Gamepaign 2008: Candidates

Gamepaign 2008:
Candidate List
10/19/2007


Before I recommend candidates for the game, I figured I'd include some extra summary information and current rankings data that might be useful before the game officially starts (on Monday, 10/22).

Remember: All contributors (players) are essentially working to find "economically incriminating" statements on any candidates they choose to follow. This can include anything from a candidate's tough stance against crime (suggesting higher gov't spending) to a candidate hinting that China is growing too powerful (increases the probably he or she will push for greater protectionism.) Everything in politics boils down to economics in some way or another...

The benefit to the players is that they are not only providing publicly incriminating information (to the 4ECon public, at least) against candidates they don't like (or even candidates they do like, if they're staying unbiased), but they are "buying" - as it stands presently - my vote.

And remember, if anyone else wants to put his or her faith in the power and rationale of a small but intelligent market (4ECon readers), let us all know you're willing to pledge your vote to the winner of Gamepaign 2008 - you'll get "debate priority" and pledge recognition (rule #10). On top of that, I dare you to do it...

Besides, what single person could possibly make a better decision for president than the 4EConglomerate acting as a group?

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We can't accurately cover all the candidates in this game, nor should we. While we should expect (and hope for) loads of new information to come to light between now and November 2008, some candidates are facing nearly impossible odds of a nomination. So I think choosing about four of the current popular and likely-to-win candidates along with, maybe, two or three of the long shots ought to make the game both more relevant and fun.

Here are some reasonably useful rankings of candidates that might do a good job of forecasting:

(Click on the images to enlarge 'em)

Ranking #1: Candidates ranked by the amount of time they spent talking during their last debate:

In terms of audience captivation and confidence to trample preset time limits, I'd say this list gives us a pretty firm view of the current and future front runners: Clinton, Thompson, Giuliani, Romney and Obama.

Ranking #2: A CBS News Poll random survey of public expectations (I'd say this is a pretty weak indicator so far in advance of elections...)

This ranking suggests Clinton, Giuliani, Obama, Thompson and Edwards. Notice that Al Gore is in there, two spots later...


Ranking #4: Gallup polls, taken throughout the year, of Republican voters' preferences for their party's nomination:

If we took three candidates from this list they'd be Giuliani, Thompson and McCain.


Ranking #5: Gallup polls, taken throughout the year, of Democratic voters' preferences for their party's nomination:
The top three here are, of course, Clinton, Obama and Edwards. It could be my imagination, but when I look carefully at the time series changes in this graph I get the sense that Edwards supporters would become Clinton voters if Edwards dropped out. Actually, it looks more like Edwards voters just don't like Obama, as every other candidate's numbers seem to rise when his fall... A Southern thing, perhaps?

Just kiddin'... Kind of...


Ranking #6: This is the ranking provided by Intrade.com's prediction markets. The "Last Trade" column indicates, basically, the market-based probability that the candidate will win the election. This is a fairly useful tool, even 12+ months away from the election, as the people involved have money on the line and are, by the nature of the market, more motivated to find and relay (through their bets) useful and accurate information:


If we were to take all six Gamepaign candidates from this ranking, we'd get Clinton, Giuliani, Romney, Obama, Thompson, and Ron Paul. Check out Intrade.com, it's a ton of fun.

Assuming Al Gore stays out (who is favored to win the presidency over the majority of the other candidates even while promising not to run...), Stephen Colbert doesn't make it past Edward's home state of South Carolina and Mike Randolph doesn't get on any primary ballots, my candidate list suggestion is this:

• Clinton
• Giuliani
• Obama
• Romney
  
• Ron Paul
  
• Thompson
  

... Oh, what the hell:

• ...And Mike Randolph
  

Mike Randolph is one of the more reticent candidates, though - he hasn't provided too many policy promises in the past. Plus, I have a feeling he's kind of a long shot. We'll just have to see if he provides good debate fodder...

And yes, he's running for president now instead of District 12 of the state senate.

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As far as I'm aware, that list should satisfy every one of the Gamepaign players that have made their voices heard so far. This list is debatable until next month, so if you want to add or remove candidates, comment away...

...And one final reminder: If your favorite candidate has a head for policy matters, he or she has better odds of winning this game and thus receiving my vote - if not others' votes - in both the primary and final elections. While it's possible a vote for a long-shot candidate may not "count," at least your desire for political debate is guaranteed to get someone to agree with you (vote-wise).