton budget package included the Earned Income Tax Credit. Although it is illegal, poor and minority Americans likely had the perception that their employer would fire them indiscriminately if they complained, and that they (the poor people) would not have the resources to fight back.

Also, during a strong economy, most of these folks probably had more savings. That way, if they lost their jobs for a few months for complaining about discrimination, they were more likely to still be able cover basic expenses like heat and feeding their kids. Suddenly, they could stop worrying about survival and think about the fact that they made less than the white guy in the office next door.

Add to this a media climate that encouraged litigation and political correctness. We've also left out two important historical events that happened in 1991-1992: Rodney King and the Anita Hill hearings. These can't be left out of the picture because they altered the discourse around race and gender discrimination in the United States.

As far as the downturn in the graph, I credit that to the economic bubble bursting in 2001-2002 (tech bust, Bush tax cut for the wealthy, etc.). Suddenly, people were more worried about job security and feeding their kids again. General inequities (women making 70 cents on the dollar, for example) still mattered, but not as much on a personal level.

Very well said. So let me summarize her ideas, if I may, before I comment:

1. Higher job security meant people were "more inclined to air their grievances" with less fear.
2. The Clinton Administration provided "More support in terms of social policy programs," providing, at the very least, a psychological safety net.
3. More savings (stemming from economic growth) should have the same safety net effects.
4. A "media climate that encouraged litigation and political correctness."
5. Finally, economic stagnation helps explain the reversal in the graph.

All very good, very plausible theories.

And here's an email I received from a certain "Dave," (not my alter ego) whose last name I will omit because I didn't ask if he minded if I used his email for blog fodder (...I assume he doesn't...):

I think the graph of employment discrimination cases follows the graph of all civil cases pretty closely until 1993--the start of the Clinton administration, when workplace issues and labor discrimination became part of the public dialog. It rises disproportionate to the overall graph until 2002, when people had more important things to worry about.

Basically, it was more socially and politically acceptable to sue over workplace discrimination during the Clinton's America than ever before. 9/11 changed the social, political, and legal agenda of America so that this was no longer the case.

Both of them came to somewhat similar conclusions, I think. Of course, The Other-Dave deserves credit for writing me almost a month ago with his ideas as well as for helping me form some more thorough answers in the "real world." I didn't think I'd be revisiting this post until Juliana spoke up this week, though, so I figured I'd point this out... Also - Thanks to both of you for your thoughts.

Anyhoo...

Here's my commentary:

First off, I agree with everything that both of these folks have said. There is no reason to doubt that increased public attention, the effects of economic growth, certain policies enacted by the Clinton Administration and the media's effect on culture (e.g. political correctness) would bring to light discrimination by U.S. employers.

There are, however, a few problems:

1. The beginning of the rapid growth in employment discrimination suits in the graph was around the first part of 1991. In fact, from 1991 to the beginning of 1993 (before Clinton even took office), lawsuits rose from about 8,000 to about 12,000, a 50% rise. That's pretty significant, and can't be explained by Clinton-related policies. It can, however, still be explained in part by public attention, media focus, expectations, et al.

2. These theories operate under the assumption that employer discrimination levels remained unchanged over the years. Instead of people reporting it more, it's possible that employers were actually discriminating more. Is it not likely that the rapid growth of discrimination cases from 1991 to 1998 is due in large part to the growth of business, new jobs and discrimination rather than just the growth of discrimination reporting? Take a look at total job growth from 1990 to 2007:

With such dramatic job growth, you could expect the sheer number of employment discrimination suits to rise dramatically as well, right?

3. More relevant, I think, is the type of new jobs that were being added to the economy. Technological growth and innovation was the major driver of economic growth in the '90s, and businesses in this industry were young, inexperienced and, perhaps, not focused much on proper hiring/firing practices. It's even quite possible that it took four or five years for these businesses to train and/or hire the right kind of human resources staff to prevent such discrimination. (Thanks to Other-Dave, again, for helping me formulate this idea.) To give you an idea of tech jobs growth by itself, here's some data from the BLS on the Computer Services sector:
Notice that the beginning of the curve is around the start of 1991, just as in the discrimination graph.

4. And the statistical problem: The data set is very small. If we had data from the '50s, '60s and '70s, perhaps we might discover that dramatic changes in the number of employment discrimination suits and a low correlation with civil suits are not unique occurrences. It's possible that all periods of economic growth see such dramatic rises, and we just happen to have a graph that exaggerates the effect in the '90s. Maybe.

5. But the biggest problem of all, in my opinion, is the failure of most of these theories to explain the latter part of the graph: The decrease in lawsuits from 1998, the temporary increase in 2001-2003 (during a recessionary period, no less!), and then the big drop starting in 2004.

Even an economic/business growth theory, by itself, wouldn't account for the 2000-2006 period. Here's a GDP graph to help show why:

(We could also just use the job growth graph from above.)
If discrimination suits are directly correlated to GDP growth, we'd see the decrease starting in the third quarter of 2000. In theory. Also, from Q3 2000 to the following year we'd see a consistent decrease, but that happens to be the one time in the period from 1999-2006 that discrimination cases are increasing in the graph (figured I'd post it again):

So, if I had to come up with a theory that used the fewest numbers of most-likely explanations, it would be this:

The growth of tech-sector jobs from 1990 to 2000 was the primary contributor to discrimination cases during that period, mostly due to the fact that they were new, inexperienced, operating in a non-traditional sector, and - most importantly - they sprouted up faster than the supply of trained hiring mangers/lawyers/human resources staff. Growth of these companies didn't slow in 1998, but the supply of trained human resources employees started to overtake tech-company growth around that time. The longer-term decline in discrimination lawsuits followed, as tech-sector growth was finally in line with human resources growth. When tech-sector growth started lagging behind other sectors, the number of lawsuits started to regress even more rapidly to the mean. The one blip in the graph - the small upward trend from the latter half of 2000 to the end of 2002 - can be explained by substantial job losses nationwide, from which there are bound to be a slightly increased number of wrongful firing/discrimination suits.

---

But, in reality, I think the answer might have a lot more to do with specific legal policies. As I am both lazy and obsessed with economics, though, my theory has everything to do with economics and nothing to do with things that involve reading law history.

This is a pretty good start, I think. If you combine the theories from Juliana, Other-Dave, Gretchen and myself - provided there were no specific and overly obvious legal policies that correspond precisely with the graph - then we've probably got an answer as to how to explain the employment discrimination graph.

Right?

Thank you guys, a ton, for playing along. Let me know if I've missed anything...

Miscellany

2008-04-04T15:47:00.003-04:00

That's right, Conglomerate, we've got a new flag. In fact, it's a conglomeration of flags. Isn't that adorable?

Time for some unrelated tidbits of semi-interesting stuff:

1. Miscellaneous Correlation Theory

The attractiveness of future generations is directly proportional to the male/female ratio of the current generation.

Explanation:

More males than females in a population means males are going to be in greater competition with each other, giving females greater choice in a mate. Greater choice for females means more men toward the "ugly end of the spectrum" are going to be left out, or crowded out by the relatively more desperate good looking men.

On the flip side, more females than males in a population doesn't necessarily lead to a similar outcome. Since the choice to have children lies with the female, women on the "ugly side of the spectrum" that would otherwise be crowded out of the dating market can still reproduce via artificial insemination, unfaithful males, etc.

So, if there are more men than women, only the better looking men will be able reproduce, but with all "types" of women. If there are more women than men, the better looking women will reproduce with all "types" of men, but the not-so-good-looking women will (can) reproduce by other means. And these other means don't discriminate by appearance as much as the others...

So long story short:

If our generation had significantly more men than women, we'd naturally end up with relatively better looking (more attractive in all important areas, really) children.

...Though I could be missing something important... Anyone see a flaw here?

2. Interesting Psychology

From Wikipedia:

"According to Self-perception theory, people undergo overjustification effect because by observing what they do and why they did it, the extrinsic motivation appears to be the main cause and so undermines their intrinsic motivation."

In other words, we determine our attitudes by trying to watch ourselves act from an outside perspective and rationalizing what acting implied, and doing this obfuscates the real, initial reason for the act.

Just yet another theory that makes you wonder why you really do believe the things you believe, ya know?

3. Miscellaneous Behavioral Econ/Psychology Study

From the abstract of this paper:

"In 4 studies with political and economic decision-making scenarios, it was consistently found that individuals with depleted self-regulation resources exhibited a stronger tendency for confirmatory information processing than did individuals with nondepleted self-regulation resources,"
and
"individuals with depleted self-regulation resources experienced increased levels of commitment to their own standpoint, which resulted in increased confirmatory information processing."

So what does this mean?

It means, apparently, that people with more confidence are able to be more objective. People with lower confidence (lower self-esteem, if you will...) are more stubborn. (Curtsy to Overcoming Bias for translating the psychobabble.)

If the person you're arguing with is incredibly stubborn and unable to accept your perspective in the argument, it's possible they just have low self-confidence. Maybe. Or, possibly, maybe you do.

Since I finally mentioned "curtsy," I'll give a Curtsy to our rarely-seen-these-days friend Chris Jeffords for coming up with the idea of saying "curtsy." I highly recommend that everyone adopt it immediately.

4ECon - March 2008

2008-04-04T14:55:00.001-04:00

Ah, March. Here's the scoop:

1. I defended CEO pay against a Congress attack. Other people defended their jaded perspectives against a Dave attack. It's all in the comments.

2. I wrote a few more notes to people that certainly do exist. For the record: It's a Hertz Doughnut. You get it, right?! Maybe that joke was before your time...

3. I stole a graph and commented on it, then asked my readers to figure out an answer. While a couple of real-life acquaintances and I believe we've figured out a [way too complex] answer, only Steampower-G came back with a theory (a good one, too) in this digital world (the comments section). Shame on all you other digital people!

And that's it. Yes, my blog-post rate experienced a rapid deceleration in March, I know. It's not that I don't have a ton of useless crap to write about, it's just that I started an imaginary emu farm in the middle of the month and now I've got all these emus to care for. ...Metaphorical emus, of course. You know what I'm talking about.

- Davis

Stolen Graphs 1: Make Some Crap Up

2008-03-21T16:15:00.005-04:00

I stole this graph from some law blog a couple months back, and now I can't remember where I got it. Regardless, I'm two-bit enough that nobody's going to sue me. Well, actually... It was a law blog...

...Oh well:
OK, the green line is all U.S. civil discrimination cases, and the black line is, as you can see, only discrimination cases against employers.

What I think is wildly interesting about this graph is that starting at the end of 1991, after 10 years of almost no change, employment discrimination cases started a massively steep climb that didn't cap out until almost 1999. So I'm thinkin' that one or more of the following must be true from 1991 to 1998:

1. Employers were discriminating more,
2. Employees were filing more discrimination lawsuits, independent of employer behavior,
And/Or
3. The small possibility that the legal system started classifying discrimination lawsuits differently.

#3 poses a problem, though: If it were true, why does this graph even exist without disclaimer (this is only mildly troubling) and, also, why was there such a steep decline in lawsuits from 1999 to 2008?

The blog I stole this from didn't have much insight into the matter, if I remember correctly, and I have only one theory (two actually, but the second is overly simplistic, I think). But, of course, my theory is entirely dependent on economics. This narrow view is usually never enough in these situations, so I figured I'd enlist some help.

So here's your challenge, dear 4ECon Readin' Types:

Make up a narrative that fits the graph. In other words, make some crap up that could possibly help explain why the black line on the graph looks the way it does. I'm thinking that pretty much any theory will help shine some light on it, so let your imaginations go freakin' wild.

More Notes to People

2008-03-17T19:39:00.001-04:00

This time, I admit it; I'll come clean: Some of the people I write notes to don't care about my notes. Hell, sometimes they don't even respond!

Regardless -

A note to DC's local Fox affiliate News:

Economic Crisis?! Seriously? Unemployment is barely up - and just recently, no less. Housing prices haven't even really begun their [likely] precipitous fall, manufactured goods orders just hit their ALL-TIME HIGH in December, GDP rose in the most recent quarter (albeit extremely slowly...), stocks are still high (The Dow is at exactly the same level it was around this time last year, S&P down just a bit), inflation is turning out to be relatively tame (so no stagflation worry, in theory) and the Federal Reserve is being unbelievably vigilant and pumping money everywhere it sees fit.

Now I'm not saying you shouldn't start freaking out, crying and go out and buy a 10-year supply of Spam, but there is certainly no economic crisis going on right now.

Notice I said 'right now.'

A note to the Hertz Car Rental company:

I'm totally going to go buy some doughnuts and give them to you. Then, once you've assumed ownership of said doughnuts, I will go around to each of your employees asking if they want one of these doughnuts and then promptly proceed to punch each employee in the arm and laugh hysterically.

See you all real soon,
- Dave

A note to the guy sitting next to me on the flight to Arizona who was wearing a helmet and a bowtie and told me the falling U.S. Dollar is a bad thing:

Our money has been very much in demand all over the world during the past 15 years or so. Up until recently, this has been a primary contributor to our country's Current Account deficit. In other words, we've been importing way more stuff than we export, but this is mostly because our money is so valuable in other countries, and that makes everything relatively cheaper elsewhere.

This is completely natural, but it can't last forever. The Dollar has been falling the last few years, and as it does, our goods get cheaper to foreigners and they'll demand more of our stuff. This is good for our economy, not bad, as it means more domestic jobs and more money flowing in. Sure, the price of imports goes up, but the increased demand for U.S. goods and services should help balance that out.

As simply as I can possibly put this: You don't have to worry about a "falling Dollar." The only thing that really matters is the usefulness of the products and services we produce, which really has nothing to do with exchange rates and everything to do with our skills, education, ability and so on.

A note to the guy that didn't see the 3D Dinosaur movie yesterday:

It was disappointing.

Sure, we were tired after the parade and just a little hungover from all that Irish whiskey that you forced on us the night before, but there just weren't enough 3D dinosaurs in that 3D Dinosaur movie. There were a few, but I don't think there were enough.

There were, instead, a lot of 3D shots of some paleontologist sitting next to a fossilized dinosaur footprint and looking off into the distance, thinking about dinosaurs... If only his thoughts were in 3D, it might have been a good movie...

Oh yeah, and, also, thanks for all that whiskey.

Come to think of it, I guess, maybe, in retrospect, I probably should have listened to that old adage: Don't drink a bunch of whiskey and then expect dinosaurs to solve all your problems.

Truer words are rarely spoken.

CEOs Are People Too. Rich People.

2008-03-07T16:38:00.015-05:00

I've had just about enough of this:

CEOs Defend Their High Pay on Hill

In short, the government is holding hearings trying to figure out why CEOs are paid so much, even when their companies are failing.

Is this an intriguing topic to anyone in the Conglomerate? Is everyone thinkin', "Yeah! Why are those bastards makin' 600 times what the average worker makes?!"

I hope so, because otherwise writing about it would pointless and boring.

Here ya go:

Imagine you're on the board of a Fortune 500 company and you're looking to hire a new CEO. How do you attract the best candidate for the least amount of money?

Well, there are two variables (that are important, anyway).

1. Competition.

You and your board of directors are competing with other companies of similar caliber for CEOs. A young, talented CEO on the lookout for a job will compare your salary offer with other companies. Of course.

If your competition is paying $500,000 a year with tens of millions in stock options, you must either do the same or get a second-rate candidate. For the most difficult, most abstract, important and immeasurably stressful job in the entire company, you're going to have a hard time hiring a second-rate candidate and explaining to the stockholders that you "just don't want to pay to hire the best." Individual stockholders, for some wacky reason, don't see a problem with paying an extra million from their multi-billion dollar company's wallets to get a better-than-average candidate. Since so many competing companies are all facing the same problem with similar circumstances, CEO salaries will clearly go up fast, likely to the limit of the stockholders' tolerability level.

Clearly, stockholders can tolerate a lot of money going to their CEOs in salary and bonuses. If not, they'd vote 'em down.

2. Reputation.

If you were that top-tier CEO candidate looking for a job, would you rather work for a company that has a history of short-changing CEOs when their risky decisions turn out badly, or would you rather work for a company that pays their CEOs handsomely even when the company is failing?

Yes, it's a hilarious reality we live in, but not only does paying CEOs when they fail encourage them to make bold, sometimes risky, decisions, but it also acts as a signal to other potential CEOs. Chief Executive Officers don't work at the company forever, you know, and incoming candidates will be clearly more attracted to companies that have shown they pay for risk-taking behavior instead of punish it. Who on Earth would prefer to be punished for enacting [what you believe are] ingenious, but risky, business strategies?

That's it. That's why companies pay their CEOs so damn much. No, it's not technically fair, but they're not really, necessarily being overpaid, either. Just because the incentives are in the wrong place and somewhat hard to keep in check, and competition between companies in a great economy (ours) pushes CEO salary offers to the sky doesn't mean that it doesn't motivate individuals to work much, much harder to be more desirable to these companies. A business culture that pays CEOs millions upon millions of dollars certainly inspires people to want to be CEOs, don't ya think? The more CEOs, the more competition between CEOs, and the more and greater talent we have to choose from.

That's progress, dammit, with the bill paid by shareholders of giant companies. I see no problem here...

4ECon - February 2008

2008-03-04T19:56:00.001-05:00

I forgot it was already March. Weehoo, that was a fast month...

As is the pointless tradition around here, it's time to remind nobody what didn't happen in February. Wait, scratch that - reverse it. Everybody, here's what did happen in February:

1. Candidates were released from Gamepaign 2008 after failing miserably (Click on the link and scroll all the way down if you want to see their histories): Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney and, of course, Mike Randolph (who didn't actually fail miserably - technically he's still in. See here.)

2. I gave John McCain some praise that he may or may not have deserved, and I totally kissed the ass of Barack Obama. There's some sort of major endorsement in that post somewhere, nestled within a bunch of rambling. Come to think of it, you know what I really like about Obama? All those xenophobic protectionists are going to be totally humiliated and red in the face when they find out Obama's been tricking them with the anti-NAFTA talk... Or so I hope...

3. I had a theory from which I might have derived an amazing algorithm for highly-efficient dating, had it not been for the fact that I'm crowded out of this market by people who actually know what they're doing. (People with computers, large databases and massive ad budgets...)

4. Part two of The Dating Game. Long story short, I didn't figure out that algorithm.

5. The MPAA lied on two separate occasions about pirates. I have proof.

6. I posted some short notes I wrote to people who exist only in a world where ceteris paribus is a phrase that everyone is not only aware of, but bored by.

And that's it. I'm fresh out of the usual [un]funny commentary that I normally put in this space. Instead, have a link to the coolest music-related thing I've ever seen in my life:

http://www.musicovery.com

Do it to it. You'll see, it's great.

- Dave

Notes to People

2008-02-26T19:45:00.012-05:00

Here are some notes I recently wrote to various people that exist:

A note to the guy who's always complaining about being underpaid:

Of course you're underpaid. If you were overpaid, the company would lose money on you, and if somehow you were magically paid exactly what you are worth, they'd break even and then what would be the point? Sure, I get it - you're complaining because you think the company's accounting of your contributions is incorrect, but you fail to realize that your company is a much better accountant than you. I dare you to test the theory that you're underpaid by applying to other companies.

Also, you're whiny and nobody likes you. Actually, that's the real reason you're underpaid.

A note to that hot girl that asked me my opinion on Shapes for Women Gyms:

They supply a preparatory location for women who plan on transferring, once they’re in good [acceptable] shape to the "regular" gym so they can meet men.

Yes, yes, I know - not all women go to the gym to be better looking for the opposite sex… …But most do. So the way Shapes makes consistent money is exactly the same way every gym makes its money: Their customers don’t actually get anywhere with their exercise program. Don't believe me? Well, have you ever met someone that canceled her gym membership because she decided she was finally in perfect shape? Usually people quit the gym because they've decided to be satisfied with their current condition (motivated, of course, by the high cost of gym membership).

So women go to Shapes, buy a membership, go there with lower-than-expected frequency (as they would to a regular gym) and never "graduate" to the preferred level. Unfortunately, this substantially reduces Shapes' women's odds of meeting men at the gym (since there are none) and reduces men's odds of meeting nice, but somewhat self-conscious, women at regular gyms. Totally, totally unfair. To the customers of Shapes Gyms I say just stay home, meet other fatasses on Craigslist, climb the stairs and lift paint cans. It'll be cheaper and it involves far less self-deception.

A note to the guy who says immigrants took his job:

Immigrants can’t actually take your job. If you were first fired and then replaced by an immigrant it means you were over-skilled for the job (judging by the pay requested), and you can get a better job.

If you think I’m wrong about this, and if you think you were not over-skilled, then why are you asking for so much more money in wages than someone else with equal (or greater!) skills as you? You’ll say, “Well, because his (the immigrant’s) standards are lower, he’s happier with being poorer, etc…” And I’d say, well, then, it seems you’re terrible at managing your costs. Is it really fair that because you’re greedier than those immigrants you deserve to be paid more?

Besides, if we somehow prevented all those immigrants from taking your job, we'd still have to worry about all those unskilled high school dropouts. You're screwed, man. Unless, of course, somehow, some way, you learn some sort of marketable skill or something... Though that seems like a lot more work than whining and bitching and masking racism...

A note to misguided movie producers:

We need more 3D movies about dinosaurs. You know why.

If anybody knows any other people that are wrong and need to be corrected via note, just let me know.

Pirate Bashing

2008-02-19T15:55:00.015-05:00

Not by me, of course.

I recently came across this very short statement about movie piracy among college students. It corrects some previous statistics the MPAA had released (they had significantly overstated the amount of piracy by students), but it also goes on to rant about the evils of downloading movies. I found this sentence particularly interesting:

"American workers miss out on thousands of new jobs each year and billions of dollars in earnings, in addition to the cities and towns that lose millions of dollars in tax revenue – all due to piracy."

I wouldn't be surprised if a majority of people believed this sentence. It's interesting not because the figures are exaggerated (they might be), but because the logic is wrong.

First off, there are some compelling reasons that college students might be the biggest movie pirates. They are often more interested in media, they have lower incomes, they are generally more technologically savvy and they are not as "set" in their beliefs of morality as older folks are.

When companies set their DVD prices, they are focused on their largest demographics; their biggest spenders, which most likely does not include poor college kids. In other words, college kids are "priced out" by all the higher income folks that are willing to spend $12-$20 on DVDs. The fact that college students will make the effort to illegally download/copy movies while the "recent graduates" (for example) demographic does not seems to prove the fact that the price is out of their affordable range. If piracy were suddenly impossible, these college kids would, in large part, still be priced out of the market.

This being the case, the relevant question is this: If it were suddenly impossible to pirate movies, would college kids suddenly start spending "billions of dollars" on movies? I think we've inferred already that this would not be the case, but let's just play along and assume the MPAA article is correct.

This means that there are "billions of dollars" worth of resources in one of two places. In the hypothetical world where piracy was impossible, the billions of dollars is in the hands of movie producers and sellers. In our world where piracy is possible, these billions of dollars lie in the hands of whoever sells stuff to college kids, since college kids get to retain the money that they'd otherwise spend on movies.

In short, either movie producers and DVD sellers get the money or clothing stores, the cafeteria at the student union, liquor stores and pornography site webmasters get the money.

That's what college kids spend their money on, right?

Anyway, the point is this: It doesn't matter who gets the money - the "thousands of new jobs each year and billions of dollars in earnings" will exist either way. Whether or not it's good for the economy is solely a matter of determining the incentives created by the money and how people ultimately use it.

My guess is that the MPAA article is just using a little fear mongering to draw attention away from the earlier mistake they made. They can bite me - I'm going to go download Deep Impact or Twister, or some other movie of that excellent, high-dollar blockbuster genre. God knows I'm not paying for that crap.

The Dating Game, Part Two

2008-02-14T02:14:00.007-05:00

Here's your weekend reading assignment, 4ECon:

Three things related to pairing up that I'm going to bullsh... er, talk about, I mean, in this post:

1. People are generally unaware how to maximize their dating success - Many people are often too hopeful, decreasing their odds of a landing a successful relationship, while others are "settling" too often.

2. Your instincts on who to date must, by definition, lead you in the wrong direction.

3. There's a way, possibly, that you can override your instincts, extract brutal honesty from yourself and solve the problems in #1 and #2.

First, some background:

Without being too obvious, I'd say there's a difference between getting a date and finding a mate. Dates only require some version of some form of attraction to go forward, but pairing up for longer periods - finding a mate - will succeed or fail based on a wider variety of prerequisites: Desire to start a family, age, expectations of future dating success (desperation, really), and very importantly, your perceptions of the dating pool.

A lot of the people I know that are paired up did so with minimum conscious strategy and maximum luck - even my parents who've been married for 33 years. Almost entirely before any of the prerequisites I listed set in, they'd already started dating. As far as I know, the desire to start a family was not consciously why they initially got together. They were young, not desperate, with high expectations of both themselves and, I'm sure, their possible alternatives (the dating pool.)

So the way it worked for my parents was that they coupled, they liked each other, and the bigger reasons for staying together kicked in over time, after years of dating. This is a pretty common story, I think.

But what are the odds that relationships between these types of couples last for as long as, say, a highly calculated and formulaic match between two people with similar perspectives on things like starting a family, age, dating alternatives, etc? Well, the filtering process in the first case happens like this:

You date one person and then you break up if it doesn't work. You date another, end it if it's bad. You date another and end it if it's not "meant to last," etc. You keep dating until you find someone that either has the same perspective as you or morphs into the preferred perspective along the same time frame as you.

Filtering partners this way has a problem. I would compare it to trying to find the answer to a math problem by guessing and checking - only in this scenario checking involves significant bias. In other words, it's hard to rationally compare your current choice of mate to alternative options after you've invested so much time in him or her. ...In econospeak: the transaction costs of switching partners are high enough to prevent efficient allocation. (Sorry, couldn't resist.)

But does this really mean the probability of success using this method is lower than it otherwise could be? Consider a possible second method:

You take a test, determine your personality traits, your desire to start a family, your perception of the dating pool, your level of desperation (essentially) and then a computer uses a complex algorithm to match you with a partner that should maximize your probability of long-term success. This is also known as eHarmony - though I'm not sure they come right out and ask how desperate you are (but I'd bet they can get at it indirectly).

Now how could an algorithm that knows more information about you than you'd normally release by the 15th date, that sufficiently solves the problem of getting information into a centralized location, that takes potential pairs from the largest [possible] pool and matches them possibly offer you a lower probability of success than the first method, the guess-and-check?

Well, maybe because the type of people who put themselves in the centralized database are exactly the kind of people who have given up in the real world. The type of person that has not given up in the real world is most likely young, optimistic, confident and believes (likely with sufficient reinforcement) that the real world dating options are acceptable. These are exactly the kind of people that other people want to date, and thus they have not given up on the real world - it is not incredibly obvious that your dating options are severely limited when you're getting easy dates, albeit with second rate partners. ...Not to mention the fact that people often date, and even get married, for reasons of claiming (or pinning down, if you will) the best partners, regardless of overall "fit."

So what's the lesson to be learned here, Dave?

Let's get technical. EMH - Efficient Market Hypothesis, in finance, states that prices of assets will reflect all available information and it is therefore impossible for a single person to beat the market. The same rule should apply for all markets provided there is no barrier or limit on information.

The way this applies to the dating market is that it suggests that, within the multiple realms of date-matching (the real world or online), you will be paired with someone who is equally as "dateable" as you, in theory, over the long term. If you have the same information about the dating market as everyone else, you can't really exploit the market to your advantage - or, in relevant terms - you can't trick a '10' (from our scales in Part One, and from the "general scale" too) into a long term relationship with you if you're a '5', at least for any considerable amount of time.

There are, of course, exceptions to this general rule. One of them is that as long as divorce is socially or literally expensive, we'll get distortions. This is a lot less common now than it was 50 years ago, but it's still there, obviously.

Another exception is apparently (according to Tim Harford and others) a person's perception of the overall dating market, mostly due to the size of the available dating pool. If someone perceives their options as severely limited, they will be more likely to "settle." If this isn't obvious, here's a long argument that seems to prove it. Basically, people really do respond to supply and demand in the dating marking, and they decide to date and get married using the information available to them at the time. Perfectly normal.

So this means that a '5' could conceivably trick a '10' into a longer-term relationship for some amount of time given a significant and relatively permanent imbalance of the dating pool. Provided the '10' is not aware that he or she could be dating other '10's, the relationship should and probably would continue without too many problems.

Here's the more important question, though: If your goal is a long term relationship - even marriage - is it really the best strategy to try to exploit the market? Even if a '10' is actively choosing partners from a sea of '5's, the probability that a '10' will discover his or her error at some point and try to undo the deal (AKA breakup or divorce) is substantially higher than the probability of a '6' (dating a '5') discovering his or her potential.

So, assuming that the goal is a long-term relationship, doesn't it make sense to avoid your natural instincts - to not chase the best available mate, AKA avoid people who are "above" your dateability level?

I know, I know, it's an vague idea, but there is some way to figure out whether or not you are matched with your partner in terms of overall desirability to the opposite sex.

This is, in fact, one of those things that people just know. For a small example, if you're constantly worried about your partner cheating on you then it means the odds that you've unknowingly (or knowingly) exploited a dating market loophole are quite high. It's not a sure thing, of course - you could just be completely paranoid. But then being completely paranoid is also a sign that your partner might be more well-adjusted (less crazy/paranoid), and perhaps therefore more desirable than you.

(This post's link is unrelated, like usual, but I think it's pretty interesting)

All this might be pretty obvious to you. It also might just be useless if you're happily dating/engaged/married/dying of cancer. Otherwise it just may be helpful - if you're looking for that perfect match, or if you're just really desperate for a "LTR" (See: Any Craigslist ad in a random city for women in their late 30s), taking the scientific approach - the economic approach - just might be the best strategy.

If eHarmony and other online dating algorithm-based databases can, in theory, maximize your probability of a long-term success with a partner in the second-rate online world, shouldn't there be a way to do it in real life - where the first-rate people have yet to give up - as well? If all the most desirable people are facing substantial bias and asymmetrical information about their alternatives in the real world, shouldn't there be some way to find the "perfect" match that takes into consideration your individual market circumstances?

There should be - and maybe I'll be able to make some crap up by the next excruciatingly long post.

For now, arrivederci.