Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Gamepaign 2008: Introduction

When you choose a candidate for a political race, the majority of your appreciation of the candidate is subconscious, subjective and incredibly biased. Yes, it varies from person to person, and you might think you're completely objective and informed when picking candidates, but you're not. Did you like Al Gore? Could you explain to me why you liked HIM and not just his party? How about Nader, or Bob Dole, or even George Bush before he was elected? Do you know exactly what these candidates' thoughts are on education, abortion, the death penalty, states' rights, drug legalization, free trade, the minimum wage, environmentalism and property rights?

Of course you don't know all of that stuff. If you think you do, I'd be willing to bet that you're more likely to vote for a party, and not a person, and confuse the hell out of the two. ...But is there anything wrong with this? Yes. Yes there is. Picking a candidate by party affiliation alone is the reason we have such a solid two-party system and also why both parties - as well as the general public - seem to be so willing to prejudge people without knowing anything about them: Oh, she's a republican? Must hate the environment. A Democrat? Probably likes Roe v. Wade...

While this sure makes things easier, it also makes them more wrong.

We need to know what a candidate actually believes, what he or she actually is thinking about doing with all that power before we can cast our one, single vote. It's your duty to be as informed a voter as possible before you decide what's best for the other 300 million people in this country. That's a serious responsibility, and either you do it right or not at all, I say.

Having a gut feeling, respecting a candidate's party, or watching the candidate give speeches is not enough for an informed, objective opinion.

However, actually being objective is too much work; it's too complex and intricate and it's generally impossible to explain to other people how a single human could possibly be "the best" option for the most powerful political office in this country.

So what we really need to do is approach the candidate-choosing process with an informed, objective and fair, yet simple and efficient method. We need an unbiased system that incorporates as much information as possible but still reflects the natural way of choosing a candidate: throughout the year, every time you hear or read something about a candidate, your opinion changes or adapts. Unfortunately, the natural method leads you to form a year's worth of subconscious quasi-information that you feel is valid. It's not. While the method is great (incorporate as much information as possible and judge each bit using certain guidelines), the result is not. Our guidelines themselves will not stay standard and objective; they will adapt to fit our biases and our changing opinions. What we need is standardized guidelines, standardized rules and a context that can't change to cater to varying opinions.

So how do we get these things? How do we remain as objective as possible while making an informed and responsible decision on a candidate?

Simple. Rely on "the market" to provide the information, and rely on science to provide objectivity. Well, in this case it'll be a social science. You guessed it: Economics.

"The market" will be the 4EConglomerate, and 4EConomists will be the judge of the information. If a candidate spouts out something with economic implications, the Conglomerate will record it, judge it, score it, then debate the score until consensus.

That's assuming the market gets involved, of course.

Fortunately, I am also a member of this market, so even without the participation of loyal 4ECon readers we'll get candidate scores.

And what do I mean by scores? Well, I mean, literally, scores - As in points. If a candidate says something that has bad implications for our future economy, he or she will lose a certain amount of points. If a candidate says something shattering, he or she will lose a lot of points.

Here's the interesting part: If a candidate does a good job - or says something with great economic intuition, he or she will not gain, nor lose, any points. This will prevent bias in trying to build up candidates. If candidates can only lose points, us supporters cannot translate a favorable bias for a candidate's opinions into more points, regardless of whether those opinions are unique to the candidate or not. Make sense?

So instead of building up some candidates and knocking down others, we're going to do nothing but knock 'em down.

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So what's the point? Well, besides all the information collected and compiled in one place (the 4ECon), we'll all have an opportunity to learn differing viewpoints about what a candidate's opinions, beliefs, actions or policy promises might do for (or against) the future. This alone should make us all a little more likely to make a more informed decision on election day.

More importantly, I hereby promise to vote for the winner of the competition. That's right, I don't care who it is - If it's Giuliani, Obama, Clinton, Ron Paul, Stripe the Gremlin or even Mitt Romney, I will vote for the winner of Gamepaign 2008, provided the competition survives with updates, contributions and conversations on at least a semi-regular basis until elections (or at least until nominations.)

The reason I'm willing to do this is that, if I can somehow objectively vote for who I think will make the best economist and most decent president (two separate things, sometimes), then I should take that information and act on it, right? If the game works out the way I'm thinkin' it might, then I'll be more than happy to vote for the winner. (Because I'd be playing the same kind of game in my head all year anyway...)

And one more thing regarding purpose: I personally believe that economics is pretty much the most important thing a president should have a grasp of. I mean, he or she should be concerned about moral issues somewhat, but I do not want a religious leader as a president. While I'm concerned about other things such as the environment and privacy issues, I truly, truly believe that these problems can't be solved without having a good understanding of incentives, human behavior and proper policy - AKA "good economics."

So if anyone is already "into" the idea of this game and wants to pledge their vote to the winner, let your pledge be heard. If you don't want to bind yourself to your friends' (The Conglomerate's) opinions, or if you want to wait until the rules & candidate list are clarified, I understand. In the mean time, maybe I can think of some good incentives to make Gamepaign 2008 more enticing.

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I'll be back with a little more explanation, the official rules and the candidate list pretty soon.

If you haven't already noticed, I'm not screwing around. It's time to get political, dammit - I am totally, absolutely, completely 94% serious. Super serial.

And no, I couldn't come up with a better name than "Gamepaign."

8 comments:

Unknown said...

Count me in.

I often watch the televised debates - Democratic and Republican. As I watch these debates from this point forward, I will do my best to make notes in the manner of your point structure. I will then be glad to post them however you see fit.

One question though. Will we be starting all candidates from 0 or some other artificial number? In other words, with a candidate that does good and receives a +1, then would that then be considered '1'. Or are you also looking at graphing negative numbers, i.e. a candidate gets a -1 and then ends the debate with a -1 in the end. Or would it end up being say a 101 or a 99, respectively. Is this making sense?

Burgess said...

This has nothing to do with your post, although that's a really good idea --
I was going through my grandma's old pictures and I found one that says, "Betty Jo Foree." Do you know who this person is? She kinda looks like you, so I thought you might be related. If you know her, I'll email you the picture.

Anonymous said...

Would there be point deduction for a candidate avoiding an issue or giving a non-answer?

Darrell said...

This might be the most ambitious blog-related project I've seen.

Before I jump into the fray, let me spew an argument at you. I wouldn't consider good economic sense as the most important issue, regardless of its boundless implications. To be sure, I'd put it above moral terpitude, so I agree with you there. But I wouldn't narrow my focus too much.

I understand that an economically minded president is more likely to make logical decisions, but I would hesitate to place "good/bad policy" labels on candidates' statements. I have the distinct sense that presidents' impact on the economy is incredibly indirect. If we jump into an expensive war, that'll affect the economy. If we start deficit spending on faith-based initiatives and questionable education policy, that'll make a difference, too. But the big stuff is pretty much out of the president's hands. From what I've seen, the political tides control a president's economic policy more often than vice versa.

My example (which also might be my own example of cognitive dissonance): I'm rooting hard for Ron Paul for a variety of reasons. He'll ebb the spending, pull us out of wars, get more voters thinking "libertarially", etc. Plus, I think he'd be a great president. But I know that I'm ignoring a lot of weaknesses -- he's too religious, tends to get emotional, sometimes doesn't phrase things as diplomatically as he could...

Oh, and his economic policies leave a lot to be desired.

Look, I know it's unwise to want to abolish the Fed. I irrationally like that he wants to abolish the IRS, but to endorse the gold standard? Really? I thought I was a pretty good free marketeer, but even I'm not going that far. But my pragmatism (or cognitive dissonance) kicks in when I realize that those policies are SO ambitious that no president could possibly get both houses of Congress to agree with him on them. At best, he'd create a legislative gridlock.

The great thing is, THAT is what I want from a president. The executive was designed to be the strongest check against a potentially unstoppable legislature. I have no doubt that Ron Paul would check it into the boards.

So I'm intrigued by your experiment, and I plan on contributing to it. But if Mitt Romney does somehow end up winning this contest, I'll never forgive you. (Plus, you'd be operating on the assumption that we can trust this version of Romney, but that's another point altogether...)

-Darrell

Disposable Info said...

Fred: Awesome - It'll be easier than it sounds, as you can only take away points from candidates, not add 'em. (They'll all start with a positive score.)

This way, all you've got to do is look for things that are said by candidates you don't like. If you're feeling especially fair and unbiased, you can score all the candidates, but the basic idea is that bad things are more important than no things.


Burgess: I'm sure she's related to me somehow - In fact, the name sounds very, very familiar. I can't imagine a lady named Betty Jo looking like me, though... my email is dforee@gmail.com if you've got 'em digitized...


Zane: That depends. If you think the candidate is avoiding something "dangerous", then we can decide whether or not to make it hurt for 'em... I did a "preliminary" scoring of candidates' issues & had to take some points off of Giuliani for having so few meaningful issues available for public viewing compared with the other candidates. I'm not sure if I'm going to use these, though... we'll see...


And Darrell: You're damn right this is ambitious - however, it shouldn't be that hard - I spend so much time talking with people about politics around elections anyway that I might as well provide internet space for it...

I've decided that the only way I'm going to vote for the "best" candidate is if I really figure out what they're doing & saying & planning. As I'm registered independent, I'll vote for the winner by primary time (if this all works out.) That means that if Ron Paul is winning, I'll vote for him.

And here's the trick, which I'll get into more in a bit: The more libertarian a policy is, the better incentive it is for individuals (very often.)

By itself, this will be a positive thing for candidates.

When I said "economics" as a base for objectivity, I'm also implying that freedom & economics go hand in hand - The default assumption is that less government intervention is good for the economy in terms of public motivation and general contentment. The only time this will not be the assumption is if a policy/plan/statement by a candidate suggests that a public good's benefits might outweigh the costs (in terms of scale & scope, compared with the amount of taxation/freedom of choice/etc...)

So it's almost impossible to actually determine whether or not a socialist plan is truly worse than, say, no plan at all, because the benefits just might outweigh the costs (this is how we're convinced that our current tax rate is "acceptable," by the way...) However, figuring out the details of such policy plans is actually the point of this thing: The real benefit of "Gamepaign" is that it'll provide endless fodder for discussion, if we need topics...

And I have a feeling, Darrell, that I'm going to end up voting for Ron Paul because of this whole thing. That's as long as we can come to agreement on how many points (if any) he loses for how - not why - he plans on dismantling the Federal Reserve. Fortunately for your side, Darrell, Chris Jeffords will back you up on this one, I believe. I'm on the fence for non-economic reasons (We'll get into this more later, I'm sure...)


...And Mitt Romney isn't going to win...

Disposable Info said...

By the way, I'll post the rules (that clarify the hell out of everything) before tomorrow morning and it'll most likely start on Thursday.

Unknown said...

The most shocking thing out of all of this, is that politics' greatest critic finally registered to vote!

Disposable Info said...

I know - funny, ain't it?