I've decided that even the best educational shows on TV - Like Nova on PBS and History Channel documentaries - are too drawn out, too specialized and not incredibly helpful in clarifying my current reality. Of course they're helpful, but not as much as reading non-fiction or surfing Wikipedia. So what I'd really like to see is a show that spits out data, and has multiple "interpreters" suggesting what the data might signify, or why it is the way it is. For example, the first five minutes of the show, they'd cover the unemployment rates over the past century and put them in historical context (like who the president was, what the stock markets were doing, all possible reasons for anomalies in the data, and so on). After that, they'd spend two minutes refuting (or verifying) all the news stories we see on TV that make us believe that crime is out of control with actual data, rather than alarmist opinion crappola. The next 23 minutes of the show would have to be women wearing bikinis washing monster trucks, because it would probably get better ratings (in order to justify the show's existence).
In fact, there should be a show that intersperses rock hard data analysis with scantily-clad dancing women, showing in one minute the benefits of international trade, and in the next the dangers of sexual autarky.
They could call it the Rock Hard Show, for a variety of reasons...
But, alas, there is no show of this awesome caliber. Second best, of course, is posting Rock Hard Data on this blog, which I'm going to do right .... now!
----------------------------------------
Have some national crime data:
These statistics are entirely from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and put into a nice little neat spreadsheet by yours unemployed, er, I mean, truly.
While the news reports crimes at a nightly rate, the actual rate of occurrence of these crimes has been decreasing since 1993.
Just for clarification, the two left data columns are the number of occurrences, the middle columns are the increases (decreases, actually - the 'change' column) in the number of occurrences of the crime in the descriptor (left) column as well as the percentage decrease ('% change') of that crime from 1997 to 2005. The two columns on the right are the actual crime rates that people are always referring to.
For example, Robbery victimized .26% of the "eligible" population (which, by the way, was considered to be people over the age of 12, or 244.8 million people in 2005, and 219 million in 1997). That means, for every 10,000 people in 2005, there were 26 robberies (attempted or successful) - and for every 10,000 people in 1997, there were 43, and that's a % change (in the number of total occurrences of this specific crime) of -33.8%.
So, while the "crime age" population (12+) increased from 219 million in 1997 to 244 million in 2005, the occurrences of EVERY SINGLE CRIME that is measured by the BJS decreased dramatically.
Questions?
"Yes, Dave. All the old people I know are convinced that the crime rate in this country is consistently getting worse. Haven't you heard 'em say, "Back in my day, we'd leave our doors unlocked all the time? " Since 1 old person's gut feelings is equivalent to 3 young persons' knowledge of reality, something has got to be wrong. Maybe the criminal creation of fear is preventing people from even reporting crime to the police! Eh? Did you think o' that, smart boy?"Holy crap, maybe that's the problem! Crime has moved underground and escaped the
impotent and weak grasp of statistical confidence intervals!
Just kidding - Take one look at this graph and then go straight to 'time out' to think about what you've done.
Any other meaningful questions that don't involve Steven Levitt or abortion?
Good.
In case you start asking yourself why the crime rate is constantly going down, check out this hot mutha, then this one, and then this little bastard right here. I have no idea if these actually shine light on the underlying truth, but they probably don't increase the crime rates... Probably...
It could also be abortion! (Read Freakonomics, it's a barrel of fun)
----------------------------------------
Rock Hard Disclaimer:
If, by now, you think I'm just making data come out of my asshole, you're welcome, as always, to double check every single one of my "facts." I use quotations there because I understand that any person, group or government agency could be blatantly distorting the truth or just collecting data incorrectly. If you'd like an interesting example of (likely) data manipulation, check out the Chinese ranking on Population % Living Below the Poverty Line (scroll to the bottom of the right list). China says they've got the 4th lowest poverty rate in the world, beating the U.S. by 8 percentage points. Wow, either communism is the only way to fly, or communist governments have a propensity to bend the truth. If only we had some historical evidence on that happening at some point in the past...
Anyways, all the crime data from this post is from our government. No, not the incompetent, truth-busting branch, the other one.
Check out the site, it's funtistically fabulous.
-----------------------------------------
...And a few more bits of BJS data, for the road:
1. The majority of people in prison are in there for committing violent crimes.
2. Contrary to statements I've heard about our racially biased justice system, the majority of people on death row are white. (The BJS really wants to let everyone know this fact, too, apparently...)
3. Apparently, about 15% of all major car accidents are caused by BJS. Can you believe that?!
Thank you, thank you very much...
No comments:
Post a Comment