Personal Handicapping

I just read that the odds of being an astronaut are 1 in 13.2 million.

I find this highly dubious. I could understand if the statement was "the ratio of astronauts to non-astronauts is 1:13.2 million." That would make more sense, as it wouldn't be implying that any one of us could have been an astronaut. Very optimistic, but unfortunately it's just not true. Anyone who has met (most of) my ex-girlfriends should be painfully aware of the limits of human achievement. No offense, ex-girlfriends.

Popular studies we read about or hear on TV almost always rely on past events and general population statistics when determining where or how much you’re at risk for something. For example, your odds of being struck by lighting are far greater than your odds of being eaten by a shark. Your odds of dying in a plane crash are far less than your odds of dying from your ceiling caving in spontaneously. Well, I made that up, but if you remove "spontaneously," it’s definitely true.

So, what happens to your odds if you cover yourself with blood and swim with sharks all the time? What happens to your odds if you fly a plane between Cuba & the U.S. every day during hurricane season?

They go way up.

Why do the "news" people on the TV and even informed statisticians use the citizenry’s past odds for things happening and then say they’re YOUR odds? They’re not yours. They’re Average Joe’s odds, and you should be calculating your own odds using a completely different method. What method, you ask? Well, I just happen to be writing a blog post about the very subject!



The point of knowing your odds for something is, basically, so you know what to be conscious, or afraid, of, or on the other hand, so you can stop being afraid of something. That's why you always hear about your low odds of dying in a plane crash...

There are some things you should be afraid of, and others that you should completely ignore. Let's figure 'em out: First you need to rank all the places you go by how much of your time is devoted to each location. Question #1:

1. Where do you spend most of your time? Second most? Third? Fourth through fiftieth?

Second, you need to figure out the major risk factors at each location. Question #2:

2. You just read what you need to do, there isn't really a question #2.

So if your top answer for #1 is “at work,” then ask yourself about the specific dangers at work and then start being afraid of them, applying the appropriate fear levels to the right things. For example, do you work at a knife factory? A Chinese toy factory? A gold smelting plant? These are places where you should be completely freaked out all the time. Don’t worry about the latest article that said your chances of prostate cancer are 1 in 3, you should spend more time being paranoid about what Billy Jones is doing with that knife or why Chang Lee is trying to get you to lick that toy.

Yes, I assume Chinese toy makers are reading this blog.

If your answer to #1 was, like mine, “the kitchen,” remember to be especially afraid of dishwashers left open, exploding toasters and, my personal favorite, barely visible water spills on the kitchen floor. Who knows - you just might not dislocate your elbow while standing in the kitchen if you’re fearful enough. Here’s a funny and true story: I was actually thinking about the chain-reaction effects of the rain (it was raining outside at the time) on people and why the Grits I had just eaten wouldn’t get out of my teeth right before I experienced my elbow-dislocating fall in my kitchen in July of this year. If only I had been thinking more about the dangers of kitchens and the dangers of standing in kitchens, I wouldn’t have fallen. Interestingly enough, I wouldn’t have started this blog, either… And, very likely, wouldn't have been inspired to over-obsess over economics, focus on a couple particular government economics jobs and ultimately move to Washington, DC.

So my act of just thinking about how a single variable (rain) can have butterfly-effects on people's lives actually had a butterfly-effect on my life: Thinking about the possibility led to a somewhat pensive, though jubilant, attitude and a lack of concentration on my surroundings; I carelessly whipped around from the counter to the fridge and put too much weight on one foot - right on top of the only water spot on the kitchen floor - and fell down, jammed my elbow up against the fridge and dislocated the hell out of it. A multitude of steps later, I'm on the other side of the country writing about it. Long story short, if it hadn't been raining, I'd probably be some sort of stock broker in Scottsdale by now. Seriously.

This story does seem a little too interesting, though, doesn't it? Oh well...

If the story's not entirely accurate (or if my life would have turned out the same regardless of elbow dislocation), I am hereby putting down in writing that it was the case. In two years I'll reread this post and reestablish a somewhat more incomplete - but more solid - memory that it was, indeed, the rain that caused this whole thing. So Future Dave: Ignore this particular paragraph. Also, Future Dave: Read the last sentences of paragraphs first, from now on...

OK, There. I'm done. My elbow dislocation story and its effects are officially down in writing, and I'm done talking about it for good, I swear. The end.



Did I get off topic?

Anyways... Back to the point:

Instead of concerning ourselves with general odds, we're smart enough - I think - to figure out what our specific, personal odds are. If you're a shark-tamer, you're clearly at higher risk for shark attacks. If you spend the weekends playing Chicken in your 1955 Chevy, you need more health insurance (or car insurance) than most.

You don’t need to know about general odds. They mislead everyone and they don’t do you any good except to raise awareness somewhat. Awareness should be raised, though, mostly through looking at your own personal actions and behavior. Giving more than 20 seconds of thought to the likelihood that you might die in a terrorist attack or buying expensive (excessive) health insurance is an exercise in promoting fear and wasting money, respectively. In fact, if I would have published this amazing blog post years ago, we’d probably have cheaper health insurance, less privacy invading laws and fewer presidents named Bush...

...

You like that? You like how I got all political at the end there? Yeah, I knew you would…

And remember, folks, be careful during the holidays: The odds of your Christmas tree catching fire are enough to get all worked up over... That is, of course, if you keep the menorah right underneath the tree...

Keep your menorahs away from the Christmas tree, people! In fact, do like I'm doing this year and just choose one or the other. You'll be much better off without all the neighbors making fun of your Chrismukkah decorations.