Thursday, September 20, 2007

Topical Cream 1: Free Trade

Why Topical Cream as a series title? Multiple reasons: 1. I'm going to cover topical subjects, 2. Topical cream is often intended to improve your health in some way and 3. Economics makes me feel creamy. Confusion over.

I was going to cover immigration, but got side tracked on it's base in free trade. So I'll do the post (that I promised to do anyway) on free trade first, then I'll use it for my immigration argument later on, so you have to pay attention, dammit. Doesn't this sound absolutely entitilating? Here's a nifty little thesis statement for you to use as a gauge of how interesting this post is going to be, because if you agree with the thesis, I don't recommend reading the post:

Claim: Outsourcing and free trade are extraordinarily beneficial to the U.S. and the world.

The only reason you're inclined to think otherwise is because of bad politicians, U.S. labor groups and/or a misunderstanding of economics.


I'm assuming most people don't agree with those statements. I'm also aware, though, that most people didn't sit through countless hours of International Trade Theory lessons, so I'll be a pally and share the beef:

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The benefits of outsourcing, programs like NAFTA and free trade in general:

Lowering the price of goods by allowing lower costs on the producer's side benefits citizens of our country MORE than creating artificial limits on who is allowed to work a particular job and the price at which the good can be produced. In the simplest possible terms I could possibly deem possible: We are better off when goods are cheaper, and more workers are better off when they are offered the "market wage." - The loser in free trade is the former employee, in this case an American. However, the negative fact that a very vocal minority of citizens lose their jobs pales in comparison to the benefits of the amount of money left in the system.

The thing to remember is that, when it comes to policy decisions, we have a choice between

A) No free trade: Goods are produced, Americans work the jobs, goods are priced "normally."
-or-
B) Free trade: The same goods are produced, other people have these jobs, goods are cheap.

The only difference - to 99.9999%+ of the U.S. and world population - is that they have more money in their hands in option B.

As a little example, if computers are made $100 cheaper by outsourcing their production to India (as is the case now), Americans save literally billions of dollars per year while purchasing the computers we require. Of course, this comes at the loss of potentially thousands of jobs in the U.S, but these employees are now forced to use their resources and skills in other areas, further depressing other jobs' wages and multiplying the benefits to the country as a whole. The wealth saved and redirected in the U.S. is always greater than the wealth lost through outsourcing - and the wealth gained in the other country is always greater than simply the purchase price of the goods they are now producing.

To put it even more simply, every time one job is lost to free trade, more than one job worth of resources, money and products is freed up or created by the transaction.

So what about the "victims" of outsourcing - jobless Americans?

Even if the relatively few out of work Americans have trouble finding work immediately, the excess money created by the added efficiency will create new businesses and new opportunities. At the very least, the fact that the process of trade liberalization creates wealth would allow the country (government) to temporarily support the few that become unemployed, which, in fact, is exactly what the U.S. does. If you're the guy who lost his job due to outsourcing, the worst case scenario would be this: Everybody else in the U.S. gets richer, the poorer people from the trading country get wealthier, and you are supported (hopefully only temporarily) by government unemployment/welfare, until you get a job - or gain the skills necessary to get a new job.

While the U.S. government is free to tax the wealth added by free trade and redirect the money to free trade's losers (e.g. U.S. factory workers) - and they are constantly tempted to do so - it would not be as beneficial to the economy, nor to those who've lost their jobs. If the government is reasonably patient and leaves the added wealth in the hands of those that originally earned it, we'll end up more "first world" jobs - more high tech, higher skilled jobs - to replace the ones that went to the third world. Over time, the country will evolve (already has, actually) to a more educated country and workforce while the third world countries around the world will do the hard, labor-intensive jobs that we used to do. Some day, China will start outsourcing jobs to Africa, and then the Chinese will be the ones sitting in cubicles, complaining about their excellent opportunities and great wealth while the Africans make all the cars and computers.

So, since the free trade / jobs evolution happens relatively rapidly - as it is happening now - we get a very large and very vocal push against globalization. People who lose their (usually lower skilled) jobs to free trade will try to demonize the whole process.

A huge number of these lower skilled jobs are unionized, so they have disproportionate political clout, thus the vocal and political push against free trade (or immigration, as I'll cover some other day). If you remember the last election - and I'm sure it's already come up during this one - outsourcing is a huge topic for the Democrats and not so much for the Republicans. If you can show me a large union that supports the Republicans, I'll be happy to explain this political anti-outsourcing sentiment some other way... As I just implied, the Republicans' anti-outsourcing sentiment occurs via "immigration reform," which will be a later post, so don't think I'm attacking just the Democrats.

Free trade can be blamed (correctly or otherwise) for a huge number of our woes, including rising income inequality and the loss of "middle class jobs." The trick, though, is that each of these problems is, in at least some important way, the necessary result of increasing total (world-wide) wealth at the expense of obvious and conspicuous victims (like GM and Ford employees). If the benefits were equally obvious and didn't require long and boring economics lessons, we'd all be cheering the multinational corporations and booing the politicians.

...And one more very important thing: When I say total, world-wide wealth, I mean the poorest poor people from the poorest poor countries in the world are huge winners in free trade. While their work might be hard and incredibly low-paying, it's the same (basic) work that an American was doing before the job was outsourced, but for less nominal money. In my opinion, taking a job away from ANY American and giving it to ANY Indian, Chinese or other third-world worker is exactly like robbing the rich and giving to the poor. Americans, no matter the wage (read the post "Have You Met the Poor?") are incredibly, shockingly, unbelievably wealthy in world terms, and it's only our lack of perspective that prevents U.S. factory workers, or GM employees from realizing that losing their job is one of the most noble and charitable things they will ever (unwillingly) do.

The best thing about this Robin Hood story, though, is that in the case of freer trade, robbing the rich makes the rich even wealthier, and giving to the poor involves not only literally giving money to the poor, but also giving the poor the ability to make money indefinitely.

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There. If I didn't explain any of that very well, or if I failed to include necessary points, let me know - To date, that's the best I've ever done at staying on topic while discussing free trade, though I probably should have broken the tirade with some Special Blog Bulletins to keep it entertaining...

Now go tell your friends to stop being unpatriotic socialists when you hear them complain about their tech-support guy's Indian accent. And if you ever feel like bashing Wal-Mart, remember that you're arguing in favor of the United States and the rest of the world accepting lower incomes and fewer jobs just so Mom & Pop can own their own inefficient store. I think if Mom & Pop understood the true implications of the world's Wal-Marts and General Motors Mexican auto factories, they'd voluntarily put themselves out of business and happily accept low-paying Wal-Mart jobs.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh, Dave. You are just a big softy. You could be the next Bono, but can speak coherently and would probably make more exciting music in your later years.

Anyways, entitilating is an awesome word.

Unknown said...

I agree with Zane - though the Bono reference is a bit scary...Dave isn't really promoting peace to the weak and weary as Bono does, he is promoting the weak and weary to get off of their lazy bums and do something - anything...except being a Mom and Pop - which is curious to me?!?

CBWPFMFFHWTAISHTMBMPEMATET! -
Confused, but with Pride for my friend for having writen this article, I sense he too may be misled, please explain more about the entrepreneur, Thanks!

Disposable Info said...

I'd better tackle that misconception right off:

I am most definitely not suggesting the "weak and weary get off their lazy bums" or that they do anything at all. In fact, I'm a big fan of laziness.

I am, however, suggesting that rich Americans stop hogging all the goods - if we'd stop being xenophobic and allow freer trade with the world, we'd be richer in this country and other countries would be much better off.

And I wasn't saying "Don't start your own business (AKA Mom & Pop store)," I'm saying that before you complain about Wal-Mart putting you out of business you should realize who it is that is really putting you out of business - It's the weak and weary who truly WANT to get off their bums.

For the record, Fred, I have zero clue what the ISHTMBMPEMATE part of the acronym means ("I sense he too may be misled, please explain more about the entrepreneur"). I'm guessing that you think I'm not including some explanatory point, or something...? Holla back.

That's HB, btw.

Zane: Thanks dude - that was quite a kind compliment. Bono, though, doesn't understand the correct way to allow poverty to correct itself (hint: Concerts aren't going to do the trick). I don't either, for that matter, but it certainly does not involve the U.S. hoarding and hiding opportunities from the rest of the world.
I did, However, lift "entitilating" from Mr. Show (the HBO show).

Unknown said...

The HB to my PC (prior comment), was PS (pure sarcasm). You are CR (completely right) in being confused from my PC. I was trying to figure out an acronym that would encompass my entire question.

so in short, your HB to the PC was CR.

Disposable Info said...

WWWYFP?

Figure that one out, Fred.

It pertains to your cell phone.

Unknown said...

Quick edit - the last sentence SHOULD read:

Your HB to my PC was CR.

Anonymous said...

WTH?

Anonymous said...

Bono doesn't promote peace (at least not directly). he is promoting debt relief to third world countries. Which is something I would actually like to hear what Dave has to say about.

Disposable Info said...

You know, I forgot what Bono was up to - He is, at least, trying to use some economics to change things for the better.

The trick to debt relief - and this is a huge generalization - is that if it takes a lot of outside pressure (e.g. Bono) to fight for it, there's a good reason that the lenders (The IMF, the U.S. or other larger, reasonable countries) don't want to just forgive the debt.

Basically, Bono wants to end poverty. The U.S. and the International Monetary Fund and other lenders want to end poverty. The problem, though, is that bad governments sometimes don't care about poverty - and even might require it to remain in power - so if there's a corrupt government (and there are lots of them in Africa), we have to use monetary incentives to get them to do what's best for their own people.

One of these is debt relief, or the offering of future loans, etc. Another would be assassination or war, but those aren't going to happen. If the government remains corrupt, then it's in the lender's (our) best interest to not give the government the monetary ability to stay in power (by relieving the countries debt) - And of course this comes at the (hopefully temporary) cost of the citizens of the country, which sucks, but is pretty much the best option we've got.

On the bright side, Bono probably knows infinitely more than most about which countries can properly handle new loans (debt forgiveness = more money). On the other hand, I have a feeling he has to fight so hard for debt relief because the governments of the countries he's trying to help are corrupt, and will use the money to increase their power.

What Bono should do - and for the record, I've always thought Bono was effin' great - is start a guerrilla army and use it to threaten corrupt governments. Unfortunately, he's not a "true hero" in the sense that he won't use any means necessary to fight corruption and end poverty - also, his funding (and album sales) would probably dry up if he started a powerful peacekeeping force.

It's a shame, too, because I would really like to see an army of guys wearing Zooropa-tour "fly glasses."

Oh, so here's my opinion on this whole thing: Bono is doing an excellent service by arguing in favor of debt relief, but I put much, much more faith in the IMF and the U.S. (And the G8) to make the final decision on what's best for debt-ridden countries.

Unfortunately I'm using logic here rather than historical perspective - a whole lot of people hate the IMF and the U.S. and most of Europe, and would most likely trust Bono's efforts more than anyone else's. I'd still argue against Bono, though...

There's a whole post worth of stuff that I've left out of this comment, by the way - mostly because I haven't looked into any details. Zane - What do you think? I might be missing something important, and I'd be you've got more info on specific events/activities related to Bono's efforts... I'm curious now.

Anonymous said...

I don't have any more insight into what Bono is doing. It's been a while since I have read into the specific causes.

I do think the "Red" campaign thing he is doing with the GAP and verizon and iTunes or whatever, is a bright idea. His AIDS work is outstanding.

I wish more people in his position would do stuff like that. Beyond showing up for a benefit concert.

Disposable Info said...

Agreed. It really does warm my heart to hear that the world's super-rich are trying to do some good. Bill & Melinda Gates, Warren Buffet, Bono, Bill Clinton, etc... Thinking about their influence and what they're doing with it actually make me feel good. I'm serious. I wish they'd do some more economically innovative stuff, though... Such as micro-credit financing - that's a different story altogether, though...

But now I can't stop opining:

I hadn't heard about the Red Campaign until now... That's interesting. For anyone who's curious:

[ www.joinred.com/manifesto ]

I hate to be the eternal pessimist, but it bothers me that humans would latch on to an advertised/corporate "cause" more than the actual cause.

'Red' products are, by definition of the business model advertisement, more expensive, and the red campaign costs money. It would be more effective if consumers would just send money directly to the Red companies' charities. However, if people would rather buy a product while simultaneously supporting charity rather than do the two things separately, then the inefficiency is worth it... That's what bothers me, though - that people, even after being inspired to contribute to charity - will donate to the inspiration rather than the actual charity.

Keep that in mind, charitable readers...

---
There, that was my contribution to charity - convincing people to bypass inefficiency when donating. I'm a saint.

Unknown said...

Heck - look at all of the awards that Gore has gotten in the past year for being a giving douche...

Why aren't these other people winning half of these awards...guys like Bono - good or bad - have been doing a lot more of this for a lot longer. Has Gore become the rock star of charity lately or what?

Small rant true - but none the less...It's not red time - it's GREEN time...

Dave - how's that for a left field, psycho, comment?

Disposable Info said...

What the hell is a "giving douche"?

...?

Gore's not the rock star of charity. I didn't even know he was winning awards...

Besides, I'd say we need more people aggressively asserting "crazy" "opinions" and winning awards for it. It gives legitimacy to debates and increases the probability of finding solutions, regardless of whether or not the debate is "IS THIS A REAL PROBLEM?" as it seems to be with global warming.

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Good job, Fred - It was pretty insane, considering I think you said "it's GREEN time!" right after calling Al Gore a "giving douche"...
That was pretty funny...

Unknown said...

Well I purposely called him a "giving douche" just for the obscurity factor...per our phone conversation...

I used that 'cleaning product' (if you will) to psychotically suggest his 'cleanup' attitude.

I do respect the fact that he is bringing major light to the environmental issues, even if he may be a bit melodramatic in some aspects. He has some decent shock value and imagination on the subject.

And considering all of the Red conversation, and since it seems the corporate world is really driven to market the Green factor, which very much coincides with Al Gore's cause, I had to bring it up - so sure, Go Green!

____


Now back to the original blog - I have one, possibly a few, more Foreecon opinion requests...

I like that you brought up the importance of NAFTA regarding goods in the Western Hemisphere - do you feel that there is a possibility of future politics to allow this to be reborn once again and would it create prosperity like it once brought to our hemisphere? Or will it remain a national security policy conflict?

I am also curious as to how you think the most efficient way to create a WFTA - or World Free Trade Agreement could be created. From what I can tell it would be a major economic hit to the current powers that be, (i.e. USA, Europe, China, etc.) but in the long term, since you feel this would benefit ALL of mankind much greater, what do you think would be the first steps? Transportation Logistics? Real Estate? World wide minimum wage rules? [side note - can you imagine how powerful of a world power the 'International' Teamsters could be...anywho..] How could/would this be governed at least in the beginning? Again, it seems that it would need all of the above mentioned powers that be, to kind of take charge, and what then would be the odds of a WFTA concept to actually get off of the ground?

Sorry for the long post - but as a Foreecon student, sometimes re-enforcement helps! I agree with your overall point, though I am curious as to any thoughts you may have as to what it would take to get that ball rolling in the right direction.

Disposable Info said...

Freddo:

Free trade (NAFTA) is still going strong between us North American buddies (Mexico - Canada), so that step has already been covered. The real trick is to expand free trade agreements to every country around the world - as you mentioned.

The interesting thing is that "allowing foreigners to take our jobs" SEEMS like it would hurt the U.S. (and the other "big guys" as you suggested) but, for the most part, it wouldn't - it would be almost completely beneficial. This isn't "eventually we'll be all right," it's a "we'll definitely be better off if we'd stop trade restrictions."

I'd say a World Free Trade Agreement is a freakin' awesome idea, though that's mostly what the WTO does...

It wouldn't require MORE governance to enact a "WFTA," just the agreement of the world's countries. Once everyone has agreed, the idea is LESS rules, not more. For example, minimum wage laws or forced participation or coercion or anything else of this nature should be given up, not enacted.

The basic idea is that someone in Malaysia can sell his products to someone in Canada with no government getting in the way and adding additional costs (through tariffs, or even subsidies). This requires no rules or regulations by any governing body.

The only thing that could possibly require regulation would be standards (like safety), but I would argue these can be taken care of through consumer groups... That's a different story entirely...

One more thing that you touched on, Fred: You said a WFTA might be a major blow to the big economic powers. For the most part this is not true, they'd all be better off. However, there are a few ways that a strong country can take advantage of a weak one, and that's by manipulating prices of, and demand for, products entering or leaving the country. Essentially, tariffs CAN be used to make another country more poor in order to make your own country better off, but this requires pretty crafty and difficult economics. Fortunately, the U.S. government is more interested in using tariffs and trade-restriction policies to gain popularity with U.S. voters, rather than craftily using complicated economics under the table...

Basically, the world's biggest economic powers will only argue against free trade when there's some huge political reason (and almost never an economic one.) So, Fred, in answer to your question about what the first steps are to get a world free trade agreement going: Get rid of trade restrictions (tariffs / subsidies / quotas), and we're golden. Simple, eh? To get the ball rolling, though, would involve convincing powerful and vocal political groups (like unions and other groups o' folks) that their constituents would have to lose specific jobs for the benefit of 99.999...% of the rest of the world, and that's probably pretty tough for our politicians...

Unknown said...

Well - that answers a lot of questions. Though it seems to be in a big general sense.

In order to properly implement this, wouldn't there need to be a global currency? Is there any good numbers or 'BAM' charts that better express how the Euro affected those countries when in transition?

Also at the end you suggest that people would be okay with a low-paying Wal-Mart job; wouldn't other markets, such as real estate, have to then fall for that kind of economic adjustment, just for the quality of life to continue? This is why that I say that it would really dent the powers that be. I feel that there would need to be an immediate equalibrium, and that would bounce many, many markets.

I also want to make it clear - that over time after making this transition, you would be right, we would be very prosperous - but how much damage could that possibly cause in the immediate switch?

Am I misplaced in what you are saying?

Disposable Info said...

I think you might be over-complicating the entire point of free trade:

Free trade means no tariffs, subsidies, quotas or any other government intervention. It's more simple, and requires LESS regulation than restricted trade, we don't need to change anything at all - no currency differences, no market shifts, nothing.

Markets won't go crazy, and the transition between restricted trade to free trade would a long-term relatively smooth transition, depending on the size of the barriers (tariffs, etc.)

The only damage that would be caused by the transition to complete free trade, as I've said, is that some people whose jobs are protected by artificial government barriers on trade will lose their jobs. The vast majority of everyone else, e.g. all the people who DON'T work at GM, will gain through lower prices and more accurate and efficient employment strategies.

So, again, it's Mom & Pop that will lose, but 99.9999% of all people in the world (AND in this country) are NOT Mom & Pop.

As I said in the post, the loser of free trade (like Mom & Pop or GM employees) will end up trying to redevelop their skills to work different jobs - and add more competition among laborers in these new jobs, and reduce these laborers wages and ultimately reduce prices of unrelated goods (unrelated to the original jobs lost to free trade)

The biggest, largest, hugest most important point was made in the post:

every time one job is lost to free trade, more than one job worth of resources, money and products is freed up or created by the transaction.

The only question is where these things are created or freed up: The products and the money for the products goes to a poorer country (in our example of, say, computer manufacturing) and makes that country wealthier, and the remainder goes to the purchasers of the product.

Given that Americans are such huge purchasers of products, a $100 decrease in the price of millions of computers adds up billions of dollars saved in this country AT THE COST of the relatively few jobs in this country.

---

I didn't say "people would be okay with low paying jobs," what I said was that if they knew how beneficial free trade was to the world, they would gladly sacrifice their own income for the good of their fellow countrymen and for the world.

You're assuming we'd have less money somehow, but that's not true, and it's not what I meant - I meant that when people complain about free trade, or China getting so big, they're almost always just afraid of losing their own jobs, and completely unaware of the larger benefits of free trade. Hence I did a post about it.

Nobody ever tells people - and not everybody knows a lot about trade theory - that if you lose your job to outsourcing (free trade), everyone else gets richer, and there will be more than your job worth of resources freed up, and the chances of you getting a better job are therefore increased (in the macro scale).

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I think it might be easier to summarize here, to make sure I'm being clear:

Free trade is good for the world, not bad. If you're thinking of any examples in which it's bad, you're either thinking of a very small, unrepresentative example of free trade victims, or are not getting the point:

We would all (The U.S. AND the world) get richer except for the guy whose job got outsourced. He'll have to take an economic hit until he gets a new job - as I've already said, even this has benefits for everyone else. The ONLY thing we'd have to worry about is making sure .0001% of our population - or some other ridiculously low number is not starving on the streets. As I said in the post, this is already covered.

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Your perception of the matter, Fred, I think, is that we'd get poorer from lost jobs. This is unbelievably common, and actually I think this is accepted, common knowledge - that's why I did this post, because free trade is such an unknown to your average non-economics-obsessed dude. What everyone fails to see is the relationship between resources freed by eliminating inefficiency and the equivalent resources "sucked up" by government support of inefficiency (AKA tariffs, etc...), because they're too obsessed with making outsourcing a political tool instead of realizing why it's occurring.

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The problem with me posting this, is that I'm trying to compress an entire advanced economics course into one poorly-worded blog post.

Although it has not gone well, figuring out how to explain more clearly and be more precise in my wording is pretty good for me, and I'm going to do it again... reasonably soon... Next time it'll be more topical, though, so it might be easier...